Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 11th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-11 19:52:59

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 11th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Max Scherzer, DET (at KC) – Scherzer has given up posted a 1.86 ERA in his latest four game stretch that included three opponents (BAL, TB, and CLE) in the top eight for OPS. The Orioles got to him most with three runs in eight innings, but he struck out 10 of them while allowing three hits and a pair of walks. Scherzer pulls the clean sweep today as the top priced arm at every outlet. That is exactly how it should be as he mixes top talent with the best matchup.

Jon Lester, BOS (at TB) – Lackey and Cobb gave up a combined 10 runs in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel on Monday night so who knows what Lester and Roberto Hernandez have planned for an encore. Lester has been really average of late, though admittedly the competition has been particularly fierce including a CLE-NYY-TEX stretch in his last three. He’s faced these Rays twice and held them to just three runs in 14 innings.

Cole Hamels, PHI (at MIN) – Hamels decidedly hasn’t been himself this year, but we have two things working here that keep him in high esteem for at least today: his price has dwindled at just about every outlet and he’s facing the Twins. The Twins haven’t been completely awful offensively, but their 21st-ranked OPS gives Hamels a second straight match against a bottom 10 team. So then you have the conundrum: do you dive in because we have an ace-talent at a discount price facing a very beatable team or do you avoid it because a large portion of a big tourney is going to jump on him as the obvious value play and render his score less meaningful? There are a lot of big names today so I’m not sure he’ll be an obvious pick.

CC Sabathia, NYY (at OAK) – I’m very heartened by CC’s last two starts during which he went 16.3 strong innings against Boston and Cleveland including going the distance against the Indians, allowing four runs on seven hits with nine strikeouts. He’s had a few more rough outings than we normally expect from him as an ace, but his two trips to Tampa Bay have been the only real implosions. He went seven in both, but allowed five and seven runs. He sharp against the A’s back on May 3rd at home holding them to just two runs in six innings.

The A’s are baseball’s fifth-best team against southpaws, though it’s driven by the third-highest OBP (.348) thanks in large part to a 12% BB rate. Sabathia is in the midst of dropping his walk rate for the third straight season which is particularly impressive when you consider that it was already strong back in 2010 when he started at a 7.6% rate. This isn’t an easy matchup, but it’s not one to inherently run away from, either.

BEST OF THE REST:

Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. NYY) – Only DailyJoust has Colon at price that is anywhere near his incredible 2013 performance. At most sites he’s an incredible value play especially since he gets a Yankees team that has been horrid against righties since May 1st. After a big April against them, they have fallen all the way down to the second-worst OPS in the league at 639. The only real flaw in Colon’s game is a lack of strikeouts, but the saved pitches have allowed him to go six or more innings in 10 of 12 outings and seven-plus in six of those 10. Only once has he topped 100 pitches (106 in a ShO against the White Sox). In 34 innings at home, Colon has yielded one walk. This is your value play of the day.

Michael Wacha, STL (at NYM) – So far in a pair of outings Wacha has been excellent and terrible. Of course he also faced the Royals and D’Backs so it’s no real surprise that he could dominate the slugs and then get hit around by a strong Arizona team. He is setup for a great bounce back with a trip to Citi Field. In fact, your biggest enemy in choosing Wacha is the weather. If the game goes off, I think the righty has something closer to his debut outing when he allowed just one run on two hits against the Royals. The two hits part isn’t likely, but even at six or seven hits allowed that kind of outing would score very nicely.

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. ARI) – Greinke’s stuff is looking more and more crisp with each passing start even if it’s not showing up in the stats. He finally had a huge outing last time out taming the Braves and holding them to just seven base runners in seven shutout innings with seven punch outs. As I mentioned with Wacha, this D’Backs team is legitimate so Greinke will be challenged, but we are still dealing with a top talent here. This will be his sixth start since returning from the collarbone injury, it’s time to push expectations back up to something on par with those that we’ve had of him in the past couple of seasons. He should soon earn back his “Cream of the Crop” rating.

Tony Cingrani, CIN (at CHC) – Cingrani returns from Triple-A after three nice outings during which he allowed a 2.08 ERA and fanned 23 batters in 17.3 innings. I like that he didn’t go back down, sulk, and get torn apart by inferior competition. Now this is his third outing against the Cubs and they got to him a little bit the second time around as he allowed four earned in six innings. Actually, it’s better stated to say that Alfonso Soriano got to him. Sori popped two home runs to account for two of the three hits Cingrani allowed (an Anthony Rizzo 2B was the other) and all four runs. If he can avoid trouble from Soriano, I expect an outing closer to his seven innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts from April 23rd. Chicago’s 437 OPS against lefty curveballs (league avg 630) is baseball’s fourth-worst and they’ve to register a hit against Cingrani’s.

USE CAUTION:

Derek Holland, TEX (v. CLE) – I’m a huge Holland, but this Indians ballclub has proven themselves repeatedly this year. They club lefties to the tune of a 771 OPS – third-highest in baseball and their 28 home runs against lefties are a league high. Holland has been excellent at home handling all comers except the Tigers who go to him for four in 4.7 innings. Otherwise he’s thwarted the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Royals including eight shutout innings of the Sox. It’s not that he can’t thwart the Indians; it’s just too big of a risk on a day that offers several other options.

