Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 18th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-18 22:20:15

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 18th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Adam Wainwright, STL (v. CHC) – The Cubs are probably hitting better than you think with the 18th-best OPS (698) in the league against righties, but Wainwright has been indestructible this year as he is well on his way to a career year. I’m running out of superlatives for him.

Yu Darvish, TEX (v. OAK) – Darvish has gone at least seven innings in seven of his last eight netting 69 strikeouts in the 56.7 innings of work. He had a bit of a home run issue in May, allowing eight in his 35.7 innings for the month, but he hasn’t allowed one in his three June starts (1.29 ERA in 21 IP). After a hot April, Oakland sputtered through May, but they’ve rebounded in June posting the seventh-best OPS against righties at 772. Darvish is good enough to start against even the toughest offenses, though.

Cliff Lee, PHI (v. WAS) – Lee has been brilliant this year yet it has kind of gone unnoticed. I guess his excellence has gotten boring. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight outings and he has at least six strikeouts in seven of those eight (he had five in a complete game during the other). The Nats are one point better than the Marlins to just avoid last place in OPS against southpaws at 613. And they actually have the lowest SLG at .330 (Miami is at .335).

Justin Verlander, DET (v. BAL) – I’d love to take a poll of baseball fans on how they think Verlander is doing this year without affording them the chance to look at any stats. I think the perception is MARKEDLY worse than he has actually been. First off, he carried a 1.93 ERA through his first eight starts and then he had a little three start where he posted an 11.37 ERA while facing the Indians twice and getting destroyed by the Rangers (8 ER in 2.7 IP). He’s gone seven strong in each of his last four posting a 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 28% K rate, and 4.6 K/BB. He’s still an unmitigated superstar. Baltimore is tough, but Max Scherzer showed how a stud arm can lock up a tough offense.

Matt Cain, SF (at SD) – Hey, I know you. You kind of look like a star pitcher named Matt Cain that I used to know. You’ve kinda-sorta looked like him recently. I like the one run allowed in your last two, but the 7/5 K/BB ratio is lame. Honestly, we extend back to the beginning of May he’s been pretty solid in his last eight. After an abysmal 6.49 ERA in April, he’s had a 3.54 ERA since with a 1.05 WHIP in 53.3 innings. Not bad considering he has a couple of thrashings at the hands of the Rockies and Cardinals (6 and 7 ER, respectively) in the mix. He’s fixed his big issue from April: home runs. He gave up nine in six starts (actually they all came in four starts), but he’s given up just four since and three were in that Coors Field outing. He’s back to being a trustworthy stud.

Mat Latos, CIN (v. PIT) – Latos is facing the Pirates for the third time this year and he’s been great in the first two in Pittsburgh allowing four runs in 12.7 innings with 13 Ks and just three walks. He didn’t earn a decision in either much less a win, in fact he’s only 6-0 this year despite pitching great in most of his 14 starts. Oddly enough, he has a win in his 6 ER outing, though. The Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate against righties this month at 24% (Houston, of course, is still the highest).

BEST OF THE REST:

Andrew Cashner, SD (v. SF) – Cashner is on fire of late. In fact, the Padres are trusting him more too as he has hit or matched a career-high number of pitches in each of his last four outings, going over 100 for the first four times in his career. Meanwhile, the Giants are slumping. Players are dropping like flies and their performance is sinking. They have the fourth-worst OPS in the league against righties in June along with the worst walk and home run (HRs per AB) rates in all of baseball. Cashner’s first two starts were against SF and he allowed just three earned in 10 innings with 10 Ks and a pair of walks. He’s at a great price at every outlet, too.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD (at NYY) – While his strikeouts have calmed down since his big run in April, he has remained quite effectively. In fact, his strikeout percentage is down from 30% in April to 15% in month and a half since, but his ERA is down from 3.35 to 2.45 in same span. I don’t think he can stay at quite that level, but he can remain a strong asset and I like him against a weak Yankees offense that hasn’t been scary since April. They’re scoring just 3.2 runs per game in June.

