Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 27th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | MIA | WAS | 61.2 | 3.21 | 3.86 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 14.5% | 6.1% | 0.58 | 2.29 |
| Treinen | WAS | MIA | 17.1 | 1.56 | 3.73 | 1.70 | 16.1% | 8.6% | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | PHI | 53 | 3.91 | 3.81 | 1.15 | 40.0% | 20.2% | 9.6% | 1.02 | 2.00 |
| Hamels | PHI | COL | 37.2 | 4.30 | 3.35 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 24.8% | 8.1% | 0.72 | 1.21 |
| Cobb | TBR | TOR | 25.2 | 1.40 | 3.60 | 0.87 | 75.0% | 20.6% | 7.2% | 0.35 | 1.52 |
| Buehrle | TOR | TBR | 66.2 | 2.16 | 4.31 | 1.22 | 80.0% | 14.7% | 6.6% | 0.27 | 1.37 |
| Lester | BOS | ATL | 67 | 3.36 | 2.89 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 27.8% | 6.6% | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| Harang | ATL | BOS | 59.2 | 3.32 | 3.20 | 1.23 | 80.0% | 25.9% | 7.3% | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| Volquez | PIT | NYM | 55.2 | 4.37 | 4.29 | 1.14 | 44.4% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.62 | 1.51 |
| Niese | NYM | PIT | 56.2 | 2.70 | 3.78 | 1.17 | 18.6% | 6.5% | 0.64 | 1.46 | |
| Chen | BAL | MIL | 53 | 4.08 | 3.94 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 14.9% | 4.4% | 0.68 | 1.56 |
| Garza | MIL | BAL | 60.1 | 4.92 | 4.26 | 1.35 | 20.0% | 17.9% | 8.4% | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Masterson | CLE | CWS | 64.1 | 5.32 | 3.92 | 1.53 | 45.5% | 18.9% | 10.7% | 0.70 | 2.71 |
| Sale | CWS | CLE | 33.1 | 1.89 | 2.37 | 0.73 | 60.0% | 31.7% | 5.7% | 0.27 | 1.26 |
| McHugh | HOU | KCR | 38 | 3.32 | 3.14 | 1.03 | 66.7% | 27.0% | 7.9% | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Guthrie | KCR | HOU | 65.2 | 4.39 | 4.83 | 1.20 | 40.0% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1.64 | 1.04 |
| Darvish | TEX | MIN | 61.1 | 2.35 | 3.00 | 1.11 | 66.7% | 28.4% | 7.6% | 0.44 | 0.79 |
| Hughes | MIN | TEX | 54.1 | 3.15 | 3.44 | 1.20 | 55.6% | 20.9% | 2.7% | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| Phelps | NYY | STL | 34 | 3.18 | 3.81 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 22.0% | 10.0% | 0.79 | 1.11 |
| Lynn | STL | NYY | 60 | 3.60 | 3.52 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 22.6% | 7.7% | 0.60 | 1.35 |
| Stults | SDP | ARI | 50.2 | 4.97 | 4.51 | 1.55 | 30.0% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 1.60 | 1.23 |
| Miley | ARI | SDP | 68.2 | 4.85 | 4.11 | 1.30 | 27.3% | 18.1% | 8.7% | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Scherzer | DET | OAK | 66 | 2.59 | 2.94 | 1.14 | 70.0% | 29.3% | 8.3% | 0.82 | 0.96 |
| Gray | OAK | DET | 68 | 1.99 | 3.53 | 1.09 | 70.0% | 20.0% | 8.4% | 0.53 | 2.39 |
| Simon | CIN | LAD | 58.1 | 2.31 | 4.19 | 1.02 | 77.8% | 15.5% | 6.0% | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| Greinke | LAD | CIN | 58.1 | 2.01 | 2.77 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 27.4% | 5.9% | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| Weaver | LAA | SEA | 66.1 | 2.85 | 4.10 | 1.00 | 60.0% | 19.2% | 7.3% | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| Elias | SEA | LAA | 58.2 | 3.53 | 3.92 | 1.34 | 20.0% | 21.1% | 10.2% | 1.07 | 1.60 |
| Arrieta | CHC | SFG | 19.1 | 2.33 | 3.60 | 1.57 | 25.0% | 23.5% | 10.6% | 0.47 | 2.07 |
| Hudson | SFG | CHC | 63.1 | 2.13 | 3.02 | 0.89 | 77.8% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 0.57 | 2.62 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either. I don’t see an edge either way so while I wouldn’t crush someone for using the guy, I won’t be rostering him.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Zack Greinke LAD (v. CIN) – The Mets broke his streak of 22 starts with 2 or fewer runs allowed, but he still only allowed 1 ER in five innings on Thursday so the outing wasn’t a total dud. It was a bummer since it was against the meager Mets, but I’m not worried about him at all going forward. The Reds weren’t terribly frightening with Votto so they become a team to actually pick on without him. They still have some capable bats, especially with Jay Bruce back, but as a unit they aren’t fearsome.