Andrew Cashner, SD (v. ATL) – Cashner is still clearly learning on the job as a starter as he will flash brilliance for a couple of innings before running into trouble only to adjust again and end up with a decent outing. Of course that happens to experienced pitchers, too, so it’s not a commentary against Cashner. I’m not sure he’s worth a roll of the dice even after a really impressive outing in Coors Field as the Braves are mashing the ball of late. In 10 June games they have a .500 SLG against righties with an MLB-best 15 home runs. Cashner snapped a four game streak of allowing at least one home run with his trip to Coors oddly enough, but I’m not sure he’ll be so fortunate against Atlanta tonight. Proceed with extreme caution.

Matt Garza, CHC (v. CIN) – I love the 23% K rate and the 8.6% BB rate is passable, but this isn’t a great spot as the Reds have quietly displayed a top 10 offense against righties. All of their best hitters are lefties so it’s not particularly surprising, but their offense has been a bit under the radar even as Joey Votto continues to dominate. It will be strength vs. strength as Garza’s breaking pitches are yielding a 385 OPS and the Reds have a 682 OPS against the pitches (curve/slider) – good for seventh in MLB.

Corey Kluber, CLE (at TEX) – He’s impressed this year, but this is not the spot for him. I’d pay the extra for Holland before I’d mess with Kluber against the Rangers in Arlington.

Tim Hudson, ATL (at SD) – Despite the moved in fences, Petco Park is still very much a pitcher’s park and the Padres have the misfortune of catching Huddy on the heels of two incredible starts after some struggles throughout May. He’s allowed just one earned in 14.3 June innings. Only DailyJoust is running Hudson out at a big price making him an intriguing value play

Tim Lincecum, SF (at PIT) – Hey, we found a spot where Lincecum is useful! The Pirates have a 678 OPS against righties and it drops to 668 at home. It’s been even worse in the last month at a meager 623 with a 24% K rate. Lincecum was excellent in his last outing against the Blue Jays and this gives him a chance for his first back-to-back pair of big outings since he faced the Padres in consecutive starts back in late-April.

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (v. STL) – He was robbed of a Miami start over the weekend and pushed into the St. Louis series instead, but he does have a baseline quality start against the Cards already this year. In his last three outings he has a 2.84 ERA with a 19/3 K/BB ratio in 19 innings. Only the Braves posed a real challenge in the trio (NYY, WAS were the other two), but I don’t think we need to diminish his efforts because of competition since after all it’s Jeremy-freaking-Hefner.

Jose Quintana, CWS (v. TOR) – Q has allowed exactly four runs in three of his last five thanks in large part to five home runs allowed (1.4 HR/9), but this is a nice spot for him as the Blue Jays have a deficiency against lefties. In fact, Quintana tossed 6.7 shutout innings against them back in April for his first win of the season. He fanned seven and allowed just seven base runners. Even in just the last month the Jays have just the 20th-best OPS against lefties at 678. Quintana is like a rich man’s Dylan Axelrod from the left side which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, but he’s super-cheap and there is some real upside.

Bud Norris, HOU (at SEA) – Since getting pummeled by the Tigers back on May 13, Norris has run off a four-start stretch with a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings. The run includes outings against the Angels (2), Rockies (3), and Orioles (5) – all top five offenses against righties the last month. Now he gets the 15th-ranked offense in the Mariners.

Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. SF) – He’s here! The talented super-prospect arrives for his MLB debut, though he won’t be available at every outlet tonight. His price is minuscule so he’s sure to draw some attention, but there is no guarantee of instant success. He’s been up and down at Triple-A and we don’t yet know if that’s because he was bored with the minors or if there was something amiss within his arsenal. The 2.91 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 68 Triple-A innings certainly didn’t fit with a 1.7 K/BB. There is tremendous risk even after accounting for the benefits of a being able to build a super-charged lineup. How long will he be allowed to go? Will the Pirates score for him? I’d recommend you just enjoy his outing as a fan instead of tying your bankroll to it.

Miguel Gonzalez, BAL (v. LAA) – I would like Gonzalez much more if he wasn’t facing a tough Angels offense. He’s handled them once this year, but it was in the much more pitcher-friendly confines of Angels Stadium. That May 3rd start has spurred a run during which he has a 3.52 ERA in 30.7 innings, but more importantly a 30/7 K/BB ratio. Home runs are an issue with him which makes a rematch against this team in Camden particularly scary. They got him for two homers in that first outing, his only road HRs. He allows 2.2 HR/9 and a 5.11 ERA at home. Pass.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Jacob Turner, MIA (v. MIL) – He’s limited runs in his first two outings, but a 7/5 K/BB ratio in 13 innings is awful. Make him prove more.

Aaron Harang, SEA (v. HOU) – He has: a shutout against San Diego, eight earned in Texas, a gem against Baltimore, seven earned in LA, gems in Pittsburgh and Minnesota, and most recently six earned at home against the Yankees. Do you really want to roll these dice? Good luck with all of that.

Jason Vargas, LAA (at BAL) – Don’t mess with him on the road, especially against a strong Baltimore offense.

• Dan Haren, WAS
• Jhoulys Chacin, COL
• Ian Kennedy, ARI
• Roberto Hernandez, TB
• Wily Peralta, MIL
• Wade Davis, KC
• Chien-Ming Wang, TOR
• P.J. Walters, MIN

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PARK FACTORS: June 11th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 11th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.