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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 30th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-30 19:17:41

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 30th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Norris HOU 126.0 3.93 4.50 1.41 42.9% 16.6% 8.0% 0.79 0.98
Chen BAL 68.0 2.78 4.86 1.18 45.5% 13.6% 6.3% 0.66 0.73
Rienzo CWS
Kazmir CLE 100.0 3.96 3.87 1.26 44.4% 21.5% 8.4% 1.26 1.27
Strasburg WAS 123.1 2.85 3.25 1.07 60.0% 25.5% 7.6% 0.80 1.57
Sanchez DET 104.0 2.68 3.11 1.19 58.8% 27.7% 7.7% 0.43 1.31
Lyons STL 32.2 5.51 4.47 1.29 52.4% 15.3% 8.0% 0.83 1.47
Gomez PIT 55.2 2.59 4.08 1.10 15.0% 8.4% 0.81 2.26
Zito SFG 108.0 4.92 4.88 1.67 14.6% 9.1% 0.92 1.03
Lannan PHI 56.2 4.13 4.32 1.36 12.7% 6.2% 0.32 1.94
Nicasio COL 100.1 4.40 4.34 1.31 16.4% 7.9% 0.99 1.43
Wood ATL 26.1 3.42 2.70 1.29 27.9% 9.0% 0.00 2.85
Kennedy ARI 119.0 5.22 4.27 1.40 19.2% 8.6% 1.29 0.91
Hernandez TBR 113.1 4.92 3.69 1.32 17.6% 5.4% 1.43 2.00
Wheeler NYM 38.2 3.72 4.82 1.42 28.6% 18.1% 11.7% 1.63 0.88
Eovaldi MIA 40.2 3.54 4.74 1.20 57.1% 16.3% 10.2% 0.89 1.26
Saunders SEA 124.2 4.48 4.47 1.48 52.4% 13.3% 7.2% 1.01 1.81
Workman BOS 14.1 4.40 3.53 1.12 100.0% 22.8% 5.3% 1.26 0.67
Wilson LAA 135.2 3.18 3.93 1.28 52.4% 21.5% 9.0% 0.66 1.35
Holland TEX 141.0 3.06 3.68 1.26 57.1% 22.0% 6.8% 0.57 1.12
Thornburg MIL 18.1 2.95 4.18 1.20 First Start 14.3% 6.5% 0.49 1.20
Arrieta CHC 23.2 7.23 4.99 1.77 0.0% 20.7% 15.3% 0.76 1.00
Santana KCR 138.1 3.06 3.71 1.08 55.0% 19.4% 5.4% 1.11 1.41
Pelfrey MIN 94.1 5.15 4.72 1.51 16.7% 13.4% 6.8% 0.86 1.14
Buehrle TOR 132.0 4.50 4.21 1.33 16.0% 6.1% 1.09 1.37
Straily OAK 91.1 4.43 4.09 1.17 19.7% 7.4% 0.79 0.85
Pettitte NYY 110.2 4.39 4.15 1.36 16.1% 6.1% 0.98 1.45
Greinke LAD 98.0 3.49 4.10 1.27 18.4% 7.6% 0.83 1.42
Latos CIN 132.2 3.39 3.43 1.28 52.4% 24.0% 7.2% 0.75 1.36
Volquez SDP 120.0 5.70 4.35 1.60 36.4% 18.3% 10.1% 0.83 1.63

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

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Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. HOU) – I’ve been hyping Chen a bit lately and yet this might be my favorite of his most recent starts. He gets the whiff-prone Astros which means he should generate a few more Ks than normal. He’s only topped five once this year and four is his high since returning from the disabled list, but the Stros strike out 27% of the time against lefties. They have a league average OPS (700), but it’s just 639 on the road – third worst in baseball. Chen’s price is on the rise as he has 11 starts with a sub-3.00 ERA now, but he’s worth it today.

Scott Kazmir, CLE (v. CWS) – Kazmir has had an excellent July (2.03 ERA), but his success extends back into late-June as he’s on a seven-start run of 1.60 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 45 IP with a 21% K rate and perhaps most impressive of all: a 7% BB rate. He hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of his last four outings including shutting down the white-hot Mariners to one hit over eight innings. The White Sox, meanwhile, are the AL’s worst and baseball’s second-worst team against lefties with a 617 OPS.

