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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 20th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-20 21:58:59

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 20th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% IMP% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Sabathia NYY 59.1 3.19 3.65 1.28 44.4% 11.1% 21.6% 6.0% 1.21 1.03
Garcia BAL 16.1 5.51 5.23 1.16 33.0% 0.0% 9.1% 6.1% 2.20 1.10
Correia MIN 53.2 3.35 4.65 1.23 50.0% 0.0% 10.1% 3.7% 1.01 1.39
Teheran ATL 41.1 4.57 4.23 1.48 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 4.4% 1.31 1.35
Hamels PHI 56.2 4.61 4.35 1.29 55.6% 33.3% 19.5% 10.0% 1.43 1.13
Sanabia MIA 45 5.00 5.45 1.76 25.0% 25.0% 12.1% 11.1% 1.60 1.15
Cueto CIN 17.1 2.60 3.17 1.04 33.3% 0.0% 26.1% 8.7% 1.04 2.30
Marcum NYM 21.1 6.75 4.92 1.69 25.0% 25.0% 13.3% 7.1% 0.42 0.77
Colon OAK 47.1 4.56 4.02 1.10 25.0% 25.0% 14.3% 1.1% 1.33 1.11
Lindblom TEX 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 Season Debut 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00
Kershaw LAD 64.1 1.40 3.05 0.87 66.7% 0.0% 27.7% 7.0% 0.56 1.21
Gallardo MIL 52 4.50 4.43 1.46 33.3% 11.1% 15.8% 8.8% 0.69 1.81
Lester BOS 59.2 2.72 3.54 1.01 55.6% 11.1% 20.9% 6.3% 0.60 1.67
Axelrod CWS 46.1 4.27 4.82 1.32 37.5% 25.0% 12.9% 6.5% 1.17 0.95
Guthrie KCR 54.1 2.82 4.78 1.29 62.5% 12.5% 13.5% 7.6% 1.82 1.20
Keuchel HOU 28 4.82 4.43 1.64 50.0% 0.0% 12.6% 9.5% 1.61 2.15
Corbin ARI 53.1 1.52 4.00 1.07 100.0% 0.0% 19.5% 8.1% 0.34 1.46
Garland COL 46 4.89 4.51 1.50 25.0% 12.5% 13.1% 7.1% 1.37 1.76
Miller STL 51.1 1.40 2.84 0.88 62.5% 0.0% 29.1% 6.1% 0.53 1.02
Marquis SDP 49 3.49 4.89 1.35 50.0% 12.5% 13.9% 11.5% 1.47 2.08
Duke WAS 15 8.40 3.85 1.73 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 5.6% 1.20 1.75
Vogelsong SFG 41.1 8.06 4.24 1.84 0.0% 50.0% 19.1% 8.5% 2.40 1.06

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at MIL) – Hey, the Brewers are second-best in OPS against lefties with a 788 mark … and I couldn’t possibly care less. This is the National League’s best pitcher and there is a strong case for him as the best in baseball even ahead of Justin Verlander so he tends to rise above splits like that. In fact, he has already dominated these Brewers once in 2013 (which gives you an idea of how well they’ve done against the other lefties to still be second in baseball) going eight scoreless allowing just four hits and fanning 12. Jousters actually don’t have to pay top dollar for him today as that distinction belongs to this next guy at their site.

shelby miller

Shelby Miller, StL (at SD) – Miller has been absolutely amazing this year and a trip to Petco Park is as nice a venue as any for him to continue to his 14.7 scoreless innings streak. The Padres have been a bit better offensively this year, especially at home where their 741 OPS slots them right in the middle of the league as the 16th-best club, but I still favor Miller in this matchup.

Jon Lester, BOS (at CWS) – Lester has been excellent this year as he has gotten back to the ace-level arm we saw prior to 2012. Now he gets crack at baseball’s third-worst offense against lefties with a 638 OPS. In fact, it drops to 556 against lefties at home so the White Sox have their work cut out for them against Lester. His fastball and changeup have driven his success and the White Sox are even worse against those pitches, sitting as second-worst team with a combined 625 OPS against them.

CC Sabathia, NYY (at BAL) – Sabathia has already thwarted the O’s once this year with an eight-inning gem where he allowed just one earned run while scattering eight hits and fanning nine. His secondary stuff has been his ticket to success this year, especially his slider which is yielding a 297 OPS to opponents with 31 of his 54 strikeouts. The O’s have hit lefty sliders pretty well with a 792 OPS, but they are also striking out on 44% of the time against the pitch.

