Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 6th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deduno | MIN | CLE | 14.2 | 1.84 | 3.58 | 1.41 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.00 | 1.82 | |
| Tomlin | CLE | MIN | |||||||||
| Hudson | SFG | PIT | 45.2 | 2.17 | 2.88 | 0.75 | 83.3% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 0.59 | 2.26 |
| Morton | PIT | SFG | 31 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 8.8% | 0.87 | 2.09 |
| Kershaw | LAD | WAS | 6.2 | 1.35 | 2.03 | 0.97 | 100.0% | 25.9% | 3.7% | 0.00 | 3.25 |
| Fister | WAS | LAD | |||||||||
| Hutchison | TOR | PHI | 33 | 3.82 | 3.08 | 1.27 | 33.3% | 27.3% | 7.2% | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Hamels | PHI | TOR | 10.2 | 6.75 | 4.88 | 1.96 | 50.0% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | DET | 32 | 5.63 | 4.05 | 1.56 | 16.7% | 18.6% | 6.9% | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Ray | DET | HOU | |||||||||
| Bailey | CIN | BOS | 26.1 | 6.15 | 3.21 | 1.80 | 16.7% | 23.8% | 6.6% | 2.39 | 1.67 |
| Doubront | BOS | CIN | 24 | 6.00 | 4.85 | 1.71 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Lyons | STL | ATL | 14 | 4.50 | 3.48 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 8.5% | 0.64 | 1.36 |
| Floyd | ATL | STL | |||||||||
| Tillman | BAL | TBR | 32 | 3.38 | 3.99 | 1.25 | 33.3% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Archer | TBR | BAL | 30.2 | 4.11 | 3.24 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.29 | 1.92 |
| Colon | NYM | MIA | 32 | 4.50 | 3.56 | 1.28 | 33.3% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 1.69 | 0.93 |
| Alvarez | MIA | NYM | 29.2 | 2.73 | 3.95 | 1.44 | 33.3% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 0.30 | 2.79 |
| Noesi | CWS | CHC | 11.1 | 11.12 | 3.99 | 1.98 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 0.79 | 0.88 | |
| Jackson | CHC | CWS | 34.1 | 5.24 | 4.67 | 1.58 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 0.26 | 1.38 | |
| Collmenter | ARI | MIL | 31 | 3.77 | 4.25 | 1.19 | 25.0% | 16.8% | 7.2% | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Estrada | MIL | ARI | 31.1 | 2.87 | 3.40 | 0.96 | 33.3% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 1.44 | 0.71 |
| Ross | TEX | COL | 32.2 | 3.86 | 3.36 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 18.7% | 6.0% | 0.83 | 2.46 |
| Nicasio | COL | TEX | 27.1 | 5.27 | 3.63 | 1.48 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 5.8% | 1.65 | 1.39 |
| Kuroda | NYY | LAA | 29 | 5.28 | 4.25 | 1.38 | 33.3% | 14.4% | 4.8% | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| Wilson | LAA | NYY | 39.2 | 3.18 | 3.21 | 1.12 | 66.7% | 26.1% | 8.3% | 0.91 | 1.50 |
| Elias | SEA | OAK | 28 | 3.54 | 4.57 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 0.64 | 1.70 |
| Chavez | OAK | SEA | 38 | 1.89 | 2.74 | 0.95 | 83.3% | 27.3% | 5.3% | 0.71 | 1.53 |
| Guthrie | KCR | SDP | 32 | 4.22 | 4.72 | 1.28 | 33.3% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Erlin | SDP | KCR | 29.1 | 5.83 | 3.88 | 1.41 | 20.0% | 19.5% | 5.5% | 0.61 | 0.74 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Tim Hudson, SF (at PIT) – Hudson brings an obscene 15.5 K/BB ratio into this matchup having walked just two batters (both in his Cleveland outing) all season. The Pirates aren’t a particularly threatening offense and Hudson has only allowed more than two earned runs to the Rockies (4 ER) this year. What he lacks in strikeouts, he makes up for by going seven or more innings in every outing.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at WAS) – I doubt we’ll get much of a discount on the Dodgers ace, but any savings could be enticing enough to roll with him upon his return. The Nats present a difficult matchup with their league-leading .402 wOBA against lefties, but of course Kershaw is matchup-proof. I’ll be interested to see how many folks utilize him.
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. TOR) – Another big lefty whose price is definitely trending lower than it will be when he gets going, Hamels has a tough outing against Toronto. He looked great against the Dodgers, but the Mets knocked him around – per usual. This probably isn’t the best spot for him, but if you like getting value on aces, now is the time to pounce before Hamels gets clicking.
Homer Bailey, CIN (at BOS) – The 5.50 ERA really doesn’t dissuade me from using Bailey. He’s discounted after a horrid April and the core skills are intact so I’m looking to use him regularly as his results round into form. Boston isn’t easy, but it’s not Colorado, either.