Jarrod Parker, OAK (at TEX) – With a gem against the aforementioned weak Yankees, Parker now has eight quality starts in his last nine including five gems. He is working off a horrific 7.36 ERA from April so he’s still only at 4.45, but he’s definitely back to the emerging stud we saw throughout last season. His stuff was sharp even while he was struggling, but he has smoothed out his mechanics and improved his performance. The Rangers have been terrible in June as they are tied with three other teams for the second-fewest runs at 47 (2.9 runs per game). Parker has a trip to Texas within his run of quality work and he threw seven strong allowing three runs on seven base runs with five strikeouts and a walk.

Ervin Santana, KC (at CLE) – Big Erv has gone seven-plus in each of his last six outings posting a 2.68 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 43.7 innings despite also allowing eight home runs. Homers have always been his big issue, but he’s allowed just one in his last three outings with the other seven coming in back-to-back outings against the Angels and Cardinals. The Indians haven’t been their high-octane selves in June scoring 3.5 runs per game, down from their season mark of 4.6.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at STL) – Samardzija has been off a bit in June with a 5.89 ERA in three starts, but he also has 24 strikeouts. Lefties are thrashing him with a 1039 OPS during the June swoon and the Cards can stack five strong lefties in their lineup (four naturals and switch-hitting Carlos Beltran). His fastball has taken most of the brunt. I’d fade The Shark today in a tough matchup, there are too many other viable options.

Paul Maholm, ATL (v. NYM) – While Maholm’s strikeout surge in April has proved to be a mirage (22% in April, 14% since), he has remained solid with just a couple duds mixed into otherwise great work. The Mets are baseball’s fourth-worst team against lefties by OPS and fifth-worst by runs scores. In June, they are second-worst in OPS to only the Braves, although they are also the only team in the league to not yet face a lefty starter in June.

USE CAUTION:

Jordan Lyles, HOU (v. MIL) – Since getting trashed by Texas on May 12th, Lyles has ripped off six starts with a 1.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 18% K rate, and 6.5% BB rate in 37.7 innings of work.

Ross Detwiler, WAS (at PHI) – Detwiler really has a hard time posting huge daily fantasy scores because he doesn’t strike batters out very often. His season high is five (achieved three times) so he basically has to notch a win to really deliver and that’s going to be difficult with his teammates facing Cliff Lee. The Phillies are about average against southpaws usually (14th in OPS), but they’ve fallen to 28th in June with a 572 OPS, albeit exclusively in relief work as they’ve faced just one lefty starter (and that was Tom Gorzelanny, who is basically a reliever).

Esmil Rogers, TOR (v. COL) – Rogers has been transitioned into the rotation and he’s getting better each time out including a seven inning gem in Texas his last time out. I’m still a little reticent to trust him, but I’m keeping an eye on him for the long term.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (at ATL) – It’s Wheeler MLB debut and while I can definitely see him putting up some strikeouts against the whiff-heavy Braves, I wouldn’t bet on a huge debut. It’s just not a smart money play to assume a guy making his debut is going to dominate. Frankly there are just too many worthy options around to use Wheeler. At most sites Cashner is just a little bit more and he’s a much safer option with plenty of upside of his own. I’m excited that Wheeler is now in the majors, but his debut is best enjoyed as a fan tonight.

Alfredo Figaro, MIL (at HOU) – We might have a nice little sleeper on our hands here. He’s only made three starts, but he has electric stuff with 95-96 MPH heat that is backed up by a filthy slider. Now he’s only faced the Twins, Phillies, and Marlins, but it’s not as if the Astros are exactly lighting it up against righties. They have the third worst OPS against them overall at 661 and they’ve been even worst in June with a 573 that rates 30th in MLB.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Phil Hughes, NYY – Who knows what you’re getting here. This is a high-risk/moderate-reward play and I’m done trying to figure him out.

Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE – He’s quite Hughesian. Good luck if you take that plunge.

Nathan Eovaldi, MIA – I’m a huge fan of his in the long term, but it’s his season debut against a tough lineup.

• Dylan Axelrod, CWS – Meh.
• Zach Britton, BAL
• Jeremy Bonderman, SEA
• Joe Blanton, LAA
• Randall Delgado, ARI
• Jeff Francis, COL
• Charlie Morton, PIT
• Jake Odorizzi, TB
• Felix Doubront, BOS
• Mike Pelfrey, MIN

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PARK FACTORS: June 18th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 18th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.