BEST OF THE REST:

cole%20hamels

Cole Hamels, PHI (at MIA) – This is new territory for Hamels because he would usually be an unquestioned “Cream of the Crop” guy, especially in Miami, but he’s struggled this year and it’s a mechanical issue as my podcast co-host Doug Thorburn outlined when we discussed his start against Patrick Corbin a few weeks ago. His performance has struggled across the board and while I do believe in long-term, I don’t necessarily think you should instantly select him for his Miami start without giving it a second thought.

Now some outlets will make it easy by pricing him so much below the other aces that you almost have to utilize him, but if you have some low-dollar hitting options you love that afford you a large pitching budget, you may want to avoid Hamels even in a juicy spot like Miami against the anemic Marlins.

Patrick Corbin, ARI (at COL) – Coors Field hasn’t been the monster it was last year just yet, but we saw some glimpses of his usual craziness in a four-game set between the Giants and Rockies this past weekend where the two teams put up 12.5 runs per game. Corbin can survive in Coors because he keeps the ball down as evidenced by his 48% groundball rate, but he isn’t a huge swing-and-miss guy so the ball in play a good bit, too. I wouldn’t completely run away from him, especially if the price is appealing, but use some discretion in this venue.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (at NYM) – I’m one of those who jumps right back on the horse when star pitcher returns from injury. I know some like to let it roll for a start or two to see how he looks, but I don’t want any missed starts from a stud. Daily is a little different, but there is still a factor at play in that the returning pitcher will often see his price depressed from his time missed so pouncing on the initial start is your best chance to get a high value arm at a discount. The Mets are one of the league’s worst offenses, too, so Cueto gets a soft landing upon returning. He will look to take advantage of their 694 home OPS.

jeremy%20guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at HOU) – Did you notice all of our top eight guys are on the road today? That’s a weird quirk, huh? The Astros are hitting much better on the road, though, so this actually works out better for Guthrie. Their 666 OPS at Minute Maid is the fourth-worst home OPS in the league and they pair it with a 30% strikeout rate, a league worst. They are even worse against righties at home with a 590 OPS and the same 30% strikeout rate. Guthrie will lean on his curve and slider to keep the Stros in check as both his fastball and changeup haven’t been nearly as effective.

USE CAUTION:

Julio Teheran, ATL (v. MIN) – Teheran got on a roll starting with his outing in Coors Field back in late-April which has spurred a four-start run of 2.84 ERA in 25.3 innings. His 1.30 WHIP is where the caution comes in with him. He is succeeding despite allowing tons of hits as he has avoided walks and homers allowing just one each during the stretch of quality work. The Twins aren’t quite the cupcake you might assume they are, though they aren’t world beaters either with a 702 OPS against righties (good for 20th in baseball). He is a nice low-dollar option who could pay off with a solid outing and allow you to splurge on offense.

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (v. LAD) – He’s just not himself right now and the biggest change has been the severe dip in strikeout rate. He is down to 16% after spending his career in the 24-26% range and it’s not too surprising that his worst ERA and WHIP have followed the drop in strikeouts. If the Dodgers weren’t the second-worst team in baseball against righties by OPS (650) then Gallardo wouldn’t have even made the “Caution” list. There is still massive upside here, but he has shown the downside risk several times this year. Usually his strikeouts would paper over some mistakes, but those haven’t been present just yet.

Jason Marquis, SD (v. StL) – Marquis has been on a nice run lately with a 2.45 ERA in 25.7 innings over his last four starts, but his 1:1 K/BB ratio during that same stretch has me concerned and skeptical that the success can continue. He has no discernible home/road split and he’s actually been a bit worse in Petco Park leaving little confidence in him against a lineup as deep as the one St. Louis trots out there.

Kevin Correia, MIN (at ATL) – Correia has an impressive 3.35 ERA this year because he walks almost nobody (3.7% BB rate) and his 1.0 HR/9 is actually an improvement from his normal rates (1.2, 1.4, 1.1 the last three years). However, your K/9 should never be near your ERA and his 3.66 K/9 is just terrible. You don’t have to strike out a batter per inning to succeed, but his lack of overpowering stuff means a lot of balls are put into play and that usually comes back to bite in the form of a mid-4.00s ERA. In fact, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all in the 4.17 to 4.65 range just as they have been the last three years. That’s who he is and he should be judged as such.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

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PARK FACTORS: May 20th, 2013

