Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 11th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross | SDP | PHI | 81 | 3.22 | 3.37 | 1.30 | 58.3% | 22.5% | 9.4% | 0.78 | 2.63 |
| Hamels | PHI | SDP | 59.1 | 3.49 | 3.50 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 8.4% | 0.61 | 1.41 |
| Hammel | CHC | PIT | 78.1 | 2.53 | 3.30 | 0.88 | 45.5% | 23.3% | 5.3% | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| Cumpton | PIT | CHC | 27.2 | 6.51 | 4.30 | 1.58 | 50.0% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 0.33 | 1.80 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | BAL | 12.2 | 2.84 | 2.50 | 1.23 | 100.0% | 26.0% | 4.0% | 1.42 | 2.11 |
| Chen | BAL | BOS | 69.2 | 4.13 | 3.72 | 1.33 | 27.3% | 17.0% | 3.7% | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| Peralta | MIL | NYM | 74.1 | 3.03 | 3.68 | 1.27 | 63.6% | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.21 | 1.89 |
| Degrom | NYM | MIL | 31 | 3.19 | 4.25 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.45 | 0.82 |
| Wacha | STL | TBR | 79.1 | 2.61 | 3.29 | 1.09 | 58.3% | 23.5% | 6.2% | 0.45 | 1.31 |
| Bedard | TBR | STL | 52.1 | 3.61 | 4.59 | 1.40 | 22.2% | 18.0% | 9.9% | 0.52 | 0.70 |
| Ryu | LAD | CIN | 64.1 | 3.08 | 3.57 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 0.42 | 1.42 |
| Cueto | CIN | LAD | 96 | 1.97 | 2.86 | 0.79 | 91.7% | 26.4% | 6.0% | 0.75 | 1.61 |
| Turner | MIA | TEX | 44 | 5.93 | 4.17 | 1.64 | 28.6% | 13.2% | 6.6% | 1.23 | 2.13 |
| Darvish | TEX | MIA | 76.1 | 2.36 | 2.98 | 1.14 | 70.0% | 29.0% | 7.6% | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| Verlander | DET | CWS | 86 | 4.19 | 4.66 | 1.47 | 41.7% | 16.1% | 9.3% | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| Danks | CWS | DET | 75 | 4.32 | 4.56 | 1.33 | 36.4% | 16.7% | 9.3% | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| McCarthy | ARI | HOU | 79 | 5.13 | 2.89 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 21.4% | 4.2% | 1.37 | 2.43 |
| Keuchel | HOU | ARI | 82.2 | 2.50 | 2.68 | 1.03 | 63.6% | 21.7% | 5.3% | 0.44 | 3.24 |
| Teheran | ATL | COL | 90.2 | 1.89 | 3.72 | 0.93 | 83.3% | 20.7% | 6.0% | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| Matzek | COL | ATL | |||||||||
| Milone | OAK | LAA | 66 | 3.68 | 4.55 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 1.09 | 0.87 |
| Weaver | LAA | OAK | 84.1 | 3.31 | 4.17 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 19.2% | 7.9% | 1.17 | 0.77 |
| Tanaka | NYY | SEA | 84.2 | 2.02 | 2.54 | 0.96 | 72.7% | 27.8% | 3.9% | 0.85 | 1.52 |
| Young | SEA | NYY | 68.1 | 3.42 | 5.98 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 1.32 | 0.45 |
| Roark | WAS | SFG | 77.1 | 2.91 | 3.65 | 1.05 | 54.5% | 19.7% | 5.8% | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| Cain | SFG | WAS | 53.2 | 3.52 | 4.03 | 1.15 | 25.0% | 19.3% | 8.3% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Cole Hamels PHI (v. SD) – Hamels continues to chisel away at his ERA, dropping it below 4.00 for the first time since his season opener back on April 23rd. He’s gone seven-plus in each of the last six allowing just 10 ER in 42.7 IP (2.11 ERA) with 45 strikeouts and a 3.2 K:BB ratio. The Padres are in some big trouble.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at SEA) – Tanaka still hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a single outing including a very impressive 6 IP/1 ER effort against the A’s his last time out when it was clear early on that he didn’t have his best stuff. His 4 Ks in that game were the lowest of the season by far, but he still has 92 in his 84.7 IP with an AL-best 2.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. MIA) – The Marlins needed three Texas errors to drop eight in last night’s game, but they will need quite a few more to get that many off of Darvish. Darvish dominates both home and away with a 2.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 4.0 K:BB ratio in 42 home IP.
Johnny Cueto CIN (v. LAD) – A star-studded Wednesday offers plenty of opportunities to roster a stud and while Cueto has the third-best ERA in all of baseball, he’s just fourth on today’s list because of a tougher matchup than the others. He’s allowed 11 of his 21 ER in his last four starts, but that still includes a 6.3 IP/1 ER (4 R in all) effort in LA against these Dodgers and a dismantling of the D’Backs with a 7.3 IP/0 ER gem. He’s been unquestionably great, but at his price, it’s hard to still use him in daily as there is some regression coming.
