Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 26th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-26 22:04:57

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 26th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Lance Lynn, STL (at HOU) – Lynn severely disappointed us daily fantasy players the last time he had a prime matchup as he allowed seven runs in just five innings of work against the Marlins in Miami. Thankfully he still notched six strikeouts (something he’s done in each of his last four outings) and miraculously the win thanks to the onslaught his offense put on Tome Koehler.

The Astros are 11-12 in June which constitutes as a helluva month for them given their talent level, but it hasn’t been because of improved efforts against righties as they have an MLB-worst 590 OPS while fanning 24% of the time. Lynn should log his fifth straight outing of at least six strikeouts, though he should also break the streak of four straight during which he has exactly six strikeouts. It isn’t outlandish to suggest that he could double the total.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. SF) – Gosh, what’s wrong with Kershaw?! He might actually have his first month with an ERA north of 2.00 for the first time this season. He has a 2.77 ERA through four starts so far and he’s “only” gone six innings in a pair of the starts yet for some reason it kinda feels like he’s been… I dunno… off? Of course that is ridiculous, but watching in Pittsburgh and San Diego his last two times out hasn’t felt like vintage Kershaw. And that folks is when you know you’re expectations are far too high! That he isn’t the most expensive arm at every outlet (only DailyJoust) is beyond me, but it makes him the obvious high-dollar option at DJ. By the way, the only reason I didn’t slot him as the top dog is because Lynn comes cheap and gets the whiffiest team in the league. He has a chance for a transcendent outing. Kershaw, meanwhile, should simply be awesome.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. ARI) – It takes a lot to push Zimm to third on a given day, but two strikeout-heavy studs will do that. That’s still the only thing that keeps him from being one of the top three fantasy arms in the entire game. He does have 8, 6, and 9 strikeouts in his last three, but we’ve yet to see the consistency that would lead us to believe that this is the beginning of a trend. He had 8, 7, 5, and 6 in a four-start stretch to open May before following it up with 1, 3, and 4 in the next three. He is still a total beast, but the lack of consistent strikeout work makes him tough to invest in at his lofty cost.

Mike Minor, ATL (at KC) – Look at this jerkstore here. I have a personal bone to pick with Mr. Minor. Obviously I have no idea if he’s really a jerkstore, but he has made me angry with his last two outings as I trusted him to deliver big against the Giants and Mets only to be wildly disappointed, especially in the latter of the two. He has a pair of six-inning, four-earned run outings in a row. His 13 strikeouts are nice, but they only mitigated the damage of the mediocre outing. The Royals are league average against southpaws (716 OPS compared to 710 league average), but a well-above average talent like Minor shouldn’t have issues with them. With a fair price at several outlets, I’m afraid I might be going back to the well a third straight time.

BEST THE REST:

Cole Hamels, PHI (at SD) – Hamels has looked better mechanically in most of June, but gave back some of his great work in his most recent outing against the Mets. They used to own him before last year when he fared well in four starts, but sputtered some allowing 10 base runners and four earned on June 21st. Like the Stros, the Padres have surged in June (in fact more so going 14-10) and it’s been due in large part to a destruction of lefties as their 814 OPS sits third behind only TB and DET.

Scott Feldman, CHC (at MIL) – Feldman is at a bargain basement price for someone with a strong 3.39 ERA. He has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts, but he gets a sterilized version of the Brewers lineup as they will be without Ryan Braun and could also be without Carlos Gomez who is day-to-day with a shoulder sprain. He held the entire lineup to just one earned (four total) in five innings back on April 21st. He allowed just six base runners and struck out six in that outing, too.

Wade Miley, ARI (at WAS) – Miley has just been too hittable in his sophomore season allowing 9.9 base hits per nine innings and that has elevated his WHIP to an ugly 1.46 mark in 88 innings. So what earned him this lofty post? He is squaring off against the league’s worst hitting team against lefty starters. The Nats have a putrid 611 OPS against southpaws. This is your bargain play of the day.

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (v. CHC) – I see ya, YoGa. Gallardo hasn’t given up an earned run in his last 21 innings (three unearned against HOU his last time out) posting a 0.81 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in that same stretch. He catches the Cubs at a great time (is there really a bad time?) as they have the second-worst OPS against right-handers in June with a meager 616 effort. Their season-long 700 isn’t much better, but it at least ranks 21st. He isn’t really out there for a low price at many outlets, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth a look, especially at the sites where you need more than one arm.

USE CAUTION:

Andy Pettitte, NYY (v. TEX) – Pettitte has been rough since returning from the disabled list, allowing at least four earned in three of his four outings en route to a 4.91 ERA in 25.7 IP. His 3.8 K/BB in that span is very nice, but he’s allowed 30 hits including 20 in his last two against the Angels and Rays. You might not realize it from the 10-13 Rangers of June who are scoring just 3.3 runs per game (after scoring 4.8 through May), but this lineup is still potent and not worth messing with on most night.

Tim Lincecum, SF (at LAD – Do I really need to outline why you should practice caution with Lincecum at this point?

Luis Mendoza, KC (v. ATL) – Mendoza has quietly been pretty good lately after a particularly rough start. He had a 7.00 ERA after his first four appearances, but has since run off nine starts with a 3.35 ERA. No strikeouts to speak of really (13% K rate), but he’s allowed more than three runs just once. I would say this is the perfect start to see if he can get some strikeouts, but he faced the Astros on June 9th and fanned just three in seven innings. Of course it was seven shutout innings, so there is nothing to complain about, but that’s just not a part of his game. I still don’t fully trust him, but I have to recognize the strong work.

Robbie Erlin, SD (v. PHI) – This is one of my favorite prospects. He’s not a huge star-level prospect like a Zack Wheeler, but he’s pretty good and can definitely put up good numbers in Petco Park. He was really sharp in his first MLB start throwing 6.7 strong innings against Toronto. He allowed two runs on eight hits, striking out four. The Phillies aren’t much better against lefties for the season than the Blue Jays and they have a 598 OPS for June so this is a nice spot for him. He’s not available at every outlet, but those where he is are offering him for peanuts.

Jose Alvarez, DET (v. LAA) – He’s been good in his first two MLB starts, but honestly if you were going to go with an unproven rookie, Erlin is the choice. Of course, he isn’t available at every site and Alvarez is. He gets a third straight tough lineup in terms of star power, but the Angels don’t fare too well against lefties. Their 663 OPS is 25th in the league and their batting average drops from .279 against righties to .231 against lefties. Alvarez could be a sneaky low-dollar play, too.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Shaun Marcum, NYM
• John Danks, CWS
• Scott Kazmir, CLE
• Tommy Hanson, LAA
• Jason Hammel, BAL
• Justin Grimm, TEX
• Erik Bedard, HOU

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PARK FACTORS: June 26th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 26th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.