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Mat Latos, CIN (at SD) – I have an admitted bias toward value with SPs, but if you don’t share that same bias then vault Latos to the top of the rankings as he’s the most talented of this initial trio, but he comes at a price. Just for a quick comparison, he costs $2,000 more than Chen and $2,100 more than Kaz. Of course there is benefit to that cost with the great park, matchup, and elite-level talent. The best is multi-pitch sites where you can lay the foundation with a Latos and then save some money with some lower priced best buys.

Ervin Santana, KC (at MIN) – He’s been brilliant in his last two. In fact, even with an eight run mashing in the Bronx, he still has a 2.78 ERA in his last 10 starts dating back to June 2nd. That particular start is the only one in the 10-game stretch where he failed to go at least six innings, too. He has a gem (8 IP/1 ER on Apr 8th) and a quality start (6 IP/3 ER on Jun 30th) against the Twins this year.

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. NYY) – Greinke still gets the superstar treatment, but that’s not who he has been this year. His strikeout rate (18%) is the lowest it’s been since 2006 and his walk rate (8%) is at its highest since that same 2006 season. He’s still good and he gets a modest Yankees offense to pick on, but divorce the name value from what he has actually been this year.

John Lannan, PHI (v. SF) – When Lannan has a juicy matchup, he is good at taking advantage. He had back-to-back outings against WAS and CWS – baseball’s two worst against lefties – and he threw a pair of 8 IP gems allowing just one run, eight hits, and three walks. The Giants aren’t much ahead of the Nats and Sox at 24th. Lannan has a 2.73 ERA at home (compared to 6.08 away) and he’s dirt cheap so while the Ks that I generally gravitate toward aren’t there, I like this matchup a lot.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. WAS) / Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at DET) – These are matchups that necessitated the good buys section as a differentiator from the best buys. Sanchez and Stras are both still elite-level talents, but squaring off against each slices heavily into their win probability and that’s before we even get into the fact that Detroit is a top offense capable of bringing any pitcher to his knees and the Washington offense is capable of the very same, although they’ve shown it far less often this year. If you were going to dabble in this matchup, I’d lean with Sanchez, but at their cost there just doesn’t seem to be much upside.

c.j.-wilson-300x200

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at TEX) / Derek Holland, TEX (v. LAA) – This matchup is just a tick below the WAS-DET one, but the same principles apply. Where it differs is familiarity as these two are divisional foes. Wilson has yet to face his former teammates this year, but he faced them seven times last year (including two days in a row) and was tattooed with a 7.65 ERA, but he’s been markedly better this year and I’m interested to see if he can he can keep his hot streak (1.55 ERA in Jul; 2.41 since Jun) going in a familiar ballpark. Holland, meanwhile, has a pair of outings against the Angels this year. Both were in April including his season debut. He excelled in that outing going 7 IP/2ER on April 5th, but nearly three weeks later on April 22nd they roughed him up for a 5.7 IP/6 ER outing.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (at MIA) – He’s obviously not besting Harvey at all, but we’re seeing glimpses of why many thought he was actually the better of the two prospects. And he may well be, though he clearly isn’t just yet. He has a 2.78 ERA in July, though the 1.37 WHIP is high which is why I noted that we’ve only seen glimpses of his potential. Command and control are the missing pieces with 4 HRs and 10 BBs allowed this month as well as least 2 BBs allowed in all of his 7 starts. This is a juicy matchup in Miami, though, and he’s priced lower than this next guy so he gets the nod despite being the less talented of the two.

Jake Peavy, CWS (at CWS) – UPDATE: Peavy has been scratched. Andre Rienzo will start in his place. Like Houston’s Norris, Peavy is on high trade alert, so if you make an early lineup with him you’d be stay glued to the news and make sure he actually makes the start. His stuff has actually been sharper than his modest 4.15 ERA would suggest in his two starts since coming back from the DL, but homers have sunk him as he’s allowed four in the 13 IP. They have accounted for all six earned runs (two other unearned are on his record) and yet I’m still encouraged thanks in part to the 10/2 K/BB as well as the aforementioned sharp-looking stuff. He had his best start of the year in Cleveland back in April (7 IP/1 ER/11 K) and their offensive surge in July has been built off of lefties (793 OPS) as they are at 693 against righties – 20th in MLB.

Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. NYM) – Of course when I fade one of my favorite dudes this year, he goes off. Eovaldi was shaky in a pair of outings heading into Colorado so I eased off and he throws six scoreless in a no-decision. The stuff is evident if you watch him for any amount of time, but the proper deployment of it is still being learned which breeds inconsistency. Yet, I still like him as a low-dollar secondary option in just his third home start of the year. The Mets are surging offensively in July, but like the Indians, it has come against lefties (778 OPS, 6th in MLB) as they’ve been league average against righties.

Mark Buehrle, TOR (at OAK) – This has little to do with his shutout against the Astros which can’t be used as predictive because of how much worse they are than just about every other team. Buehrle has been solid for a while with a 3.36 ERA over his last 14 starts. And while it’s still below average, his 17% K rate during the run (and 16% for the season) is much higher than we’re used to seeing from him, even when you account for the heavy strikeout era.

USE CAUTION:

Dan Straily, OAK (v. TOR) – The young Straily has still been too inconsistent trust inherently on a start-to-start basis and while the Blue Jays are a neutered version of themselves on the road, they can still leave the yard as they proved on Monday night with three homers again A.J. Griffin. Straily has basically been the same home and away so getting the Jays in the cavernous O.co park isn’t necessarily a major advantage.

brandon-workman-300x200

Brandon Workman, BOS (v. SEA) – This has less (if anything) to do with Workman getting trounced in his major league debut by these very same Mariners (2 IP/3 ER in relief) than it does the fact that the M’s are rolling right and putting them in a hitter’s haven like Fenway is dangerous. Their July surge has them just three points from the top 10 in OPS against righties. They have an 878 mark this month that is tops in baseball and by a real margin over the Tigers, who are at 854. We’ve seen the rookie throw well in his first two starts as a big leaguer, but I don’t like this spot against the M’s.

Roberto Hernandez, TB (v. ARI) – Yes, he’s better than his 4.93 ERA, but not that much because he still allows far too many home runs. No one is mistaking the D’Backs for an explosive offense, but they have some punch and while I think his win probability is solid, it might come with a 6 IP/4 ER line yielding a rather “blah” score.

Bud Norris, HOU (at BAL) – Norris might not even make this start if he’s traded in the afternoon, but assuming he does it’s still one to be cautious of for us daily players. Apart from the fact that his ERA is three runs higher on the road (2.92 to 5.91 – it was an even starker contrast last year so this isn’t new), the O’s are rocking a 791 OPS against righties this year that sits behind only Boston (818).

Andy Pettitte, NYY (at LAD) – He’s given up 73 hits in his last 10 starts (61.3 IP) and has a 9.9 H/9 rate on the season yielding a 1.36 WHIP and it’s reflected in the 4.39 ERA. The Dodgers have the 9th-best OPS v. lefties this month at 763. The only redeeming factor is the 29% K rate they have, too, but I still don’t think that’s enough to coax me into using Pettitte. He’s just not the former stud of yesteryear.

Mike Pelfrey, MIN (v. KC) – I just don’t trust his 2.28 ERA this month despite it coming against solid talent (TOR, TB, CLE, LAA), but if you were ever going to use him, this would be the time. He’s surging and the Royals don’t exactly impose their will offensively. My personal preference is “never, ever” with Pelfrey, but I’d be doing y’all a disservice if I didn’t point out his recent success.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Ian Kennedy, ARI (at TB) – He’s just a fundamentally different pitcher than the 2011 start or even the 2012 solid asset. The Rays are a different offense at full health and with Wil Myers, they aren’t to be taken lightly.

Alex Wood, ATL (v. COL) – While the Rockies aren’t hitting much away from home (last night not included obviously), Wood still has lots to prove as a starter and his next 5 IP will be his first as a major leaguer. Too much risk, not nearly enough potential payoff.

Jeanmar Gomez, PIT (v. STL) – The Cards have lost four straight, a trend unlikely to continue. Gomez has spent the month relieving and gets this spot start in the backend of a doubleheader so even if he does manage to shut them down, he won’t get much more than five innings – a figure he eclipsed just once in his previous eight starts.

edinson-volquez-300x200

Edinson Volquez, SD (v. CIN) – Did you get confident after his 6 IP/1 ER gem in Fenway? Well, all he’s done since is post a 7.84 ERA in four starts including an 8 ER massacre at home against SF. There is no rhyme or reason to his success and failure.