Jesse Chavez, OAK (v. SEA) – I wasn’t ready to write Chavez off after struggling in Houston and he rewarded that confidence with a killer 7 IP/0 ER one-hit gem in Texas. The Mariners have been a team to pick on lately as their offense is ice cold and seems to have infected Robinson Cano with his 729 OPS. Chavez will be a popular pick on Tuesday, and justifiably so.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. NYY) – Wilson’s been great since his dud of a debut. One of his best starts came against these very Yankees as he went 6 IP/1 ER with five strikeouts. He’s got the lowest walk rate as a starter (8.3%) and highest strikeout (26.1%) rate of his career and he’s back up at 50% groundball rate after dipping to 44% a season ago.
Tyler Lyons, STL (at ATL) – The Braves are striking out a league-high 31.2% of the time against lefties (well ahead of the Cubs at 27.3%) and their .295 wOBA is 25th in the league. Lyons is a nice option who could have a huge day while also saving you some money.
Marco Estrada, MIL (v. ARI) – He hasn’t really fixed his one big issue: homers, but Estrada is off to a great start across the board. His homer troubles haven’t seriously damaged him so far this season because he’s toting a 1.07 WHIP and only two of his seven homers have had anyone on base. That home run tendency makes Estrada a risk at any point, but he misses bats, limits walks, and he’s usually good for at least six innings of work.
Drew Hutchison, TOR (at PHI) – He’s been a strikeout machine early in his return with a pair of 9 K efforts and 38 in his 33 innings overall. Philly’s lefty-heavy lineup won’t be easy for Hutchison, but they swing through a lot pitches so he should be able to log six or seven strikeouts even if he only gives a solid 6 IP/3 ER outing.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (v. NYM) – I really wish Alvarez would miss more bats, but he’s a fine low-budget option who can definitely earn his keep relative to his cost. The lack of strikeout potential will usually keep him from posting a huge score short of something like his shutout against the Mariners on April 19th.
Robbie Erlin, SD (v. KC) – Erlin was brutalized by the Nats, but otherwise he’s got a 4.13 ERA with a 4.4 K/BB ratio. The punchless Royals have been especially awful against lefties and going to Petco is unlikely to help that. Erlin has a 3.05 ERA and 4.6 K/BB ratio in 44.3 IP at home and best yet, he’ll come very cheaply.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at SD) – It takes a lot for me to come close to trusting Guthrie, but the Padres have a truly horrible offense and of course the setting is right for stifling runs.
Robbie Ray, DET (v. HOU) – The Tigers rookie makes his MLB debut with a remarkably soft landing against Houston. He’s more of a command-and-control, pitch-to-contact type, but the Astros could offer a few extra punchouts just with their heavy swing-and-miss tendencies.
Felix Doubront, BOS (v. CIN) – The Reds have struggled against lefties this year and they just lost Jay Bruce to the DL. While he doesn’t crush lefties, it’s a big bat they can ill-afford to lose. Doubront has three good and three bad outings. When he’s good, he can go 6-7 innings and miss a bunch of bats, but when he’s off, watch out.
Charlie Morton, PIT (v. SF) – I was expecting more from Morton this year, but so far it’s been kinda blah. His strikeout and groundball rates have both dipped and he’s continued his odd every-other-year trend with LOB rate struggles with a 66% rate. I like Morton for a solid outing against the Giants at home.
USE CAUTION:
Chris Tillman, BAL (at TB) – Tillman has a pair of strong 8 IP+ outings, but he’s failed to finish even six in any of his other six outings. His component numbers are strong, including a career-best strikeout rate of 21.7%.
Chris Archer, TB (v. BAL) – Archer’s been hit-and-miss so far this season and though he’s been markedly better at home, I’m not sure he’s worth the risk against Baltimore. They ripped him for 7 ER in 5 IP in Camden Yards on April 14th.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at LAA) – Kuroda has essentially the same solid K/BB ratio he had last year when he posted a 3.31 ERA in 201.3 IP. His obscene 59% LOB rate has bred a 5.14 ERA. He will get better, but it might not start until after he leaves the Angels, who trounced him for 6 ER in 4.7 IP back on April 25th.
