Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 17th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shoemaker | LAA | CLE | 34.1 | 4.19 | 3.09 | 1.23 | 20.0% | 24.0% | 5.5% | 1.57 | 1.22 |
| Tomlin | CLE | LAA | 46 | 3.33 | 3.48 | 1.07 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 3.7% | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| Stroman | TOR | NYY | 24.1 | 5.18 | 3.06 | 1.54 | 66.7% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 0.74 | 1.81 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TOR | 93.2 | 2.02 | 2.44 | 0.94 | 76.9% | 28.4% | 3.9% | 0.86 | 1.64 |
| Cueto | CIN | PIT | 102 | 1.85 | 2.64 | 0.77 | 85.7% | 28.2% | 5.7% | 0.71 | 1.64 |
| Cumpton | PIT | CIN | 32.2 | 6.06 | 4.22 | 1.55 | 33.3% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 0.28 | 1.76 |
| Keuchel | HOU | WAS | 90.2 | 2.38 | 2.65 | 1.00 | 69.2% | 21.4% | 5.1% | 0.50 | 3.35 |
| Roark | WAS | HOU | 83.1 | 2.92 | 3.66 | 1.06 | 61.5% | 19.4% | 5.4% | 0.76 | 1.27 |
| Ventura | KCR | DET | 70.1 | 3.20 | 3.44 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 7.1% | 0.77 | 1.80 |
| Scherzer | DET | KCR | 94.1 | 3.05 | 3.09 | 1.19 | 53.8% | 27.5% | 7.3% | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| Kendrick | PHI | ATL | 81.1 | 4.09 | 4.58 | 1.37 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 1.11 | 1.27 |
| Santana | ATL | PHI | 77 | 4.09 | 3.55 | 1.27 | 45.5% | 21.3% | 7.3% | 0.82 | 1.67 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TBR | 58.1 | 4.17 | 4.06 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 19.8% | 8.3% | 1.23 | 0.89 |
| Bedard | TBR | BAL | 56.1 | 3.83 | 4.47 | 1.46 | 27.3% | 18.1% | 9.5% | 0.48 | 0.78 |
| Samardzija | CHC | MIA | 91 | 2.77 | 3.38 | 1.18 | 69.2% | 22.0% | 7.0% | 0.49 | 1.79 |
| Desclafani | MIA | CHC | 11.1 | 5.56 | 3.72 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 18.4% | 4.1% | 1.59 | 1.08 |
| Hughes | MIN | BOS | 82.1 | 3.17 | 3.35 | 1.11 | 53.8% | 21.6% | 2.4% | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| Lester | BOS | MIN | 92 | 3.33 | 3.09 | 1.27 | 46.2% | 25.9% | 6.3% | 0.78 | 1.09 |
| Cain | SFG | CWS | 58.2 | 3.84 | 4.22 | 1.19 | 30.0% | 19.1% | 9.5% | 1.38 | 1.20 |
| Danks | CWS | SFG | 82 | 4.17 | 4.59 | 1.32 | 46.2% | 16.4% | 9.1% | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Niese | NYM | STL | 85 | 2.54 | 3.86 | 1.13 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 0.64 | 1.49 | |
| Wacha | STL | NYM | 84.1 | 2.88 | 3.54 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 22.0% | 6.9% | 0.43 | 1.31 |
| Lohse | MIL | ARI | 96 | 3.00 | 3.70 | 1.01 | 53.8% | 18.0% | 3.7% | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| Miley | ARI | MIL | 93.2 | 4.71 | 3.56 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.54 | 1.42 |
| Darvish | TEX | OAK | 85.1 | 2.11 | 2.96 | 1.13 | 66.7% | 29.2% | 7.8% | 0.53 | 0.78 |
| Milone | OAK | TEX | 72.2 | 3.47 | 4.52 | 1.26 | 41.7% | 14.9% | 6.8% | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Chacin | COL | LAD | 45.2 | 4.53 | 4.86 | 1.37 | 14.3% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 0.79 | 1.34 |
| Greinke | LAD | COL | 85 | 2.65 | 2.78 | 1.15 | 46.2% | 26.6% | 5.2% | 1.06 | 1.52 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Max Scherzer DET (v. KC) – Scherzer emerged from four straight outings with 4+ ER by notching his first career complete game – a shutout of the White Sox with eight strikeouts en route to his eighth win of the season. The Royals are surging of late and yet their offense still doesn’t look like any sort of force to reckoned with, especially against an ace.
