Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 4th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-04 21:04:52

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 4th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
(today we have an abbreviated version of our normal SP rundown)

Jordan Zimmerman, WAS (v. NYM) – On the heels of his worst start in two years, Zimm hosts the lowly Mets with a chance to erase the damage inflicted by Baltimore. The surprising thing is that he doesn’t register as the most costly option at any outlet. I’m sure this is related to the implosion against the Orioles, but it creates a strong buying opportunity for one of the game’s best. The downside is that this fact won’t be lost on your opponents so it might end up as a cancel-out situation where a large percentage of your tournament has him.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. CHC) – Weaver isn’t drawing the top salary at a lot of outlets, either. I’m not suggesting that he necessarily should be, but I expected some big price tags with him. Maybe it is the fact that he has just three starts and this is his second off of the DL. Or maybe it’s that the Cubs are actually league average against righties. They are right smack dab in the middle in OPS against right-handers with a 728 mark. Weaver, like Zimmermann, isn’t a huge strikeout guy and maybe that is depressing their value, too.

Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. CWS) – Oh OK, this makes sense. Hernandez is drawing at all but one outlet on our salary chart and it makes sense. Of course that’s also the reason he rates third. He is more than worthy of the top salary, especially if you can build a legitimate offense around him, but when there are comparable options at cheaper prices, I’m always going to lean toward them. The White Sox made Joe Saunders look like a stud last night (you’re welcome, btw! … of course I have my misses, too, so I have to brag on the hits) and so it could get really ugly for them against King Felix.

They have a .286 OBP against right-handers. And it actually drops on the road, although just slightly to .284, but holy smokes that is terrible. Hernandez “only” has a 3.18 ERA at home which actually looks high compared to his 1.96 road work, but he has a 28% K rate and 8.3 K/BB at home which tops his 26% and 4.5 road marks pretty easily. The .368 home BABIP is egregious and the data suggests it’s more fluke than truth. Again, if you have the low-dollar offensive options that you like then invest in Hernandez because his price tag could scare some away despite the almost guaranteed point total.

Mike Minor, ATL (v. PIT) – If I was ranking on only the likelihood of highest score, Felix and Minor would be 1-2, but I factor in cost as I mentioned earlier which is why they slide to 3-4 – which is still great. If you can get similar point totals at a discounted rate, you want to go for that, but like I said with Zimm sometimes those guys who are amazing and discounted are going to be obvious picks so it’s a tough balance.

You might be nervous to pick a pitcher against a 35-23 team, but the Pirates aren’t winning because of hitting so even if he gets saddled with a no-decision, he is set up to pitch extremely well. He has been extremely stingy with base runners at home as he stifles both hits (5.9 H/9) and walks (1.7% BB rate) in 33.3 innings resulting in a 2.43 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. That would be problematic for a good hitting team, but the Pirates have a meager 674 OPS against lefties including a .300 OBP.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. TB) – Sanchez was absolutely cruising against the Pirates his last time out until a tough sequence of about eight to 10 pitches to a few batters in the seventh inning that took him from an incredible gem that could go the distance to a disastrous five earned in 6.7 innings. That’s how quickly it can turn on a dime with pitching. A.J. Burnett was squeezed a bit by home plate umpire Dan Iassogna (leading to the ejection of his catcher Russell Martin) and that turned a solid start into a complete dud in a hurry. Now Burnett bears some of the brunt, too, without question, but I’m just illustrating another example of how fine the art of pitching can be even pitch-to-pitch let alone start-to-start.

Sanchez has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three and yet his price point is still quite high at most outlets thanks in large part to his massive strikeout totals. He still fanned nine Pirates in that last outing allowing him to still post double digits at several sites. The amazing 31% strikeout rate protect Sanchez’s point total affords him the ability to score well in his mediocre outings (and even a bad one as we saw in Pittsburgh). The Rays have been on fire since May, but the bulk of their damage comes against lefties. They have been solid against righties so this is a tough matchup, but don’t just look at the composite numbers of the Rays offense and assume he’s facing a true juggernaut. In the last two weeks, their 709 OPS against righties is 15th in the league.

Jake Peavy, CWS (at SEA) – If there is a negative for Hernandez, it’s that his team’s lineup is facing a formidable foe in Peavy. The Mariners offense has been better than normal (not a high bar to clear) this year, but the damage has been against lefties where they are league average. They still languish in the bottom 6-8 against righties. Peavy has a 5.00 ERA on the road, but that is heavily influenced by two starts: his first (on the road) and last. His second start of the season was in Washington and he allowed six in just 5.3 innings. Then he went on a four-start run of 2.70 ERA on the road that included a seven inning-one run gem in Cleveland, but his last outing erased that great work as he gave up six in four innings to the cross-town rival Cubs. The problem in both duds? Home runs. He allowed three in Washington and then a grand slam to his counterpart Travis Wood in the Cubs outing. I trust him in this spot. Securing a win won’t be easy so if your favorite daily outlet heavily rewards them, you might want to look elsewhere in the big tourneys where you almost have to get an SP win to contend for first place. Otherwise, I love him here.

BEST THE REST:

Chris Tillman, BAL (at HOU) – Tillman has been missing more bats of late with a 23% K rate in his last four compared to his 19.6% season-long rate. I guarantee everyone checks who is facing the Astros and Marlins every morning before they even get into the aces. Tillman is a decent option, but my concern is the home run. He’s allowed nine during that same four-start stretch I mentioned earlier. Nine would be terrible if that’s all he’s allowed all year. Allowing that many in four starts is beyond horrific and he’s fortunate to have only given up a 5.16 ERA in that span. Be careful here. It’s not a slam dunk.