Yu Darvish TEX (at MIN) – Minnesota’s 11th ranking in wOBA against righties is built on their huge April when they finished atop the league. They’ve been 26th in May with several of their surprise studs coming back to earth including Chris Colabello getting dumped to Triple-A. Darvish has allowed more than 3 ER just once all year and he has 38 strikeouts in 30 May IP so far.
Jered Weaver LAA (at SEA) – Just when everyone tries to start burying Weaver… He had a 5.79 ERA through three starts allowing 3, 5, and 4 ER in those outings, but since then he’s reeled off seven excellent starts – six of them gems – yielding a 1.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 2.8 K/BB ratio in 47.7 IP. I still don’t see him as the bona fide ace he once was because the margin for error is thinner with the diminished velocity, but he is still very good.
Tim Hudson SF (v. CHC) – Hudson had put seven on in three innings, but managed to give up just one run before a rain delay ended his day early. Was it lingering pain from the hip or just being in Coors? I’m willing to bet more on the latter since we haven’t heard anything regarding the former and he’s making his next start on time. The Cubs will be much easier than the Rockies in Coors so if he sputters here, we might have to look deeper into that hip still being an issue.
Phil Hughes MIN (v. TEX) – I love how great Hughes has been lately with exactly one walk in his last six starts en route to a 1.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 30/1 K/BB ratio in 39.3 IP which includes two starts against Detroit as well as one against both Baltimore and Boston. I’m still willing to roll with him even against a Texas offense that has looked better of late (even though they’re actually losing firepower).
Mark Buehrle TOR (v. TB) – If you’ve been following this column for the season, you know I’m not too high on Buehrle’s hot start. I think he’s a plenty capable starter, but I just don’t see him transforming into a low-2.00s pitcher at 35 years old and his skills don’t come anywhere near supporting the figure, yet I’m willing to bet that he can extend this excellent run at least another start as he gets a Rays team that just hasn’t been doing much offensively this month, or even year. They’ve especially struggled with southpaws, too.
SOLID BUYS:
Chris Sale CWS (v. CLE) / Max Scherzer DET (at OAK) / Sonny Gray OAK (v. DET) – All three of these superstuds are facing top four offenses in the American League and while they’ve obviously all proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can handle any team, it’s not the best deployment of resources to pay top dollar for them when they’re facing upper level offenses. The Indians are second (.335), the A’s are third (.332), and the Tigers are fourth (.327) in wOBA against righties and they all trail the Jays at .337 on the season. Additionally, Scherzer and Gray are facing each other while Sale gets Masterson, so Sale would be my first choice if I do dip into this pool.
Cole Hamels PHI (v. COL) – Hamels is in a similar boat to the three aces above in that he’s facing a very tough matchup making it tough to pay the premium for him. He hasn’t been as ace-worthy from the start this year, but he’s not cheap and he’s surging lately so his price is on the rise. He’s been brilliant over his last three going seven strong in each of them with a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4.3 K/BB ratio in 21 IP helping erase the damage from the two duds he had earlier on in his second and third starts of the season.
