Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 25th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-25 19:18:00

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 25th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Chris Sale, CWS (v. NYM) – Here are Sale’s June numbers: 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 K, and 6 BB in 26.3 IP over four starts. He has a 0-4 record to show for it as his offense has scored him a whopping eight runs, three of which came in his June 7th outing when gave up four runs thanks to a Josh Donaldson grand slam. They could muster just a single run for Sale in his complete game, six-hit and 14-strikeout domination of the Astros seven days later. He gets the lowly Mets offense tonight, but his teammates face a formidable opponent of their own in the form of Zack Wheeler.

Yu Darvish, TEX (at NYY) – While Darvish has thrown a gem in fewer than half of his outings, he has a quality start in 67% of his 15 outings so he isn’t exactly getting thrashed just because he’s allowing more than two earned. He hasn’t allowed more than four in any start and his incredible strikeout totals have more than made up for an extra run or two.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (v. ARI) – Gonzalez stayed hot in his last outing pushing his ERA down to an even 2.00 in four June starts and just 2.26 over his last nine dating back to May 1st as he’s all-but-erased his 5.34 April ERA. The D’Backs remain a bottom 10 team against lefties, too.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. TEX) – Kuroda has sort of become a Jordan Zimmermann-lite of the AL with his lowered K totals more than counterbalanced by the fact that he goes deep into games and continues to put up excellent ratios. The Rangers can be tough, but they have a paltry 3.4 runs per game in June. Of course that matches the output of Kuroda’s teammates on offense so we could see a big-time pitcher’s duel in the Bronx with both pitchers starving for run support.

BEST THE REST:

Ervin Santana, KC (v. ATL) – Santana has gone seven-plus in each of his last seven starts posting a 2.49 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 50.7 innings of work. His career-best 4% walk rate is fueling his success and while his home run issues do still pop up from time-to-time, he seems to confine the damage to particular outings (he has three outings 3+ HR allowed). The Braves can bring forth one of his biggest assets (missing bats) or expose that HR flaw in short order. This ranking bets on the former.

Kris Medlen, ATL (at KC) – Medlen’s sub-3.00 ERA catches the eye immediately, but then the 1.27 WHIP tempers expectations. Of course if you dig into the gamelog a bit you see that he has a 2.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last seven starts with a 38/6 K/BB ratio in 41.7 IP. The biggest bummer about Medlen’s matchup and several matchups this evening is that they pit two strong options against each other making it tough to see where we might be able to pull a win. Wins, of course, are unpredictable, but we can find settings where our probability is increased and those spots are rare among the best talents tonight.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. MIN) – The Twins are a better offense than you might think ranking seventh in the league against righties during June, but Fernandez has amazing in his debut season and particularly at home with a 1.75 ERA in 36 IP (4.12 in 43.7 on the road).

Jeff Locke, PIT (at SEA) – After constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop with him, it’s time to start giving Locke his due. He currently has the best ERA in the National League at 2.01 and while his 1.6 K/BB is really ugly, it’s offset by his meager 6.2 H/9. The Mariners are not only 23rd in the league against lefties this season (670), but they’re struggling mightily of late with a 560 clip in June.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (at OAK) – Credit where it’s due. He’s been incredible this year and while he has been better at home (despite it being an environment that isn’t exactly tailored to his flyball ways), he gets the perfect venue in Oakland: where flyballs go to die. His 1.07 HR/9 is his lowest total since 2005’s 0.96 from when he was on the Boston Red Sox. His meager 13.5% K rate is totally uninspiring, but you can’t argue the results through 100 innings.

USE CAUTION:

Justin Masterson, CLE (at BAL) – Masterson bumps down a tier only because that O’s can really put attack Masterson’s weakness. They have some fearsome lefties including MLB’s best thus far in Chris Davis plus Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and Nate McLouth. Of course none of them have had much success against him in their small samples to date, but it’s still prudent to look elsewhere if his price isn’t commensurate with the risk.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at SD) – This is similar to Bronson Arroyo. He’s actually better at home, but he’s headed to a very friendly venue, though he’s nothing like Arroyo in batted ball profile with a 50% groundball rate that plays well everywhere. He’d be much higher if he could improve that 15% K rate.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (at CWS) – Wheeler’s second start comes against the anemic White Sox, but he did walk five batters in his MLB debut so don’t let the name value and prospect status unduly sway you. This isn’t a bad setup, but he’s far from a guarantee this early in his career.

Joe Saunders, SEA & Tommy Milone, OAK (v. PIT and CIN, respectively) – Two of the best homebodies in the game toe the slab tonight as Saunders showcases his 2.53 home ERA (6.46 on the road) against the meek Pirates offense. Milone gets a tougher opponent, but boasts an even better 2.48 home ERA (5.07 on the road) along with a 4.1 K/BB in Oakland. The pair are different pitchers in their friendly home environs.

