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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 12th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-13 03:26:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 12th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Hefner NYM 101.0 3.39 3.99 1.20 58.8% 18.8% 6.7% 1.25 1.20
Morton PIT 24.0 3.38 3.84 1.33 0.0% 16.5% 8.3% 0.75 3.17
Diamond MIN 88.0 5.52 4.72 1.53 31.3% 11.1% 5.5% 1.53 1.47
Kuroda NYY 113.2 2.77 3.89 1.03 61.1% 17.5% 4.9% 0.95 1.34
Buehrle TOR 110.0 4.50 4.36 1.36 44.4% 15.2% 6.3% 1.06 1.25
Tillman BAL 105.2 3.92 4.34 1.34 44.4% 19.0% 9.0% 1.53 0.91
Danks CWS 56.1 4.31 3.79 1.10 33.3% 18.0% 3.1% 1.76 1.00
Pettibone PHI 84.1 3.84 4.41 1.38 33.3% 15.2% 7.5% 0.96 1.44
Grimm TEX 85.2 5.88 4.31 1.58 25.0% 16.9% 7.5% 1.58 1.23
Fister DET 115.0 4.07 3.31 1.23 44.4% 18.1% 4.1% 0.63 2.52
Chen KCR 33.2 2.41 4.53 1.46 First Start 16.0% 8.7% 0.80 0.70
Kluber CLE 87.1 4.23 3.16 1.28 38.5% 23.6% 5.2% 1.13 1.52
Cosart HOU Debut
Price TBR 71.0 4.18 3.34 1.27 45.5% 21.8% 4.8% 1.14 1.64
Strasburg WAS 106.1 2.45 3.31 1.06 58.8% 25.0% 7.7% 0.68 1.61
Eovaldi MIA 24.2 2.55 4.93 1.01 75.0% 13.7% 9.5% 0.73 1.35
Arroyo CIN 116.2 3.55 4.40 1.17 55.6% 13.7% 4.6% 1.23 1.16
Medlen ATL 109.2 3.45 4.16 1.33 38.9% 17.2% 6.5% 0.98 1.29
Gorzelanny MIL 46.2 2.12 3.41 1.11 50.0% 24.7% 10.2% 0.96 1.33
Corbin ARI 123.2 2.40 3.70 0.98 77.8% 20.4% 6.4% 0.65 1.41
Lackey BOS 93.1 2.80 3.18 1.15 66.7% 22.9% 4.9% 1.25 1.54
Parker OAK 107.0 4.04 4.55 1.24 44.4% 16.7% 8.6% 1.35 1.02
Williams LAA 88.2 4.16 4.37 1.31 63.6% 14.9% 7.5% 1.12 1.38
Saunders SEA 107.2 4.51 4.56 1.42 55.6% 12.1% 6.7% 1.09 1.74
Nicasio COL 81.1 5.31 4.50 1.46 18.8% 15.4% 8.2% 1.11 1.47
Kershaw LAD 138.1 1.89 3.32 0.90 68.4% 24.3% 6.4% 0.46 1.32
Gaudin SFG 59.0 2.44 3.77 1.12 60.0% 20.9% 8.0% 0.61 0.97
O’Sullivan SDP Debut

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. MIN) – You don’t often see a pitcher with a 2.77 ERA and a track record to back it up at such a prime price. Kuroda, coming off of seven shutout innings against the Orioles, might just be benefitting from a host of big names throwing today, but he turns up in the bottom half of the top 10 at the high end and well out of it at some sites making him a great target against a modest Twins team. Add in the fact that Kuroda has a 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home (compared to 3.65/1.09 on the road) and it’s almost a no-brainer.

jeremy-hefner-300x200

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (at PIT) – He is still being overlooked, but Hefner has been amazing of late. In fact, since June 1st he has baseball’s best ERA at 1.64. He has also posted a 1.07 WHIP, 20% K rate, and 4.6 K/BB ratio in his 44 IP during that span. I understand why attention is put on Matt Harvey and shades toward Zack Wheeler – especially since he’s been better recently, too – but don’t forget about Hefner. His price is still great at most outlets despite the recent surge. He’s a tremendous buy at DraftDay and DraftKings.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (v. MIL) – Everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop just gets more disappointed with each passing start. Sure he has his bumps (5 ER at NYM), but he always bounces back (8 IP, 1 ER, 10 K after the NYM outing) and he has a real case to start the All-Star game (though I’m fine with Harvey getting the nod) for the National League. The presence of other aces today keeps him from being the most expensive arm anywhere. As such, I’d take Corbin and the savings over Stras or Price despite their better matchups. Speaking of, the Brewers are at 716 OPS against lefties this year, just over the 706 league average, but their 576 in the last calendar month is the second-worst in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at MIA) – The investment is steep, but it should be when you’re buying one of baseball’s absolute best. Strasburg’s season is still being overlooked to some degree. Maybe it is because of his 5-6 record? Who knows? He’s a superstar and he gets the worst offense in baseball in their very pitcher-friendly environment, this could be ugly… for the Marlins.

