Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 16th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-16 16:53:40

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 16th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Adam Wainwright, STL (v. NYM) – It’s not even fair that teams have to face Shelby Miller one night and then Wainwright the next. We saw how that went for the Colorado Rockies last week as they were limited to three hits in the 18 innings they faced the pair. Just two years removed from his 2011 Tommy John Surgery, Wainwright is striking out batters at a career-high 24% clip while also walking the fewest of his career at just 1.8%. The Mets are just 26th in the league with a 681 OPS against right-handers while faring even worse against righty curveballs – Waino’s best pitcher – with a league-worst 351 OPS (compared against a 586 league average). They got an early reprieve from Miller last night who went just 5.7 innings last night, but they have their work cut out for them against Wainwright.

Mat Latos, CIN (at MIA) – Latos hit his first roadblock of the season allowing six in six against Brewers his last time out. He has walked three in each of his last three outings which is about the only “troubling” aspect to his game right now and yet even with those nine walks, he is still carrying his best walk rate ever. He gets the lowly Marlins and we know how much they struggle against anyone and everyone. They have a 601 composite OPS that jumps allll the way up to 612 at home. Latos will be a popular pick today even with several studs throwing.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at SD) – If you just took the perception of how Strasburg’s season has been whether in articles, on TV, or on Twitter, you’d probably attach a 4.00-4.05 ERA to him given the pessimism. But he has a 3.10 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and he’s still fanning 25% of the batters he faces while walking the same 7% he walked last year. In short, he is still awesome. Pittsburgh got to him a bit (4 ER in 7 IP) as did Chicago (4 R in 5 IP, but 0 ER), but I don’t see the reason for some of the panic we’ve seen surrounding him. The Padres have improved greatly at home against righties with a 734 OPS (16th in MLB) so far after an NL-worst 655 (29th in MLB) last year. I still like Stras here on a homecoming trip to San Diego.

Justin Verlander, DET (at TEX) v. Yu Darvish, TEX (v. DET) – It’s our first joint ranking of pitchers! This might be the best matchup all year on paper as Verlander squares off against Darvish in Texas. The two could throw dueling no-hitters. The reason JV and Yu didn’t garner the top two spots in today’s ranking is because they are facing each other and tough lineups which puts a win in doubt for either. It’s not tough to envision both shutting down the strong lineups being run out by each team, but then only one can get a win and that’s assuming they don’t each throw nine shutout innings and turn it over to the bullpens rendering both winless.

BEST THE REST:

Alex Cobb, TB (v. BOS) – Cobb has already logged a quality start against these Red Sox this year going 6.7 innings allowing three earned (though four in all) with six strikeouts and nine base runners allowed. He had one of the craziest outings in MLB history his last time out fanning 13 in just 4.7 innings of work. Yes, he fanned 13 of the 14 guys he got out and yet couldn’t log even five innings because he also put seven on and allowed three runs. Cobb has been much tougher on lefties yielding a 623 OPS compared to 838 for righties. Boston doesn’t have many lefties and they can platoon at least a couple, but of course two key cogs do bat from the left side: David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Predicting wins in near impossible, but Cobb has the best set up in this series as he goes deep into games (averaging about 6.7 innings per outing) and his lineup is facing the weakest starter in the whole series in Felix Doubront.

USE CAUTION:

Andy Pettitte, NYY (v. SEA) – Don’t sleep on the Mariners against lefties, especially on the road. Now that’s a thin slice of only month and a half old data so it’s not massive, but their 772 OPS ranks sixth in baseball in those situations. They are even sharp against Pettitte’s best pitch, the slider, toting a 720 OPS against them – fourth in baseball. That’s overall against lefties, when you make it lefties on the road, it jumps to a league-best 897, albeit in just 43 plate appearances. You see why Pettitte has some caution tied to him today even though he’s facing the perceived lowly Mariners.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. CIN) – My primary concern with Fernandez remains innings. He needs to be remarkably pitch-efficient to get deep into a game and then miraculously needs his team to score for him to put him in position for a win. His last two outings have been amazing as he has gone seven and six innings, respectively, while throwing just 82 and 86 pitches. Perhaps most impressively is that he fanned nine and seven guys in the two outings as well. That’s peak Fernandez and it’s been great, but that was against the Phillies and Dodgers. The Reds are starting to turn up the offense. After a slow April, they are eighth in baseball against righties with an 810 OPS. Be careful here.

Matt Cain, SF (at COL) – This one is straightforward: Cain has struggled with home runs this year and he’s going into Coors. That means you have to be cautious, even though we’re dealing with a true stud who has been a little shaky to start the season. He’s been strong in his first two during May allowing just three runs in 15.3 innings which is definitely encouraging. I could see giving him a shot at a site where he was just too cheap to pass up the way struggling batters like Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp have been at times, but today’s slate is deep enough where you likely won’t have to mess with the risk of Cain.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. SF) – Chacin has a 2.70 ERA at home and on the road with three starts in each split. His 1.05 home WHIP is much better than the 1.38 on the road, too. The Giants have been better than I think most assume given their recent history of great pitching/poor offense teams. They are league average against righties with a 721 OPS, though they struggle against both of Chacin’s best secondary pitches: the changeup and slider. Their work against the pair combined leaves them 27th in baseball with a 507 OPS. Meanwhile, Coors just hasn’t been that scary so far this year, either. Chacin could be a sneaky play today.

Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. MIL) – Milwaukee’s done some good work against lefties (815 OPS overall, 737 on the road) and it’s Liriano’s second start. If you’ve been a baseball fan for amount of time you understand the highs and lows associated with Liriano and you will factor that in accordingly when deciding whether or not you can stomach the risk today. He can miss bats consistently which mitigates some risk, but again there are just likely better options available that you’d feel more comfortable with even without paying through the nose.

Jose Quintana, CWS (at LAA) – The Angels are still sputtering as a whole. They show signs of life from time to time, but they haven’t been anywhere near the frightening offense we assumed they would be coming into the season. Quintana, meanwhile, has improved quite a bit so far this season. His strikeout rate is up four percentage points to 18.4% while his walk rate is down just over a percentage point to 6.1% in his 38.7 innings of work. One downside to him is that the White Sox offense has been inept too making wins tougher to come by for Q.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Edinson Volquez, SD
• Jonathon Niese, NYM
• Felix Doubront, BOS
• Jerome Williams, LAA
• Hiram Burgos, MIL
• Aaron Harang, SEA

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PARK FACTORS: May 16th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 16th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.