Chris Tillman, BAL (v. CLE) – He has actually done a lot of good work within his 15 starts, but it’s been inconsistent. He still gives up too many homers and walks, but it’s hard to argue with the fact that he’s given up more than three earned just once in his last 12 starts (3.07 ERA in 73.3 IP). This is a tough matchup, but the former top prospect appears to be maturing before our eyes. His stuff has always been impressive, but he’s finally harnessing it regularly.

Matt Moore, TB (v. TOR) – He had a quality start in New York against the Yankees, but do you really trust him based on that start? We’re still looking at a guy with a 10.61 ERA in June with 15 K and 14 BB in 18.7 IP. He hasn’t more than six and a third in any of his last five starts (well six if you count the rain delay in Cleveland, but that’s disingenuous).

Kyle Lohse, MIL(v. CHC) – Lohse gets a chance to stay hot by facing the Cubs for the first time this season. After a brutal May where he allowed at least four runs in four of five outings, he has railed in June allowing just six runs in 26 innings (2.08 ERA) with a flat 1.00 WHIP. We’ve now seen two brilliant months and then the dud that was May. I’m more apt to trust him than not, especially against the Cubbies. They’re 20th for the season with a 699 OPS, but they’ve been brought down by their 608 in June which ranks 28th.

Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. COL) – Dempster has quietly righted himself over the last five with a quality start in each outing good for a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 33.7 IP. The strikeouts have plummeted from 28% in his first 10 starts to 16% during the run, but the ERA is down over a run from 4.69, too. Walks remain a huge issue and make him a risky play against almost any team, but the Rockies have fallen back significantly on the road after a hot start in April. Their 665 OPS is 23rd and their 6% BB rate is 25th.

Kevin Correia, MIN (at MIA) – Not just the obligatory Marlins opponent mention here, but rather Correia has a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his last three with an impressive and unexpected 19 strikeouts over 18 innings. The one walk is more his MO as a control artist, but still quite impressive.

Rick Porcello, DET (v. LAA) – The last time he faced this team he allowed nine earned in just 2/3rds of an inning. Of course he also has a 3.43 ERA in 63 innings since then despite outings of six and five runs mixed in. The most impressive part of Porcello’s run is that he has backed it up with 60 strikeouts against a meager 10 walks. The Angels are toting a 798 OPS against righties in June, good for fourth in MLB. This could be a heavyweight battle between two strong arms or both could be finding the showers after five innings.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at DET) – There’s been a paradigm shift on Wilson as he is now almost underrated after spending most of last year being somewhat-to-grossly overrated based on his previous work. He still walks far too many batters, but he’s got a quality start in 11 of his last 13 with a 3.38 ERA during the 82.7 inning span. The 1.34 WHIP that goes with is the scary part.

Mark Buehrle, TOR (at TB) – Buehrle is on fire of late with a sparkling 2.13 ERA in his last six over 38 innings which even includes a 28/9 K/BB ratio. He always put together a few runs of good work during the season. The problem is you never know when the bottom is going to fall out and he’s going to go back to giving up five or six runs per outing for a few weeks as he did through mid-May. The Rays are lapping the field in June with an 867 OPS against southpaws (Tigers are second at 832). Tread carefully here.

Jason Marquis, SD (v. PHI) – His solid results aren’t at all supported by his base skills and he’s not even better in Petco – either from an ERA or skills standpoint. He’s allowed more than three runs just once in 11 starts, but I just don’t trust him at all. The secondary indicators suggest his 3.59 ERA is smoke and mirrors as evidenced by his 5.65 FIP and 4.91 SIERA. Hard pass.

Jake Westbrook, STL (at HOU) – I really don’t buy his 1.76 ERA at all. His 1.40 WHIP is about to the ERA down and his 0.95 K/BB is hilariously bad. I wouldn’t even have included him if it weren’t for a start against the Astros, who we know can go freezing cold at any moment. This is needlessly playing with fire, though. Of course, I say that and he will probably fan 14 Astros randomly (which would almost double his season K total).

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Trevor Cahill, ARI – Coming off a start where he went just an inning before leaving with an injury. Too much risk on a full-slate, look elsewhere.

Edwin Jackson, CHC – I actually believe in him long-term as his skills are much better than his 5.49 ERA, but even a Ryan Braun-less Brewer offense can do some damage. Though they may also be without Carlos Gomez who is day-to-day with a shoulder sprain. Even still, this isn’t a great spot.

• Lucas Harrell
• Stephen Fife
• Juan Nicasio
• Mike Kickham

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PARK FACTORS: June 25th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 25th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.