Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 7th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-07 22:26:50

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Matt Harvey, NYM (v. CWS) – A lot of our cream of the crop doesn’t require a lot of second-level analysis to understand why they landed in this section. That starts with Harvey who has been virtually unhittable this year yielding an MLB-best 4.7 H/9 and getting to face the league’s worst batting average team in the White Sox who are at .225 for the year. Alex Rios is the only regular with an OPS over 530 against right-handed sliders. Yes, 530! I’m actually surprised that Harvey isn’t the most expensive Daily Joust arm today.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (at WAS) – For all the buzz they got as the league’s best team, the Nats aren’t hitting right now. They have a paltry 699 OPS against righties which is 20th in baseball. Sanchez should rely heavily on the fastball (as he normally does at 51%), but then shift some of his pitch mix to the curveball with regards to his secondary stuff as the Nats actually crush changeups and sliders from righties. Their 694 OPS against heaters is 29th in baseball so I expect tons of them tonight in several variations between four- and two-seamers.

Homer Bailey, CIN (v. ATL) – A lot of guys are having their best strikeout day against the Astros in the AL and the Braves in the NL. Bailey has a 10 K game back in mid-April when he threw eight shutout against the Phillies and he could push that figure again tonight. He needs to avoid his namesake as that is something that his bitten him in the past as evidenced by his career 1.1 HR/9. The Cards popped him for 3 HRs earlier this season en route to a 7 ER shellacking. The Braves have very few looks as a team against the splitter this year, but they’ve fanned nine of the 10 times they saw one so that could be the go-to secondary pitch for Bailey, though they are also missing on 39% of the sliders they are seeing and he has a 26% K rate with his so he will have options. He’s checking in at a great price given his upside at a few outlets especially if you don’t want to spend big on the obvious Harvey pick.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. DET) – Zimm’s pitch-to-contact approach with his fastball might not be the best gameplan against this potent offense. Of course, pitch-to-contact is a bit of a pejorative at times reserved for run of the mill arms, which Zimm mostly certainly is not. His strikeouts are way down on the year checking in at 16% after sitting at 19% a year ago and this is the exact team he could use some extra ones against. Zimmermann remains in the cream of the crop because he is simply an excellent pitcher and he can make even a great offense look foolish, but the investment needed to roster him just isn’t worth the risk on a day with better options available.

Lance Lynn, STL (at CHC) – The Cubs are hitting .152 off the slider and just .169 when you mash curveballs and sliders together. Those are Lynn’s go-to secondary pitches and he allows a meager 542 OPS off of them. The Cubs are a bit better than you might expect offensively sitting 17th overall in OPS against righties, but their 3.8 runs per game is eighth-worst. They’ll have their work cut for them tonight against Lynn.

BEST THE REST:

Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. MIN) – Dempster has four 8-strikeout games including a pair of 10-K outings. The Twins have been fanned 8+ times on five occasions this year (three of them by Tigers pitchers) and one last night when Clay Buchholz did it. The other was Jake Peavy. So all five were legitimate strikeout guys. While this team isn’t known for fanning a lot, they are still susceptible to swing-and-miss studs which Dempster has been this year.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at SF) – Kendrick is a different pitcher since joining the rotation last year. He upped his strikeout rate by five percentage points to 17.2% last year and then actually tacked on a little bit more so far this year 17.6% through six starts. He’s pitching in a great park tonight and he keeps the ball down at a near 50% clip. Some outlets won’t have caught up to the fact that Kendrick is a solid arm capable of sustaining this success which makes him a great bargain buy at those spots. In other outlets where he is fairly priced, don’t be afraid to buy in especially if you want to save some money while getting some real upside for a big outing.

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at HOU) – Wilson got to Stros earlier this year allowing just one run in six innings, but he only fanned three while walking four. If they could’ve taken advantage of his mistakes, they’d have been able to put up more against him. The Astros are 11th in the league in OPS versus lefties with a 753 mark so don’t automatically assume a steamroll W here.

Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. KC) – Chen has traded some of his strikeouts for fewer home runs, which is a good deal in my book since the homers hurt more than a few strikeouts would help. The Royals are pretty adept at hitting lefty sliders (813 OPS, 2nd in baseball), but Chen’s yields an absurd 236 OPS while being thrown 12% of the time (second-most behind his change for his secondary offerings). Who will win in the matchup of the best lefty slider in the game (by OPS) against the second-best hitting team against the same pitch? I give Chen the advantage in a one-night sample.

Ervin Santana, KC (at BAL) – I like Santana more long-term than tonight. The O’s have a strong lineup and they are especially good against his money pitch: the slider. They have a 745 OPS against the pitch, third in baseball with a .437 SLG against that is also third in baseball. Erv is susceptible to the home run when trouble hits and I worry that the O’s will leave the yard a time or two. There is just too much risk for the potential upside.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at COL) – I trust Kuroda’s stuff enough to start him in Coors in a standard fantasy league where you’re dealing with season-long samples, but in a one-night battle there just doesn’t seem to be any reason to take on such a risk. The Rockies crushed David Price (9 ER) and knocked Matt Moore (4 ER in 5 IP) around over the weekend and they are both ostensibly better pitchers than Kuroda (though Price hasn’t shown it much so far this season). He keeps the ball down with a 52% groundball rate and misses plenty of bats, but I just think there are too many more useful options available when his price is still high at several outlets.

Kris Medlen, ATL (at CIN) – The Reds have made their money off of a lefties this year hitting righties at just a 679 OPS, fourth-worst in baseball. But Medlen has really come back to his talent level which is that of a quality, but not ace-level pitcher. His prices are still ace-level in spots and that is likely due to a 3.38 ERA, but I see a 1.37 WHIP suggesting that he could be in trouble if these bats are on. Despite the early struggles against right-handers, their lineup is potent.

USE CAUTION:

Tim Lincecum, SF (v. PHI) – The name carries a lot more cache than the performance. I don’t know how you could possibly feel comfortable even at a discounted rate.

Zach McAllister, CLE (v. OAK) – He’s a solid arm, but a 1.2 HR/9 rate screams, “Don’t start me against the league’s highest scoring team by total runs!”

Justin Grimm, TEX (at MIL) – I believe in him more than teammate Nick Tepesch, but he gets a much tougher offense than Tepesch got in a Brewers team that just got Aramis Ramirez back, too.

J.A. Happ, TOR (v. TB) – His inconsistency is maddening. Shuts out Boston for 5.3 in his season debut, then walks seven Red Sox a month later. The White Sox rock him, then he gives up one (zero earned) in six against a tough Baltimore team.

Travis Wood, CHC (v. STL) – His hot start is two parts smoke, one part mirror. He simply doesn’t have the stuff to hold a 5.4 H/9 rate.

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. NYY) – Still working out the kinks in his return from injury.

Josh Beckett, LAD (v. ARI) – The skills are there, but so are the home runs and those have been the killer early on. The D’Backs can leave the yard in bunches so this is probably a risk better left for someone else.

Hector Santiago, CWS (at NYM) – It’s a wait-and-see approach with the screwball pitcher who only recently joined the rotation. I prefer surer things, especially at outlets that heavily reward pitching.

Eric Stults, SD (v. MIA) – This constitutes the obligatory bump for facing Miami or else he’d be in the ignore pile. He’s been terrible this year, especially in Petco which is weird.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Roberto Hernandez, TB
• Brandon McCarthy, ARI
• Scott Diamond, MIN
• Alex Sanabia, MIA
• Tommy Milone, OAK
• Jordan Lyles, HOU
• Wily Peralta, MIL
• Aaron Harang, SEA*