Jonathan Pettibone, PHI (v. MIA) – Does it matter what I write here? He’s facing Miami so he’s already on everyone’s radar. He’s already trounced them once this year, too.

Homer Bailey, CIN (v. COL) – After posting the fourth best OPS on the road in April, the Rockies are starting to fade away from Coors Field as they jumped back to 23rd for May. That said, I’m still scared of this lineup even with someone like Bailey who I really like as a pitcher. His 2.32 ERA at home is supported by an insane 31% strikeout rate and .188 batting average against. His K/BB on the road is actually 4.8 (compared to 3.0 at home), but he’s had some struggles that have led to a 5.11 ERA away from Cincy. I don’t think he’s quite a 2.32 ERA pitcher at home skills-wise, but he’s been improved there. Tread cautiously here.

USE CAUTION:

Matt Moore, TB (at DET) – You can’t argue with the 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but you also couldn’t pay me to use him today. The Tigers are baseball’s second-best team against lefties this year, Moore’s price isn’t cheap, and he’s due for some regression as those incredible results aren’t entirely built on great skills. His 23% strikeout rate is fine, but his 11% walk rate is horrible. He’s succeeding by limiting hits (which is awesome and a real skill) an at MLB-best 5.7 H/9 clip and then stranding anyone who gets on base with a reliever-esque 91% LOB rate. That simply cannot last. Pass.

Tyler Skaggs, ARI (at STL) / Michael Wacha, STL (v. ARI) – The rookies battling head-to-head could be amazing, but it’s more likely to disappoint against expectations as they each make just their second starts of the season (and of Wacha’s career). Each is facing a very talented lineup, though the edge on paper goes to Skaggs as the Cards are the third-worst team in the league against lefties with a 630 OPS thanks a remarkably punchless .336 SLG. It’s even worse recently at 595 and .319, respectively, since mid-May. I paired them together because they are squaring off in an exciting battle, but Wacha is a stay-away while Skaggs has some sneaky upside.

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (at PHI) – He’s been fine, the Phillies aren’t that great (except for you, Dom!), but the question is the same with every favorable Marlins start: will they score enough to give him a win?

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (at WAS) – I actually kinda like this matchup for Hefner from a potential scoring standpoint except the fact that his facing Zimmermann drastically cuts his chances at a win. Now with such a paltry price, he can still easily be a net-positive value even without the win so I wouldn’t totally run away from him just because of the lowered win probability. The Nats offense is terrible, especially compared to the preseason expectations.

They are one of five teams toting a sub-.300 OBP against righties (the Mets are another, maybe neither guy gets a decision). Hefner needs to be careful with his pitch selection because while the Nats are terrible on the whole, they have some success against secondary stuff including the slider – Hefner’s best pitcher – and changeup which is his worst. Their offense sputters against righty fastballs, but he only throws his 52% of the time. Hopefully John Buck is set to call for a lot of heaters tonight to exploit the Nats weakness.

Ted Lilly, LAD (v. SD) – He’s rounding into form and I actually like this spot for him. We’ve only seen four outings from Lilly and he’s yet to hit six innings, but he’s looked better each time out. He’s allowed a 597 OPS to current Padres despite Chase Headley hitting him for a solid 797 mark. Headley is in a huge cold spell right now, so if Lilly can extend that, he could breeze through the Padres for six or seven strong. Don’t sleep on him.

Jeff Locke, PIT (at ATL) – On the heels of a shellacking for Burnett last night, you might be scared of the Braves facing their former farmhand, but this has some nice potential. First, Locke keeps the ball down (52% GB rate) and limits home runs (0.7 HR/9) which is the scariest part of the Atlanta offense. Next is the fact that the Braves haven’t been that sharp against southpaws lately despite their decent 717 OPS against them for the season (ranked 13th). In May they fell to 657 and in just the last two weeks they are down to 535, albeit in a tiny sample. Locke doesn’t garner many strikeouts, but I could strike out six or seven Braves so he could add some value there, too. Your tolerance for risk will determine how willing you are to play Locke here. That, and your dependence on wins which is dependent on the outlet you’re using as some reward them heavily and others focus more on the components that make up a win.

Josh Johnson, TOR (at SF) – The Giants were actually hitting pretty well on the year, but they’ve hit the skids of late with a 675 OPS (good for 22nd) since May 15th giving Johnson a softer landing as he returns from the disabled list. The risk is massive, but there is some payoff potential, too, because the price is so low relative to his peak value.

Scott Feldman, CHC (at LAA) – I realize he has a 2.82 ERA on the season, but he’s faced three formidable offense. He smashed his former teammates, the Texas Rangers, for seven shutout innings back on May 6th. In the other two, he was the one who got smashed as he allowed five and four runs to the Reds and Braves, respectively, in just 11.3 innings of work. He gets his fourth tough offense tonight and despite the strong season work, I’m avoiding this entirely. I couldn’t put him in the “ignore” pool because he has been good enough to merit mention, but I think there are far better values. I will also point out that he has a 1.64 home ERA and 4.23 on the road.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Several of these are matchup-related as they are some decent arms, but I don’t like the inherent risk associated with them. Starting at Lohse on down, it’s because of poor performance mostly along with some tough matchups mixed in.

• Justin Grimm, TEX
• Scott Kazmir, CLE
• Tim Lincecum, SF
• Clayton Richard, LAD
• Ryan Dempster, BOS
• David Phelps, NYY
• Kyle Lohse, MIL
• Juan Nicasio, COL
• Lucas Harrell, HOU
• Samuel Deduno, MIN
• Luis Mendoza, KC

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PARK FACTORS: June 4th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 4th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.