david-price-300x200

David Price, TB (v. HOU) – The reigning AL Cy Young is starting to look like as much in his return from injury with two excellent outings including one against these Astros during which he threw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. He gets them again 10 days later and there is no reason to expect the results to be much different. His price is back up where you would expect it for someone of his caliber except now he’s actually worth it.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. COL) – He’s the most expensive arm at every outlet and yet he’s somehow still worth it. That’s what happens when you’re the best pitcher in baseball. He hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any outing this year (and he’s only done that twice), he’s gone six innings in 17 of 19 outings, and he’s fanned at least seven in 10 of 19. Sure he’ll cost you, but you’re paying for the incredible consistency. I personally prefer some of the other aces and the financial savings that come with them to fatten up my offense, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for building a budget lineup with Kershaw as their arm.

John Danks, CWS (at PHI) – Priced to buy, Danks has been working his way back from an injury that pushed his Opening Day to May 24th and he’s looked tremendous in his last three outings with a 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 21.3 IP of work which includes a 16/3 K/BB, too. His composite numbers aren’t special and he only has three gems (his last three starts) in nine starts, but I like him tonight in Philly. The Phillies aren’t bad against lefties with a 716 OPS which ranks 10th, but is only 10 points over league average. They’ve been at a 693 in the last month which puts them 17th. If you’re looking to save money for a powerful offense in the big tournaments, Danks should be among your top pitcher considerations.

Corey Kluber, CLE (v. KC) – His skills are far better than the 4.23 ERA he has been saddled with as we see in his 3.53 FIP and 3.16 SIERA. However the elevated ERA keeps his price down making him a very enticing buy. His biggest issue has been home runs as his 15.5% HR/FB rate has yielded 1.1 HR/9. The Royals have the second-fewest homers against righties in baseball with just 45. Only the Marlins (35) have fewer.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

john-lackey-300x200

John Lackey, BOS (at OAK) – He’s been amazing this year, there is no disputing that. The only reason he’s down here is because he has to face a solid Oakland lineup and he’s super-expensive (rightfully so) so you might find a better value elsewhere. Plus I think Jarrod Parker will hold his own against the Sox lineup which could turn it into a pitcher’s duel. Even accounting for the rise in strikeouts league-wide, this still might be Lackey’s best performance ever. He’s just been so good. If there is one thing to watch for, it’s the home runs. That’s going to happen when you pound the zone the way he has, but his 15.5% HR/FB and 1.3 HR/9 rates are high for an ace.

Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. WAS) – I bumped Eovaldi down here because he is squaring off against Strasburg which severely limits his win potential, but he has been excellent this year and he costs next-to-nothing at virtually every outlet. I love him at sites using multiple pitchers or ones that don’t put so much focus on the pitcher win. In the big tournaments where you almost have to get a pitcher to compete for the top prizes, I can’t recommend Eovaldi. Pitcher wins are a total crapshoot, but we can map out those who have high probability and as a Marlin, that isn’t Eovaldi tonight.

Jerome Williams, LAA (at SEA) – Williams has been smashed in his last two outings, but they were against St. Louis and Boston, two of the toughest teams in the game. The Mariners aren’t a complete rollover, but they are far from that class of offense. Williams tossed eight shutout innings against them earlier this year with six strikeouts, too. Unfortunately he has to face Joe Saunders, who is a completely different pitcher at home.

Jarrod Parker, OAK (v. BOS) – When he entered his May 11th start, Parker had a 7.34 ERA as his first seven starts had been nothing short of a disaster. He managed a quality start in that outing pushing his ERA down to 6.86, but it spurred a two-month run during which he has the second-best AL ERA (trailing only teammate Bartolo Colon). He has 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 72.7 IP during the 11-start surge and just to give you an idea of how much damage those first seven starts inflicted, consider that his season ERA is still 4.04 even after the dominance. Boston is tough for anyone, so despite the nice price and excellent work of late, he still carries some risk.