Jason Hammel CHC (at PIT) – Hammel’s sinker-slider combo has yielded some incredible results to date, looking even better than his 2012 breakout so far. Pitching in the NL Central as opposed to the AL East certainly helps, but the fact that he’s healthy is really driving him after an ugly 2013. The Pirates have struggled against righty sliders with .226 wOBA slotting them 26th in the league (they are 25th dating back 2013) and they haven’t touched Hammel’s so far this year, going for 0-for-10 in two starts so far.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at CIN) – The return of Joey Votto didn’t really change the fortunes of the Reds offense as they were shut down by Josh Beckett in a 6-1 loss. Now, one game isn’t enough to say he won’t help them get better, but they weren’t particularly good before he got hurt so it’s unlikely to vastly change their outlook. The Reds are still a team to pick on, especially with lefties as they have the league’s worst wOBA checking in at .272 for the season.
Michael Wacha STL (at TB) – Wacha hasn’t really gotten much run for his amazing 2014 season so far, especially since his arsenal has really evolved as he now has four pitches he can go to after essentially being a fastball-changeup guy last year. The Rays are a complete mess right now with the AL’s second-worst wOBA against righties over the last month of play at .277 (27th in the league) and now they are without Wil Myers – though he wasn’t exactly ripping it up. They may have a surge coming, but for now they are a team to target, especially with stud arms like Wacha.
Tanner Roark WAS (at SF) – Roark is coming off his best start ever, albeit against the Padres in Petco, but he’s been rolling of late. In fact, since his 7 ER massacre in Philly, he’s ripped off a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 40.7 IP over six starts allowing 3 or fewer ER in each outing. The strikeouts have been a bit modest in that run with just 30 (11 of which came against the Padres), but I can live with a lowered strikeout rate if he’s going deep into game and maintaining a near-50% groundball rate.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (v. ARI) – Keuchel shows with each passing start that he is in fact legit. He’s yet to allow more than 4 ER in a single outing and he hasn’t yielded more than 3 ER in any of his last six with a 1.36 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 46.3 IP with a 37/6 K:BB ratio. The D’Backs have actually been tough on lefties, but Keuchel has been tough on everyone and I think it’s safe to tab him as matchup-proof at this point.
SOLID BUYS:
Julio Teheran ATL (at COL) – Teheran is too good to completely ignore, even in Coors, but I’d be careful and given the star-studded slate, I think you can find someone else you’re more comfortable with – especially since he’ll still cost you an arm and a leg.
Jered Weaver LAA (v. OAK) – Weaver has decimated the A’s throughout his career including a 0.44 ERA in 44.3 IP over the last two seasons (1 ER each season), but they did get to him earlier this month for a 6 IP/5 ER dud – his worst start of the season. He does his best work at home (2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) so I wouldn’t bet against a rebound, but I’m not seeking Weaver out. He would be someone I look at with my last pick or switch to for budget concerns.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Erik Bedard TB (v. STL) – Bedard has turned into a nice little value play with the Rays and if you pick the right spots, he can be quite helpful. His getting killed in Toronto and roughed up in Boston isn’t particularly problematic because we were never considering him in either, but he ripped the Mariners for six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and today he gets a Cardinals team that he flailed against lefties dating back to 2013. They are 26th in wOBA against them this year and 29th since the start of 2013. Going deep into games isn’t part of Bedard’s profile right now, but when he’s on, he’s good for five or six very strong innings which is more than enough to earn his price at just about any outlet.
Brandon McCarthy ARI (at HOU) – I can’t figure out McCarthy, but I’m still standing by him as a reasonable value play because he’s missing a lot more bats than ever before and his skills profile says he deserves much better than the 5.13 ERA he currently has through 13 starts. He wasn’t too bad his last time out against Atlanta and while the Astros are hitting better of late, they aren’t exactly a stayaway offense just yet.
Wily Peralta MIL (at NYM) – Peralta was a bit over his head earlier this year with a sub-3.00 ERA on mid-3.00s skills, but he’s started to see his results catch up to those stats of late with his ERA jumping north of 3.00 for the first time since his April 5th season opener. While he is just below average in strikeout rate, he’s got an elite groundball rate and this Mets team doesn’t scare anyone.