Jon Lester BOS (at ATL) – This will be an interesting challenge for Lester as he looks to rebound from his worst start of the season. He had a 6.3 IP/7 ER dud against the Jays and now he gets a Braves offense that has done its best work against southpaws. They are first in wOBA against southpaws at .361 despite a 24.9% strikeout rate. They’ve done it with power as they have a .500 SLG and .219 ISO. I’m still willing to bet on Lester because of the massive strikeout rate for both him and this Braves team against southpaws. It’s not great spot for him given his cost, but I’m not automatically running away from it, either.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Wade Miley ARI (v. SD) – At this point, if you’re breathing then you’re being considered against the Padres. Of course don’t tell that to “Edwin Jackson(player-profile)”:/players/Edwin_Jackson-10662… cool life. Homers have been a big issue for Miley this year with a 1.3 HR/9 – something that shouldn’t be an issue against the punchless Padres. He’s better than his 4.85 ERA and I’ll definitely take a look at him as a good money-saving option on Tuesday night.
Jon Niese NYM (v. PIT) – Niese’s strikeout rate is up to 18.6% this year which is far from dominant, but definitely makes him more playable than with last year’s 16.9% mark. He’s often underrated, both in season-long leagues and the daily game.
David Phelps NYY (at STL) – Phelps has held his own in the rotation since joining to start May with a 2.82 ERA in 22.3 IP. He’s ramped up enough now to go deep into games with 100+ pitches in each of his last starts and a season-high seven innings his last time out. Most outlets have him priced very cheaply, especially when you consider what he’s done in May. The Cards have been better in May, but they aren’t the force that we saw them be last year.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at WAS) – Alvarez has a sharp home-road split, but the road numbers are inflated by a shaky West Coast trip that saw him allow 9 ER in 10 IP at SD and SF. He had a 3.05 ERA in three road starts in April spanning 17.7 IP. Meanwhile, the Nats have been brutal at the dish this month and they look like a team you can pick on right now. Despite a solid overall line, Alvarez is still cheap at multiple outlets so I’d consider going against his home-road split and giving him a shot in the nation’s capital.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Alex Cobb TB (at TOR) – I’m not stacking against him at all because he has the talent to slow this Blue Jays offense, but I’m definitely recommending that you don’t use him this time around. They’ve just been too hot, especially at home.
Collin McHugh HOU (at KC) – I’m starting to buy into McHugh’s strikeouts, but he’s facing the toughest team in the league to strikeout in the Royals. Their 14.8% K rate is easily the league’s best rate with the Tigers in second at 16.7%.
Roenis Elias SEA (v. LAA) – He’s really just been OK since that big start in Yankee Stadium on May 1st with a 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9, and 2.3 K/BB ratio in 23.7 IP.
Matt Garza MIL (v. BAL) – Don’t let the name value fool you, he’s been brutal of late allowing at least 3 ER in each of his last five en route to a 5.93 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 1.5 K/BB ratio.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at LAD) – The skills don’t support a 2.31 ERA at all. His .216 BABIP and 90.7% LOB rate just can’t hold. Those are reliever figures and they really don’t go with a 1.2 HR/9, either. It’s been a great ride, but I’m not taking the risk of riding it anymore.