Chad Gaudin, SF (at SD) – Gaudin has been surprisingly awesome in most of his starts this year. In fact, he’s got a gem in three of five and he was headed toward a fourth in his start against Miami before coming out with an injury after 4.3 IP. Only Atlanta got to him (4 ER in 5 IP). The Padres have been a disaster of late with the league’s worst OPS against righties in the last calendar month at 617 which has pushed their season total down to 681, third-worst in MLB. His price is still really low making him a sneaky-strong option, especially at sites using more than one arm. A budget arm like Gaudin can help you afford an ace without hindering your ability to build a good lineup.

Joe Saunders, SEA (v. LAA) – Saunders has flipped the script in his last five with four brilliant outings on the road and his only bad start coming at home against the lowly Pirates offense, but he still has a 3.56 ERA at home compared to a 5.28 on the road for the season. I’m honestly not a fan, but I can’t argue with the fact that he’s gotten the job done more often than not.

Jonathan Pettibone, PHI (v. CWS) – Pettibone has a 2.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last four starts and now gets a start against one of the worst teams in the league in a venue where he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 47.7 IP. The White Sox have the sixth-worst OPS against righties this year at 698 and even with their massacre of Justin Verlander earlier this week, they are still at 628 over the last calendar month which is also the sixth-worst mark in the league. The downside with Pettibone is that he doesn’t go deep into games which cuts win probability just because it leaves too much of the game to the bullpen. He hasn’t gone more than six since May 19th and he didn’t even finish the sixth in his last two outings, both wins. But he is dirt-cheap with a great matchup so he’s still worth a look.
Kris Medlen, ATL (v. CIN) – For what he can do, his price isn’t too bad, but he’s been inconsistent this year… well, except when it comes to giving up hits which he’s done with far too much frequency resulting in 115 hits allowed over 109.7 IP. That puts a lot of pressure on him to wiggle out of traffic and the starts where he can’t do so effectively become disasters. The Reds are scarier on paper than in actuality as they are just 17th in OPS against righties at 716 and even worse in the last calendar month at 667 (26th) so with that and his price, he squeezes into the Good Buys, but you can probably do better.

Mark Buehrle, TOR (at BAL) – As scary as the Orioles offense is, they are league average against lefties with a 706 OPS and that’s on the decline as they’ve been at 608 in the last calendar month (good for fourth-worst). Buehrle, meanwhile, is on the rise posting a 2.93 ERA in his last seven starts after a 5.51 during the first two months of the season. He is still a non-factor when it comes to strikeouts (just 14% during the run of excellence), but he makes a solid second or third arm if you are just hoping to get a solid start with the chance of a win.

Charlie Morton, PIT (v. NYM) – Don’t let the fact that he hasn’t thrown a single gem this year completely dissuade you from Morton. He’s only started five games and they’ve managed his pitch counts to the point where he’s yet to reach even 100 in an outing, thus he’s only reached six innings once. Nevertheless, he still isn’t much more than a secondary, low-dollar option with a modicum of upside. He gets a modest Mets offense that ranks as the fourth-worst against righties with a 682 OPS, but his teammates aren’t much better offensively and they are facing an even tougher arm in Jeremy Hefner so Morton’s win probability is scant.

USE CAUTION:

Chris Tillman, BAL (v. TOR) – Buehrle’s opponent is the worse of the two buys despite better numbers across the board – including the ability to actually miss some bats regularly – because he costs more without providing that much higher of a ceiling. In fact, Tillman does his best work on the road so the home start lowers that ceiling. He has a 4.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 1.7 K/BB ratio at home in 58 IP compared to a 3.40, 1.36, and 2.8 in 48 road IP.

Doug Fister, DET (v. TEX) – I’m a huge fan of Fister and his price has fallen on the heels of back-to-back 6 ER outings, but he’s still someone to be cautious of today even with a struggling Rangers offense coming to town. They ripped him for 5 ER in just 4.7 IP back in May and even with their recent failures they are still the seventh-ranked offense against righties with a 758 OPS (650 in the last month). Fister is a mystery as he can look so good for months at a time, but then he will have these implosions like the outing in Texas or the two most recent outings. I’m preaching caution here for those who would consider him as their only starter. At sites using multiple arms, his price is too nice not to consider as a secondary arm.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (at ATL) – His last three starts are a perfect microcosm of why I’m always cautious with him: 7 ER, 1 ER, and 3 ER. Oddly enough (given the hitter friendliness of his home ballpark), all three of his worst outings are on the road.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Jarred Cosart, HOU (at TB) – The hard-throwing righty makes his MLB debut and strikeouts should be present immediately, but the other components (and especially command & control) will likely take some time.