Brandon Cumpton PIT (v. CHC) – Cumpton’s numbers are massively inflated by a 10 ER demolition at the hands of the Dodgers and with only five starts on his ledger, that outing will be felt for a while. Thus he’s toting a 6.51 ERA that is over two runs higher than his SIERA (4.25). He has a 3.75 ERA in his other four starts. If you’re trying to lock in Tanaka and a few huge bats, you might consider Cumpton as your second starter as he really can’t get much worse and should really start to chip away at that massive ERA.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- John Danks CWS (v. DET)
- Chris Young SEA (v. NYY)
- Wei-Yin Chen BAL (v. BOS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross | 0.295 | 3.48 | 0.289 | 2.94 | 0.231 | 0.643 | 1.300 | 3.22 | 0.132 | 98.62 | 61.4% |
| Hamels | 0.312 | 4.96 | 0.306 | 3.24 | 0.212 | 0.622 | 1.260 | 3.49 | 0.153 | 105.89 | 65.0% |
| Hammel | 0.363 | 5.35 | 0.265 | 2.90 | 0.251 | 0.703 | 0.880 | 2.53 | 0.18 | 101.25 | 63.7% |
| Cumpton | 0.325 | 4.76 | 0.282 | 3.89 | 0.219 | 0.633 | 1.550 | 6.51 | 0.071 | 86.40 | 66.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.265 | 0.90 | 0.414 | 6.43 | 0.270 | 0.734 | 1.180 | 2.84 | 0.22 | 100.50 | 66.2% |
| Chen | 0.330 | 3.94 | 0.335 | 4.17 | 0.247 | 0.707 | 1.320 | 4.13 | 0.132 | 97.08 | 65.1% |
| Peralta | 0.333 | 3.91 | 0.308 | 4.12 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.260 | 3.03 | 0.119 | 99.17 | 64.0% |
| Degrom | 0.314 | 3.60 | 0.294 | 2.93 | 0.260 | 0.719 | 1.160 | 3.19 | 0.105 | 100.00 | 59.4% |
| Wacha | 0.242 | 2.28 | 0.293 | 3.11 | 0.248 | 0.695 | 1.080 | 2.61 | 0.173 | 94.08 | 67.8% |
| Bedard | 0.349 | 4.50 | 0.325 | 4.29 | 0.226 | 0.628 | 1.390 | 3.61 | 0.082 | 87.64 | 61.9% |
| Ryu | 0.324 | 3.41 | 0.285 | 2.91 | 0.221 | 0.630 | 1.260 | 3.08 | 0.143 | 94.82 | 65.6% |
| Cueto | 0.236 | 2.00 | 0.248 | 2.57 | 0.269 | 0.763 | 0.790 | 1.97 | 0.204 | 107.08 | 64.4% |
| Turner | 0.344 | 4.99 | 0.350 | 3.96 | 0.261 | 0.703 | 1.640 | 5.93 | 0.066 | 86.38 | 64.0% |
| Darvish | 0.293 | 2.98 | 0.247 | 2.35 | 0.259 | 0.736 | 1.140 | 2.36 | 0.213 | 107.00 | 63.0% |
| Verlander | 0.297 | 3.17 | 0.337 | 4.49 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 1.470 | 4.19 | 0.069 | 111.92 | 62.3% |
| Danks | 0.341 | 4.42 | 0.339 | 4.72 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 1.330 | 4.32 | 0.074 | 107.00 | 61.4% |
| McCarthy | 0.338 | 4.53 | 0.341 | 5.01 | 0.224 | 0.675 | 1.340 | 5.13 | 0.172 | 90.92 | 67.6% |
| Keuchel | 0.310 | 4.03 | 0.334 | 4.33 | 0.269 | 0.754 | 1.030 | 2.50 | 0.164 | 101.75 | 63.8% |
| Teheran | 0.318 | 3.66 | 0.266 | 2.06 | 0.277 | 0.787 | 0.930 | 1.89 | 0.148 | 98.46 | 65.9% |
| Matzek | 0.282 | 0.843 | |||||||||
| Milone | 0.342 | 5.04 | 0.314 | 3.78 | 0.262 | 0.758 | 1.260 | 3.68 | 0.082 | 92.91 | 63.6% |
| Weaver | 0.296 | 3.41 | 0.294 | 3.16 | 0.255 | 0.762 | 1.150 | 3.31 | 0.114 | 97.85 | 60.9% |
| Tanaka | 0.259 | 2.57 | 0.267 | 1.49 | 0.233 | 0.680 | 0.960 | 2.02 | 0.239 | 105.75 | 67.7% |
| Young | 0.297 | 2.50 | 0.321 | 4.60 | 0.249 | 0.690 | 1.210 | 3.42 | 0.011 | 90.92 | 61.2% |
| Roark | 0.285 | 3.51 | 0.226 | 1.41 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 1.050 | 2.91 | 0.139 | 95.83 | 64.8% |
| Cain | 0.286 | 3.86 | 0.317 | 3.99 | 0.241 | 0.688 | 1.140 | 3.52 | 0.11 | 92.78 | 62.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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