Michael Wacha STL (v. NYM) – Wacha went from being primarily a two-pitch pitcher last year to a four-pitch pitcher so far this year with both breaking balls developing nicely to the point where he trusts regularly both. He didn’t use either breaking ball more than five percent of the time last year and yet both are up over nine percent this year with the curveball at 11.2% and the slider at 9.3%. The Mets haven’t fared well offensively this year and the present a great opportunity for Wacha to display his new weapons as they’ve posted a meager .214 wOBA against righty curves and sliders combined – 29th in baseball.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (v. TOR) / Yu Darvish TEX (at OAK) – There’s only so much to say about the super-studs after a while. Tanaka and Darvish are always going to cost an arm and a leg, but they will also deliver almost every time out. In fact, Tanaka HAS delivered every time out with no more than 3 ER in a single outing this year. Darvish has one real dud this year and it came against Oakland back on April 28th. Both guys have difficult matchups, which along with their sizeable price tags, bumps them down a bit during a full night of action.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at WAS) – Keuchel has been a revelation this year. A couple of 4 ER outings this year account for his worst while 11 of his 13 outings have resulted in quality starts and nine of those have been gems (6+ IP/0-2 ER). He’s been matchup-proof, too, handling all comers including a brilliant three start stretch at DET, v. TEX, and LAA during which he posted a 1.42 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 22/1 K:BB ratio in 25.3 IP. He’s no longer a steal price-wise, but he’s proven himself worthy of the loftier prices he draws.
Phil Hughes MIN (at BOS) – Hughes has a few hiccups on his ledger this year, but three of the four were his first three starts of the season. Since then he has posted a 2.27 ERA in 67.3 IP with a 55/3 K:BB ratio with outings in Detroit, in Toronto, in Yankee Stadium, and at home against Detroit, Boston, and Texas. Meanwhile, the Boston offense hasn’t much more than league average this year.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at PIT) – Cueto has lived on his fastball this year. His .356 OPS on fastballs is far and away baseball’s best mark with Andrew Cashner checking in behind him at .536. The heater was a driving force behind Cueto’s back-to-back complete games against the Pirates back on April 16th and 22nd during which he allowed just one run with a 16/3 K:BB ratio. The Pirates are surging of late, though, so he’ll have to cut into their MLB-best .424 wOBA against fastballs this month. Obviously with a team figure this high, it’s not just Andrew McCutchen, though he is absolutely doing a large amount of the damage (1.759 OPS in 27 PA v. fastballs in June). I can still very easily see Cueto having a great outing, but at his price, you might better off elsewhere.
Jon Lester BOS (v. MIN) – Every time it seems like Lester is ready to have that huge breakout season, he pushes his ERA back with a dud of an outing with six or seven earned runs in a few innings. He had a 2.67 ERA through his first nine starts before a 6.3 IP/7 ER bomb against Toronto. He trimmed it back down with a couple strong outings against before a 4.3 IP/5 ER bomb against Detroit. Now Toronto and Detroit aren’t teams any pitcher should be ashamed to lose against, but Lester has yet to eliminate those dud outings from his repertoire which make it tough to see that transcendent sub-3.00 ERA season on the horizon. Plus, as weird as it’s been to say for most of the year, the Twins offense is quite solid. They’ve been about league average against lefties, but they have a .350 wOBA against them so far this month – good for fourth in the league.
Jeff Samardzija CHC (at MIA) – Samardzija needed 11 starts to log his first win through no fault of his own as he had a 1.68 ERA. The Brewers pasted him for 8 ER in 3 IP, but that’s the only bad start on his ledger this year. He’s hoping to play his way out of Chicago, but while he’s still there, I think his price is a little depressed because of his infrequently he wins despite excellent numbers everywhere else. By the way, if you were worried about his strikeout rate after April when it was 18.5%, you should be heartened by his 24.9% mark over his last eight starts, posting fewer than seven just twice.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at ARI) – Lohse bounced back tremendously from his first big dud of the season (5 IP/8 ER in PIT) with eight innings of one-run (unearned) ball in Citi Field against the Mets. He’s allowed 16 ER in his last six starts, but obviously half came in that one outing. He’s been great this year, but I think people are still afraid to trust him.
Tanner Roark WAS (v. HOU) – While it must be noted that the Astros aren’t the walkover opponent they were to start the season, it’s also worth noting that Roark has handled opponents of all kinds with big efforts against the Angels, A’s, and Rangers, not to mention a solid 6.3 IP/3 ER effort against Miami in Miami back in April when they were untouchable at home. Roark is still priced to buy at a lot of outlets despite his surge, too.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Marcus Stroman TOR (at NYY) – Stroman’s relief work is keeping his price depressed as he has a 5.18 composite ERA, but he’s logged three straight quality starts since joining the rotation with a 2.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 17/2 K:BB ratio in 18 IP. He’s a great complement to one of the ace arms, even if you want to forgo the chance at two wins and just use him and Tanaka together.
Tommy Milone OAK (v. TEX) – Milone has been a home/road guy throughout his career and 2014 is no different. He has a 1.93 ERA in 32.7 IP at home and a 4.73 ERA in 40 IP on the road.
Josh Tomlin CLE (v. LAA) – This is a tough matchup, especially with Tomlin’s penchant for homers, but a career-best strikeout rate with a tiny walk rate has yielded an impressive 5.4 K:BB ratio in 46 IP. He’s only gone six or more in one of his last four starts, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a solid 3.70 ERA with a 24/4 K:BB ratio in 24.3 IP.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method. These guys are listed from most stackable to least.