Scott Diamond, MIN (at NYY) – Lefty homer machine in arguably the worst park to be such a pitcher.

Tom Gorzelanny, MIL (at ARI) – He was great in his last outing v. NYM, but he has to be near-perfect to go deep into the game as he’s relieved most of the year. Not worth the hassle.

Justin Grimm, TEX (at DET) – There is just no upside here. Sure he wasn’t bad in his May outing against DET (6.7 IP/2 ER), but there are too many budget arms available to mess around here.

Juan Nicasio, COL (at LAD) – He hasn’t been good this year and he’s facing Kershaw.

Bruce Chen, KC (at CLE) – I’m not messing with the 36 year old’s first start of the season.

ADVANCED METRICS: July 12th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Hefner 0.370 4.60 0.258 2.51 0.245 0.707 0.268 4.25 0.240 82.83 63.2%
Morton 0.363 5.59 0.329 1.93 0.235 0.685 0.284 4.53 0.245 53.60 61.9%
Diamond 0.431 5.73 0.368 5.51 0.236 0.650 0.329 5.08 0.318 86.69 62.7%
Kuroda 0.311 3.08 0.243 2.49 0.243 0.704 0.246 3.68 0.222 92.78 63.9%
Buehrle 0.305 4.36 0.351 4.62 0.248 0.708 0.300 4.26 0.271 95.39 62.3%
Tillman 0.320 3.92 0.342 4.07 0.250 0.744 0.281 4.88 0.254 97.33 62.1%
Danks 0.391 6.32 0.287 3.57 0.248 0.719 0.265 4.68 0.252 81.67 66.8%
Pettibone 0.371 4.73 0.299 3.12 0.249 0.686 0.302 4.29 0.271 88.00 61.8%
Grimm 0.391 7.04 0.355 4.66 0.283 0.785 0.331 4.88 0.299 85.19 61.8%
Fister 0.284 4.39 0.349 3.64 0.264 0.757 0.317 3.30 0.268 97.78 64.4%
Chen 0.392 3.75 0.310 1.71 0.262 0.757 0.306 4.14 0.267 27.74 65.1%
Kluber 0.339 4.44 0.334 4.03 0.253 0.685 0.335 3.52 0.272 79.94 64.5%
Cosart 0.248 0.730
Price 0.314 5.06 0.333 4.02 0.254 0.724 0.328 3.59 0.274 86.73 66.4%
Strasburg 0.314 3.66 0.257 1.53 0.235 0.627 0.266 3.22 0.207 92.88 62.9%
Eovaldi 0.262 2.31 0.249 2.77 0.249 0.709 0.197 4.16 0.186 64.75 64.5%
Arroyo 0.360 4.42 0.267 2.68 0.255 0.752 0.262 4.36 0.250 85.61 66.6%
Medlen 0.338 3.75 0.332 3.21 0.248 0.719 0.298 4.01 0.261 92.28 65.4%
Gorzelanny 0.298 2.50 0.263 1.88 0.256 0.693 0.246 3.84 0.200 18.12 60.1%
Corbin 0.200 2.10 0.283 2.52 0.265 0.723 0.238 3.29 0.200 91.50 65.2%
Lackey 0.266 2.68 0.355 3.03 0.249 0.719 0.286 3.70 0.242 88.87 66.4%
Parker 0.335 4.55 0.311 3.54 0.291 0.837 0.255 4.83 0.238 86.06 62.6%
Williams 0.349 4.46 0.322 4.00 0.240 0.699 0.277 4.43 0.255 57.95 64.0%
Saunders 0.222 2.51 0.399 5.29 0.241 0.696 0.301 4.52 0.283 89.72 59.5%
Nicasio 0.328 5.27 0.371 5.40 0.262 0.716 0.297 4.47 0.268 91.31 63.1%
Kershaw 0.180 1.59 0.252 1.99 0.263 0.727 0.233 2.62 0.183 101.95 65.3%
Gaudin 0.325 2.45 0.232 2.50 0.241 0.680 0.261 3.27 0.215 34.91 63.5%
O’Sullivan 0.258 0.699

Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 12th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

(fancy)

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.