Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 4, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here
Performance and Talent Statistics: May 4th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | IMP% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scherzer | DET | 24 | 4.13 | 2.20 | 1.25 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 36.4% | 7.1% | 0.38 | 1.37 |
| Harrell | HOU | 28.2 | 4.08 | 4.70 | 1.57 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 1.57 | 2.14 |
| Fernandez | MIA | 20 | 4.50 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 9.4% | 0.45 | 1.88 |
| Hamels | PHI | 37.2 | 4.78 | 4.24 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| Price | TBR | 38 | 5.21 | 3.31 | 1.37 | 33.0% | 33.0% | 22.2% | 5.7% | 1.42 | 1.75 |
| Garland | COL | 31 | 4.65 | 4.43 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 1.16 | 2.30 |
| Corbin | ARI | 33 | 1.91 | 3.75 | 1.06 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 5.4% | 0.27 | 1.35 |
| Marquis | SDP | 30 | 4.20 | 4.90 | 1.33 | 20.0% | 60.0% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| Axelrod | CWS | 27.1 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 1.24 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 1.32 | 0.85 |
| Guthrie | KCR | 32.1 | 3.06 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 17.9% | 7.5% | 1.67 | 1.52 |
| Magill | LAD | 6.2 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 0.90 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 25.9% | 7.4% | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | 30.1 | 6.23 | 4.06 | 1.55 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 19.3% | 7.4% | 2.08 | 1.11 |
| Lackey | BOS | 10.1 | 2.61 | 2.83 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 6.8% | 0.87 | 2.14 |
| Ogando | TEX | 32 | 3.38 | 4.08 | 1.25 | 33.0% | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.1% | 1.13 | 1.28 |
Today we have an abbreviated version of the SP rundown, but Saturday editions going forward will be like the ones you saw this week with the tiered breakdown and analysis of the day’s slate. This version will feature a 1-14 ranking with a tidbit or two on each arm.
CREAM OF THE CROP
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. MIA) – Hamels has a 2.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 innings since his back-to-back implosions to open the season. He’s allowed just one home run in that time, too, after allowing four in 10.7 IP in those first two.
Max Scherzer, DET (at HOU) – The second-best strikeout rate in baseball against the game’s top strikeout team? This can’t end well for Houston. By the way, they face the #1 guy next week in Yu Darvish.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. CWS) – Since becoming a Royal last summer Guthrie has taken a significant ownership stake in the White Sox with a 0.50 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 21% K, and 2% BB rate in 35.7 innings. That includes in six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts to open his season back on April 4th.
BEST OF THE REST
Patrick Corbin, ARI (at SD) – Corbin goes for a seventh straight gem tonight in one of the best parks for pitchers. The Padres are 20th in OPS against lefties, but they pound lefty curveballs at 1006 OPS clip – tops in the NL and second overall – so Corbin will have to be careful. That his premier strikeout pitch.
David Price, TB (at COL) – We saw Matt Moore falter a bit in Coors last night, and Price hasn’t been his Cy Young-self so he’s further down the list than normal. His price is probably too high to take the risk, so you’re better off looking elsewhere in most cases.
Alexi Ogando, TEX (v. BOS) – The Red Sox have only lost two in a row twice so Ogando has his work cut out for him, but he’s been excellent this year thanks in large part to the addition of a reliable changeup. Boston is fanning a league-high 41% of the time on sliders – Ogando’s best pitch.
John Lackey, BOS (at TEX) – He’s off to a great start, but we’ve only seen two starts and one was cut short by injury. I can envision him becoming someone we look to a lot this season, but today isn’t a great spot so don’t go crazy unless you’re looking for a low-cost upside option.
Clayton Richard, SD (v. ARI) – He’s usually an easy home-away guy who becomes a stud in Petco Park, but he was smashed for six in just an inning and two-thirds during his last home start. That said, he still has a 297 inning track record of 2.94 ERA in Petco and he’s facing the second-worst team in baseball against lefties as the Diamondbacks have posted a 603 OPS against them. I’d be willing to roll the dice on his track record, especially at a depressed price.
USE CAUTION
Lucas Harrell, HOU (v. DET) – There is some talent here, but he allows too many hits to be trusted against a lineup like the Tigers. Sure, he could go six and a third allowing one run like he did in Yankee Stadium, but it’s just as likely that he allows eight in four and a third as he did against Oakland on April 7th. Too risky.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (at PHI) – The promising rookie just isn’t going deep enough to be a great play. He is still striking out about a batter per innings, but he’s gone more than five innings just once (and it was six) and he’s winless thanks to a lame supporting cast.
Dylan Axelrod, CWS (at KC) – He allows too many homers and too many walks while not missing enough bats. Working in his favor is that the Royals have an AL-worst 411 OPS against righty sliders which is his most reliable pitch start-to-start (637 OPS, throws it 39% of the time).
Matt Magill, LAD (at SF) – The unheralded rookie was sharp in his MLB debut and heads out to the best pitcher’s park in the game. Rookies are tough because they really live at both ends of the spectrum in a one game sample: the team hasn’t seen them before and they are caught off guard or he’s an inexperienced rookie overmatched by big league hitters and he’s trashed for five in the first inning. He makes a decent upside play on the cheap.
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (v. LAD) – He hasn’t looked good yet this year whether home or away and he’s allowed seven homers in his last four outings. Avoid.
Jon Garland, COL (v. TB) – No. Just no. Now because I’ve dismissed him, he’ll roll the Rays, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take.