PITCHER PARK PARK-R PARK-HR PARK-LHB PARK-RHB
Sabathia Camden Yards 1.083 1.127 1.087 0.992
Garcia Camden Yards 1.083 1.127 1.087 0.992
Correia Turner Field 0.94 1.064 0.955 0.934
Teheran Turner Field 0.94 1.064 0.955 0.934
Hamels Marlins Park 0.908 0.886 1.007 0.853
Sanabia Marlins Park 0.908 0.886 1.007 0.853
Cueto Citi Field 0.771 0.973 0.909 0.951
Marcum Citi Field 0.771 0.973 0.909 0.951
Colon Rangers Ballpark 0.959 1.265 1.043 0.986
Lindblom Rangers Ballpark 0.959 1.265 1.043 0.986
Kershaw Miller Park 1.286 1.926 1.104 1.121
Gallardo Miller Park 1.286 1.926 1.104 1.121
Lester U.S. Cellular Field 0.962 0.987 0.902 0.871
Axelrod U.S. Cellular Field 0.962 0.987 0.902 0.871
Guthrie Minute Maid Park 1.071 1.508 1.082 1.104
Keuchel Minute Maid Park 1.071 1.508 1.082 1.104
Corbin Coors Field 1.106 0.985 0.929 1.081
Garland Coors Field 1.106 0.985 0.929 1.081
Miller Petco Park 0.913 0.978 1.081 0.885
Marquis Petco Park 0.913 0.978 1.081 0.885
Duke AT&T Park 0.788 0.652 0.964 0.945
Vogelsong AT&T Park 0.788 0.652 0.964 0.945

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 20th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.

Site FANDUEL DRAFTSTREET DAILYJOUST DRAFTDAY DRAFTKINGS FANTASYFEUD STARSTREET
Name Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top
Sabathia $8,600 87% $15,786 77% $253K 56% $15,300 80% $11,000 93% $105K 70% $34,300 85%
Garcia $4,800 48% $7,451 37% $196K 44% $5,800 30% $5,000 42% $61K 41% $16,400 40%
Correia $5,100 52% $7,142 35% $195K 44% $7,350 38% $6,900 58% $76K 51% $15,400 38%
Teheran $5,400 55% $10,661 52% $211K 47% $8,150 43% $6,300 53% $70K 47% $20,000 49%
Hamels $7,100 72% $16,165 79% $308K 69% $15,500 81% $11,000 93% $107K 72% $35,900 89%
Sanabia $4,300 43% $5,561 27% $151K 34% $4,800 25% $5,000 42% $35K 23% $15,500 38%
Cueto $7,200 73% $14,977 74% $337K 75% $14,300 75% $9,000 76% $116K 77% $27,900 69%
Marcum $6,000 61% $9,605 47% $175K 39% $6,500 34% $7,700 65% $45K 30% $24,800 61%
Colon $6,100 62% $7,003 34% $205K 46% $6,150 32% $7,000 59% $69K 46% $22,100 55%
Lindblom NA NA $10,252 50% $246K 55% $6,150 32% $5,000 42% $15K 10% NA NA
Kershaw $9,900 100% $20,372 100% $446K 100% $19,150 100% $11,800 100% $150K 100% $40,500 100%
Gallardo $7,200 73% $12,141 60% $269K 60% $12,050 63% $8,800 75% $94K 63% $27,900 69%
Lester $8,000 81% $16,587 81% $368K 82% $14,300 75% $8,900 75% $107K 72% $33,400 82%
Axelrod $4,700 47% $6,040 30% $207K 46% $8,100 42% $5,000 42% $51K 34% $17,300 43%
Guthrie $6,200 63% $11,244 55% $355K 79% $12,300 64% $8,700 74% $83K 56% $25,900 64%
Keuchel $4,200 42% $7,890 39% $151K 34% $6,100 32% $5,000 42% $48K 32% $16,000 40%
Corbin $7,300 74% $13,128 64% $370K 83% $11,800 62% $7,800 66% $100K 67% $28,700 71%
Garland $5,900 60% $7,001 34% $185K 41% $6,850 36% $5,000 42% $53K 36% $16,300 40%
Miller $7,700 78% $18,713 92% $448K 100% $16,450 86% $8,000 68% $103K 69% $35,400 87%
Marquis $5,200 53% $9,508 47% $289K 65% $9,700 51% $6,900 58% $76K 51% $24,000 59%
Duke $3,800 38% $10,432 51% $151K 34% $6,750 35% $5,000 42% $15K 10% $16,300 40%
Vogelsong $5,400 55% $7,134 35% $151K 34% $9,400 49% $8,700 74% $58K 39% $23,000 57%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.