Bartolo Colon, NYM (at MIA) – He’s either been great or awful with ER counts of 3, 0, 9, 3, 1, and 7 this season. The Marlins aren’t necessarily imposing, but they haven’t treated visitors too well with a .370 wOBA against righties. This could be another dud for Colon.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Robbie Ross, TEX (at COL)
Juan Nicasio, COL (v. TEX)
Brett Oberholtzer, HOU (at DET)
Hector Noesi, CWS (at CHC)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deduno | 0.243 | 0.695 | 0.317 | 2.86 | 0.236 | 60.8% | |||||
| Tomlin | 0.000 | 0.355 | 0.256 | 0.746 | |||||||
| Hudson | 0.289 | 3.96 | 0.270 | 3.06 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.218 | 2.83 | 0.192 | 94.83 | 69.4% |
| Morton | 0.366 | 4.92 | 0.272 | 2.57 | 0.225 | 0.679 | 0.284 | 4.68 | 0.252 | 95.80 | 65.8% |
| Kershaw | 0.216 | 1.57 | 0.239 | 1.90 | 0.313 | 0.887 | 0.263 | 1.48 | 0.192 | 102.00 | 71.6% |
| Fister | 0.305 | 4.05 | 0.329 | 3.20 | 0.271 | 0.774 | |||||
| Hutchison | 0.330 | 4.12 | 0.306 | 3.46 | 0.243 | 0.660 | 0.333 | 3.01 | 0.25 | 92.67 | 62.6% |
| Hamels | 0.323 | 5.29 | 0.310 | 3.37 | 0.252 | 0.729 | 0.400 | 3.60 | 0.326 | 96.00 | 57.3% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.310 | 3.38 | 0.316 | 3.82 | 0.299 | 0.843 | 0.353 | 4.19 | 0.301 | 91.50 | 64.5% |
| Ray | 0.249 | 0.651 | |||||||||
| Bailey | 0.353 | 4.20 | 0.271 | 3.51 | 0.247 | 0.711 | 0.416 | 5.41 | 0.345 | 97.20 | 63.8% |
| Doubront | 0.310 | 3.68 | 0.338 | 4.86 | 0.233 | 0.675 | 0.321 | 4.92 | 0.291 | 83.20 | 60.1% |
| Lyons | 0.277 | 5.19 | 0.324 | 4.56 | 0.264 | 0.775 | 0.289 | 3.35 | 0.226 | 99.00 | 66.2% |
| Floyd | 0.396 | 5.27 | 0.371 | 5.06 | 0.259 | 0.705 | |||||
| Tillman | 0.328 | 4.02 | 0.306 | 3.26 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.271 | 4.41 | 0.242 | 107.00 | 64.1% |
| Archer | 0.324 | 3.95 | 0.251 | 2.64 | 0.273 | 0.716 | 0.344 | 2.41 | 0.279 | 95.80 | 65.3% |
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.16 | 0.288 | 2.69 | 0.272 | 0.781 | 0.314 | 4.23 | 0.284 | 100.00 | 68.4% |
| Alvarez | 0.311 | 3.56 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.221 | 0.628 | 0.323 | 3.27 | 0.28 | 83.20 | 65.1% |
| Noesi | 0.404 | 7.91 | 0.451 | 8.53 | 0.224 | 0.631 | 0.419 | 3.48 | 0.358 | 217.00 | 64.1% |
| Jackson | 0.369 | 6.08 | 0.324 | 4.30 | 0.267 | 0.761 | 0.340 | 3.66 | 0.278 | 95.67 | 62.2% |
| Collmenter | 0.317 | 3.91 | 0.294 | 2.92 | 0.248 | 0.694 | 0.264 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 118.25 | 65.8% |
| Estrada | 0.271 | 3.11 | 0.311 | 4.26 | 0.249 | 0.674 | 0.241 | 4.09 | 0.214 | 100.00 | 63.8% |
| Ross | 0.373 | 3.18 | 0.289 | 3.39 | 0.317 | 0.863 | 0.333 | 3.90 | 0.279 | 92.33 | 64.6% |
| Nicasio | 0.347 | 5.91 | 0.359 | 4.53 | 0.243 | 0.660 | 0.337 | 4.63 | 0.295 | 94.80 | 64.8% |
| Kuroda | 0.329 | 4.12 | 0.276 | 2.91 | 0.256 | 0.746 | 0.309 | 4.30 | 0.286 | 94.00 | 61.5% |
| Wilson | 0.230 | 2.26 | 0.327 | 3.72 | 0.288 | 0.776 | 0.276 | 3.43 | 0.217 | 114.83 | 59.1% |
| Elias | 0.297 | 4.05 | 0.337 | 3.38 | 0.240 | 0.691 | 0.282 | 4.17 | 0.238 | 96.40 | 61.4% |
| Chavez | 0.288 | 3.35 | 0.242 | 2.86 | 0.226 | 0.656 | 0.255 | 2.63 | 0.197 | 95.67 | 67.9% |
| Guthrie | 0.390 | 4.63 | 0.281 | 3.48 | 0.212 | 0.576 | 0.272 | 5.13 | 0.264 | 103.60 | 65.6% |
| Erlin | 0.357 | 5.70 | 0.296 | 4.37 | 0.226 | 0.582 | 0.34 | 3.03 | 0.281 | 99.80 | 66.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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