Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 22nd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-22 18:45:31

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 22nd, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

James Shields, KC (at HOU) – Is any ace more overlooked than Shields? His 7.3 innings per outing is tops in the American League and just behind Jordan Zimmermann for the overall lead. Zimm has an extra two-thirds of an inning in his nine starts to slightly edge Shields (66.7 to 66). His departure from Tampa Bay hasn’t hurt him in the least. He’s actually sporting a career-best 24.3% strikeout rate while improving his walk rate from 2012’s 6.1% to 5.9% so far in 2013.

The Astros are terrible at home against righties with a league-worst .210 AVG and AL-worst 620 OPS (only Miami is worse). Their 28.6% strikeout rate against righties at home is nearly four full percentage points worse than the 24.8% of both Atlanta and Cleveland. There are some flashier names available today, but Shields is the clear #1 choice.

Cliff Lee, PHI (at MIA) – This is straightforward: stud pitcher in a remarkably friendly venue against a terrible offense. How much analysis do you really need? Miami’s 512 OPS at home against lefties is baseball’s second-worst mark just ahead of Washington’s vomit-inducing 458.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at PIT) – Samardzija bounced back from a rough outing in Washington to shut down the Rockies for eight strong innings during which he allowed just two runs on five hits and two walks while fanning seven. He now heads back to PNC Park, the site of his season debut where he threw eight scoreless allowing just two hits and one walk while also striking out nine. The Pirates have done nothing the splitter this year – Samardzija’s best pitch – though they haven’t faced it often and some of their trouble against it is courtesy of that first start on April 1st. It will no doubt be on display again tonight.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at BAL) – He doesn’t qualify for Shields’ “Most Underrated Ace” title because he hasn’t been an ace nearly as long, but he is one of the most underrated arms in the game. The 38-year old righty already has a shutout against these Orioles under his belt this year and he’s yet to allow more than three runs in any of his outings. Kuroda’s swinging strike percentage is back up to 10.1% this year after dipping to 9.6% a year ago and while it hasn’t fostered more strikeouts, his 17% rate is passable considering how much weak contact he induces both on the ground (51% groundball rate) and in the air (10% infield flyball rate). There are some better options available from a matchup standpoint, but there aren’t many better pitchers going today.

Clay Buchholz, BOS (at CWS) – Since being accused of cheating, Buchholz had a 3.43 ERA in three starts with a 1.19 WHIP while striking out 22 in 21 innings (26% rate as he has faced 86 batters). The White Sox are a modest offense, too, giving him a chance to stay hot. They’ve improved a bit in May posting the 19th-best OPS against righties at an even 700, but they are striking out 20% of the time as well. Their hitter-friendly home ballpark hasn’t helped them much as they sit 25th against righties with a 679 OPS at US Cellular.

Justin Verlander, DET (at CLE) – I was cautious with Max Scherzer last night and he stepped up big time. I have no doubt that Verlander can do the same, especially on the heels of his disastrous outing in Texas, but again I’m playing it cautiously by ranking low in the “Cream of the Crop” list. Taming this Indians lineup on back-to-back nights is no easy feat and they did get to him a bit just 11 days ago as he lasted just five innings giving four (three earned) on six hits and five walks in 110 pitches.
Cleveland crushes righty fastballs to the tune of an 891 OPS, including a 921 at home. That is JV’s bread-and-butter and sets up his amazing secondary stuff. If he can avoid getting beat on his heater, he will roll as the Indians hit just a combined .189 against the secondary pitches JV has: curveball, slider, and changeup. They struggle most against the slider with a .129 AVG and 328 OPS – both last in baseball.

BEST THE REST:

Kevin Slowey, MIA (v. PHI) – Slowey looks to get back on track after a pair of duds that took his ERA from 1.81 to 3.44 in just 7.7 innings of work. The Phillies offense is the perfect remedy for a struggling pitcher especially on the road where they have a meager 651 OPS – 26th in baseball. His slider will be key as the Phillies hit just .197 off the pitch from righties and he allows a .143 average with his. The venue definitely provides a cushion that makes it easier to hop back on the Slowey bandwagon in hopes that he turns things around. If you want to load up on offense and save some money with a high-risk/high-reward arm, Slowey is a great option.

Francisco Liriano, PIT (v. CHC) – Raise your hand if you’ve been burned by Liriano in your fantasy career. I trust just about everyone’s hand is raised (which is weird since you’re at work or in your house by yourself; put your hand down) which makes everyone nervous about going back to that well even after two sharp outings to start his 2013 season.

He hasn’t hit the six-inning mark yet, but he has 16 strikeouts in his 11 innings of work while allowing just 12 hits and two runs. The five walks aren’t a shock, but they less of a problem if he’s missing tons of bats and keeping his hits allowed down. The Cubs are hitting just .190 against lefty sliders and Liriano is dominating batters with a .125 AVG against his slider with 10 of his 16 strikeouts on the pitch.

USE CAUTION:

C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. SEA) – One thing this Seattle offense can do is hit against southpaws a bit. Their .430 SLG against them is fifth in baseball and they are tops against lefty fastballs with a .531 SLG and 905 OPS. Wilson is allowing an 807 OPS on his heater. This matchup could be problematic for him. He escaped his last time out against the Mariners on April 26th allowing three runs in 5.1 innings on seven hits and two walks. He did strike out nine and get credited with a win, though.

Hector Santiago, CWS (v. BOS) – He’s been good in two starts and poor in two with all four coming on the road. He has a 24% strikeout rate in his four starts with six or more in three of them, but he hasn’t gone very deep topping 5.7 innings just once. The Red Sox are a middle-of-the-pack club against lefties so it’s not a terrifying matchup, but I think there are better options.

Brandon Maurer, SEA (at LAA) – The Angels are hitting better of late so it will be tough for Maurer to pull another 6.3 shutout innings against them as he did back on April 25th. He’s been solid since melting down in his first two starts with a 3.71 ERA in the subsequent six outings. The thing is despite the improvements, his arsenal outside of his slider is still getting knocked the yard with the fastball, changeup, and curveball all yielding at least an 833 OPS in those six starts. His slider needs to be working early and often if he expects to thwart the Angels again.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE* (v. DET) – Do you really want to bet on him shutting down the Tigers twice in 11 days? Be my guest, but please play me in a H2H if so. * Jason Hammel
• Jordan Lyles
• Burch Smith
• Tyler Lyons

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PARK FACTORS: May 22nd, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 22nd, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.