- Wade Miley ARI (v. MIL)
- Jhoulys Chacin COL (at LAD)
- Kyle Kendrick PHI (at ATL)
- Matt Shoemaker LAA (at CLE)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shoemaker | 0.378 | 4.64 | 0.198 | 2.50 | 0.267 | 0.760 | 1.220 | 4.19 | 0.185 | 55.60 | 61.5% |
| Tomlin | 0.322 | 3.96 | 0.260 | 2.35 | 0.253 | 0.725 | 1.070 | 3.33 | 0.166 | 93.88 | 67.5% |
| Stroman | 0.424 | 7.94 | 0.301 | 2.77 | 0.249 | 0.683 | 1.520 | 5.18 | 0.162 | 51.50 | 65.5% |
| Tanaka | 0.257 | 2.57 | 0.266 | 1.42 | 0.263 | 0.770 | 0.940 | 2.02 | 0.245 | 106.08 | 67.7% |
| Cueto | 0.231 | 1.91 | 0.245 | 2.49 | 0.254 | 0.711 | 0.770 | 1.85 | 0.225 | 107.43 | 64.6% |
| Cumpton | 0.338 | 5.04 | 0.270 | 3.62 | 0.243 | 0.677 | 1.530 | 6.06 | 0.08 | 87.17 | 66.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.303 | 3.82 | 0.332 | 4.27 | 0.286 | 0.763 | 0.990 | 2.38 | 0.162 | 101.69 | 64.1% |
| Roark | 0.283 | 3.36 | 0.231 | 1.59 | 0.227 | 0.678 | 1.060 | 2.92 | 0.14 | 95.77 | 64.7% |
| Ventura | 0.300 | 3.20 | 0.298 | 3.34 | 0.272 | 0.751 | 1.240 | 3.20 | 0.142 | 95.83 | 64.9% |
| Scherzer | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.240 | 2.63 | 0.257 | 0.666 | 1.190 | 3.05 | 0.202 | 110.21 | 65.3% |
| Kendrick | 0.331 | 4.40 | 0.332 | 4.65 | 0.234 | 0.650 | 1.360 | 4.09 | 0.065 | 100.92 | 62.6% |
| Santana | 0.320 | 3.40 | 0.284 | 3.65 | 0.231 | 0.642 | 1.270 | 4.09 | 0.14 | 94.67 | 63.0% |
| Gonzalez | 0.307 | 3.45 | 0.335 | 4.30 | 0.245 | 0.686 | 1.370 | 4.17 | 0.115 | 89.64 | 62.6% |
| Bedard | 0.356 | 4.83 | 0.325 | 4.25 | 0.263 | 0.722 | 1.460 | 3.83 | 0.087 | 87.00 | 62.1% |
| Samardzija | 0.339 | 4.21 | 0.297 | 3.69 | 0.256 | 0.723 | 1.180 | 2.77 | 0.15 | 99.64 | 65.8% |
| Desclafani | 0.347 | 5.40 | 0.360 | 5.79 | 0.222 | 0.635 | 1.320 | 5.56 | 0.143 | 91.00 | 67.6% |
| Hughes | 0.329 | 4.09 | 0.347 | 4.95 | 0.247 | 0.696 | 1.110 | 3.17 | 0.192 | 96.77 | 72.4% |
| Lester | 0.302 | 3.52 | 0.316 | 3.68 | 0.240 | 0.672 | 1.270 | 3.33 | 0.196 | 108.64 | 64.2% |
| Cain | 0.286 | 3.87 | 0.319 | 4.11 | 0.259 | 0.728 | 1.180 | 3.84 | 0.095 | 93.70 | 61.9% |
| Danks | 0.340 | 4.34 | 0.338 | 4.66 | 0.245 | 0.717 | 1.320 | 4.17 | 0.074 | 105.92 | 61.7% |
| Niese | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.324 | 3.36 | 0.234 | 0.647 | 1.130 | 2.54 | 0.116 | 97.31 | 63.8% |
| Wacha | 0.245 | 2.57 | 0.291 | 3.13 | 0.226 | 0.646 | 1.110 | 2.88 | 0.15 | 93.29 | 66.9% |
| Lohse | 0.311 | 3.66 | 0.284 | 2.91 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.010 | 3.00 | 0.144 | 99.57 | 67.0% |
| Miley | 0.307 | 4.47 | 0.334 | 3.84 | 0.241 | 0.708 | 1.290 | 4.71 | 0.145 | 99.07 | 64.4% |
| Darvish | 0.294 | 2.95 | 0.243 | 2.22 | 0.249 | 0.742 | 1.130 | 2.11 | 0.214 | 107.42 | 63.2% |
| Milone | 0.344 | 4.96 | 0.314 | 3.70 | 0.285 | 0.778 | 1.250 | 3.47 | 0.081 | 93.08 | 63.7% |
| Chacin | 0.321 | 4.23 | 0.294 | 3.22 | 0.269 | 0.758 | 1.360 | 4.53 | 0.042 | 92.00 | 61.8% |
| Greinke | 0.314 | 2.84 | 0.272 | 2.51 | 0.279 | 0.784 | 1.150 | 2.65 | 0.214 | 97.86 | 65.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window