Juan Nicasio, COL (at ATL) – He’s weirdly terrible on the road despite calling Coors home with a 4.91 ERA and 1.5 K/BB compared to 3.86 and 2.8 at home.

Tyler Thornburg, MIL (at CHC) – It’s his first start in the majors this year so he’s likely to be held to a low innings or pitch count and he’s been miserable in AAA this year.

Jake Arrieta, CHC (v. MIL) – It’s his sixth starts in the majors, but he’s been horrendous in the first five (7.23 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) and he’s been hit-and-miss in AAA as a Cub.

Joe Saunders, SEA (at BOS) – He has a 5.26 road ERA with a 10% K rate and 1.4 K/BB ratio in 65 IP.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

ADVANCED METRICS: July 30th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Norris 0.374 5.24 0.285 2.51 0.277 0.791 0.316 3.87 0.273 97.86 64.3%
Chen 0.262 3.05 0.314 2.68 0.248 0.700 0.274 3.70 0.248 94.36 65.5%
Rienzo 0.253 0.739
Kazmir 0.241 2.94 0.369 4.55 0.233 0.641 0.277 4.17 0.238 94.89 64.9%
Strasburg 0.302 3.79 0.272 2.13 0.284 0.784 0.265 3.28 0.208 98.90 62.9%
Sanchez 0.306 3.55 0.260 1.88 0.249 0.705 0.319 2.39 0.231 100.53 64.5%
Lyons 0.378 9.00 0.309 4.38 0.247 0.709 0.277 4.05 0.248 76.67 65.0%
Gomez 0.298 3.70 0.271 1.45 0.284 0.761 0.223 4.12 0.205 46.78 61.9%
Zito 0.446 4.34 0.359 5.15 0.243 0.708 0.350 4.35 0.310 94.20 61.7%
Lannan 0.339 3.97 0.331 4.30 0.261 0.689 0.313 3.41 0.276 91.10 63.2%
Nicasio 0.313 4.69 0.333 4.21 0.252 0.738 0.275 4.16 0.246 92.26 62.7%
Wood 0.240 2.79 0.302 3.86 0.254 0.695 0.343 1.82 0.238 27.24 63.3%
Kennedy 0.374 5.91 0.326 4.62 0.249 0.732 0.298 4.59 0.260 101.45 63.6%
Hernandez 0.386 6.13 0.289 3.60 0.256 0.716 0.306 4.53 0.276 95.37 65.1%
Wheeler 0.401 4.91 0.304 3.04 0.234 0.620 0.255 5.57 0.236 100.14 58.1%
Eovaldi 0.254 3.63 0.324 3.52 0.235 0.682 0.237 4.24 0.215 88.14 62.7%
Saunders 0.231 2.56 0.402 5.18 0.250 0.714 0.315 4.33 0.289 96.57 59.6%
Workman 0.242 3.60 0.431 6.75 0.249 0.732 0.282 3.67 0.241 84.33 64.0%
Wilson 0.274 3.08 0.306 3.22 0.255 0.715 0.287 3.41 0.232 110.24 63.4%
Holland 0.298 3.55 0.312 2.95 0.239 0.695 0.316 2.91 0.253 103.29 66.3%
Thornburg 0.248 4.50 0.365 1.13 0.248 0.717 0.276 3.69 0.243 51.67 59.7%
Arrieta 0.323 5.14 0.444 10.61 0.254 0.715 0.343 4.60 0.272 89.40 60.6%
Santana 0.286 2.47 0.306 3.92 0.239 0.692 0.258 3.81 0.229 101.00 65.1%
Pelfrey 0.342 4.33 0.374 6.35 0.254 0.686 0.332 4.10 0.300 93.22 60.7%
Buehrle 0.296 4.66 0.345 4.52 0.240 0.727 0.297 4.19 0.267 101.81 63.1%
Straily 0.312 5.23 0.280 3.80 0.254 0.752 0.270 3.65 0.228 88.25 65.9%
Pettitte 0.276 3.60 0.350 4.73 0.266 0.735 0.309 3.95 0.274 95.22 65.2%
Greinke 0.376 4.40 0.260 2.85 0.244 0.684 0.293 3.81 0.251 99.19 60.6%
Latos 0.337 3.55 0.296 3.33 0.243 0.678 0.315 3.06 0.247 99.95 66.1%
Volquez 0.369 6.02 0.342 5.43 0.254 0.730 0.333 3.99 0.280 96.32 60.6%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 30th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.