- Blake Treinen WAS (v. MIA)
- Justin Masterson CLE (at CWS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | 0.291 | 3.50 | 0.356 | 2.84 | 0.233 | 0.666 | 1.360 | 3.21 | 0.084 | 88.60 | 65.0% |
| Treinen | 0.365 | 1.50 | 0.286 | 1.59 | 0.257 | 0.752 | 1.670 | 1.56 | 0.074 | 59.40 | 64.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.235 | 4.05 | 0.315 | 3.92 | 0.268 | 0.769 | 1.150 | 3.91 | 0.106 | 89.70 | 60.4% |
| Hamels | 0.404 | 6.75 | 0.317 | 3.86 | 0.314 | 0.849 | 1.410 | 4.30 | 0.168 | 100.67 | 63.9% |
| Cobb | 0.201 | 1.20 | 0.256 | 1.74 | 0.259 | 0.774 | 0.860 | 1.40 | 0.134 | 96.00 | 65.1% |
| Buehrle | 0.301 | 2.45 | 0.290 | 2.06 | 0.238 | 0.662 | 1.220 | 2.16 | 0.081 | 99.60 | 62.8% |
| Lester | 0.293 | 2.25 | 0.297 | 3.73 | 0.283 | 0.842 | 1.180 | 3.36 | 0.213 | 109.90 | 64.2% |
| Harang | 0.322 | 3.27 | 0.276 | 3.50 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 1.220 | 3.32 | 0.186 | 101.50 | 65.4% |
| Volquez | 0.356 | 4.87 | 0.290 | 4.15 | 0.220 | 0.626 | 1.130 | 4.37 | 0.075 | 81.20 | 65.8% |
| Niese | 0.189 | 1.56 | 0.313 | 3.26 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 1.160 | 2.70 | 0.121 | 97.67 | 63.3% |
| Chen | 0.387 | 5.68 | 0.314 | 3.60 | 0.231 | 0.683 | 1.420 | 4.08 | 0.105 | 98.89 | 64.9% |
| Garza | 0.344 | 5.96 | 0.278 | 4.15 | 0.269 | 0.713 | 1.340 | 4.92 | 0.095 | 94.90 | 66.0% |
| Masterson | 0.398 | 5.09 | 0.287 | 5.65 | 0.266 | 0.745 | 1.520 | 5.32 | 0.083 | 94.09 | 62.0% |
| Sale | 0.055 | 1.17 | 0.227 | 2.13 | 0.227 | 0.638 | 0.720 | 1.89 | 0.26 | 107.40 | 63.3% |
| McHugh | 0.226 | 2.45 | 0.309 | 4.60 | 0.256 | 0.666 | 1.030 | 3.32 | 0.191 | 98.83 | 65.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.362 | 4.82 | 0.273 | 3.95 | 0.215 | 0.655 | 1.190 | 4.39 | 0.055 | 103.00 | 64.9% |
| Darvish | 0.278 | 2.95 | 0.254 | 1.48 | 0.250 | 0.720 | 1.110 | 2.35 | 0.208 | 106.67 | 62.7% |
| Hughes | 0.237 | 2.81 | 0.347 | 3.45 | 0.245 | 0.662 | 1.200 | 3.15 | 0.182 | 95.56 | 72.8% |
| Phelps | 0.261 | 1.93 | 0.361 | 3.60 | 0.263 | 0.697 | 1.380 | 3.18 | 0.12 | 46.38 | 61.9% |
| Lynn | 0.346 | 4.76 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.248 | 0.705 | 1.320 | 3.60 | 0.149 | 103.10 | 63.9% |
| Stults | 0.332 | 4.50 | 0.386 | 5.15 | 0.255 | 0.697 | 1.540 | 4.97 | 0.075 | 81.10 | 65.8% |
| Miley | 0.323 | 6.28 | 0.341 | 4.50 | 0.231 | 0.674 | 1.300 | 4.85 | 0.094 | 98.09 | 64.2% |
| Scherzer | 0.309 | 3.60 | 0.266 | 1.48 | 0.255 | 0.759 | 1.140 | 2.59 | 0.211 | 109.20 | 64.9% |
| Gray | 0.284 | 2.50 | 0.223 | 1.27 | 0.275 | 0.761 | 1.090 | 1.99 | 0.116 | 100.80 | 61.0% |
| Simon | 0.313 | 3.21 | 0.255 | 1.52 | 0.275 | 0.779 | 1.010 | 2.31 | 0.094 | 92.22 | 65.7% |
| Greinke | 0.291 | 1.86 | 0.299 | 2.17 | 0.245 | 0.687 | 1.130 | 2.01 | 0.215 | 98.70 | 65.3% |
| Weaver | 0.274 | 2.52 | 0.253 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.990 | 2.85 | 0.119 | 97.10 | 61.5% |
| Elias | 0.289 | 3.07 | 0.330 | 3.89 | 0.268 | 0.768 | 1.330 | 3.53 | 0.11 | 97.80 | 62.3% |
| Arrieta | 0.323 | 1.08 | 0.308 | 3.27 | 0.242 | 0.711 | 1.550 | 2.33 | 0.129 | 84.75 | 62.2% |
| Hudson | 0.289 | 1.67 | 0.230 | 2.64 | 0.227 | 0.638 | 0.88 | 2.13 | 0.135 | 91.00 | 68.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window