Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 3rd, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
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Performance and Talent Statistics: September 3rd, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | CWS | 180.1 | 2.99 | 2.93 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 26.5% | 5.4% | 0.95 | 1.44 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 171.1 | 2.89 | 3.75 | 1.10 | 55.6% | 17.9% | 4.5% | 0.89 | 1.49 | |
| Tillman | BAL | 167.0 | 3.61 | 4.05 | 1.23 | 51.9% | 20.6% | 8.4% | 1.46 | 0.98 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 141.1 | 3.95 | 4.16 | 1.42 | 34.6% | 23.2% | 11.9% | 1.02 | 1.17 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | 162.0 | 3.56 | 3.76 | 1.28 | 63.0% | 24.0% | 9.8% | 0.89 | 1.34 | |
| Martin | PHI | 25.1 | 6.39 | 4.10 | 1.78 | 16.7% | 26.2% | 13.1% | 2.49 | 0.64 | |
| Wacha | STL | 33.1 | 3.78 | 2.99 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 26.8% | 6.5% | 1.08 | 1.05 | |
| Bailey | CIN | 177.1 | 3.55 | 3.25 | 1.14 | 51.9% | 24.0% | 5.7% | 0.86 | 1.37 | |
| Torres | NYM | 55.1 | 2.77 | 3.45 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 3.2% | 0.98 | 1.30 | |
| Medlen | ATL | 161.0 | 3.58 | 3.89 | 1.29 | 38.5% | 18.1% | 5.7% | 1.01 | 1.43 | |
| Scherzer | DET | 183.1 | 2.90 | 2.94 | 0.93 | 66.7% | 28.4% | 6.1% | 0.79 | 0.87 | |
| Lester | BOS | 178.1 | 3.99 | 4.11 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 7.9% | 0.91 | 1.20 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 114.1 | 4.72 | 4.42 | 1.41 | 27.8% | 16.1% | 9.1% | 0.94 | 1.65 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 150.2 | 4.90 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 30.8% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 0.78 | 1.89 | |
| Ramirez | SEA | 48.2 | 5.18 | 3.92 | 1.34 | 25.0% | 19.9% | 6.6% | 1.66 | 1.02 | |
| Chen | KCR | 87.0 | 2.79 | 4.68 | 1.16 | 66.7% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 0.83 | 0.53 | |
| Cole | PIT | 85.1 | 3.80 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 42.9% | 17.7% | 5.2% | 0.74 | 1.93 | |
| Gallardo | MIL | 147.2 | 4.39 | 4.16 | 1.42 | 38.5% | 17.8% | 8.7% | 0.85 | 1.83 | |
| Hernandez | MIN | 37.1 | 5.54 | 5.32 | 1.69 | 0.0% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 1.45 | 1.06 | |
| Cosart | HOU | 51.0 | 1.59 | 5.15 | 1.27 | 75.0% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 0.18 | 2.39 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 173.2 | 3.26 | 3.74 | 1.16 | 46.4% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 0.83 | 1.30 | |
| Chacin | COL | 169.1 | 3.08 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 57.7% | 15.9% | 7.0% | 0.37 | 1.66 | |
| Redmond | TOR | 52.1 | 4.30 | 3.60 | 1.26 | 22.2% | 25.5% | 8.5% | 1.38 | 0.60 | |
| Miley | ARI | 169.2 | 3.55 | 3.97 | 1.30 | 48.1% | 17.6% | 7.8% | 1.01 | 2.01 | |
| Moore | TBR | 121.1 | 3.41 | 4.16 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 22.6% | 11.0% | 0.74 | 0.92 | |
| Vargas | LAA | 114.1 | 3.54 | 4.46 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 16.3% | 7.7% | 0.94 | 1.13 | |
| Perez | TEX | 88.0 | 3.58 | 4.24 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 7.0% | 1.13 | 1.64 | |
| Colon | OAK | 159.1 | 2.94 | 4.44 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 0.62 | 1.14 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | 176.1 | 2.91 | 3.53 | 1.04 | 59.3% | 23.8% | 7.8% | 0.71 | 1.31 | |
| Erlin | SDP | 28.2 | 5.97 | 4.84 | 1.47 | 60.0% | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.26 | 0.81 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at PHI) – The Phillies are just the worst against lefties in just about any timeframe of the season. Gonzalez has a pair of seven inning outings against them with just three earned allowed and 16 strikeouts. The only thing keep Gonzalez from a brilliant couple of summer months is two of the worst outings in MLB all year. He’s gone 3.3 IP allowing 10 and 7 ER against the Tigers and Royals over his last 10 starts giving him a 4.42 ERA in 57 IP. If you remove those starts, he has a 1.97 ERA in the other eight.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (at SD) – While Bumgarner hasn’t been overwhelmingly special of late (3.99 ERA in his last five), he still hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of the outings or in any of his last 15 outings for that matter. He has three gems against the Padres with two 7 IP/2 ER outings and a 6 IP/2 ER one with 24 strikeouts in the 20 innings.
Wade Miley, ARI (v. TOR) – This one is simple: Miley is on fire with a 2.39 ERA since the break and 2.66 since June 1st while the Jays cannot hit lefties on the road. They have an MLB-worst .207 wOBA against them during the second half and a .209 regardless of venue the last two weeks.
Chris Sale, CWS (at NYY) – He’s going to cost you, but he should deliver. He had a couple of ugly outings in August (5 and 8 ER), yet still managed a 3.95 ERA for the month. That isn’t exactly awesome, but considering the hole he dug himself, it’s still impressive. He threw 7.3 IP strong innings against the Yankees early in the month allowing one unearned run and fanning six in a win.
Kris Medlen, ATL (v. NYM) – I was out on Medlen for all of July and some of August, but he’s really started to pitch well making an outing against the wretched Mets quite appealing. He had a 3.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 36 IP during August along with a sparkling 30/5 K/BB ratio. The David Wright-less Mets have posted a .298 wOBA against righties the last two weeks and they just lost Marlon Byrd and Russell Martin.
Jason Vargas, LAA (v. TB) – Vargas threw seven shutout against the Rays his last time out and now he gets them at home, where he excels with a 3.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 2.2 K/BB ratio. The Rays offense is struggling mightily of late, even against lefties where they had been a force previously. In the last two weeks, their wOBA is down to .289 against them and they’ve fallen to .299 since the break. They led baseball with a .342 in the first half.
Chris Tillman, BAL (at CLE) – I was skeptical of Tillman’s All-Star bid this year as it seemed to be built more off of his win-loss record than actual good work, but he’s sort of retroactively earned it with a big August. He has a 2.57 ERA in his last five outing spanning 35 IP with 32 Ks and just seven walks. He’s gone at least six innings in each start allowing more than 2 ER just once. He’s only given up more than 3 ER twice in 16 starts since June, but they were 5 and 6 ER which inflated his ERA giving him a good-but-not-great 3.21 ERA in that span. The Indians excel against lefties so I like the righty here.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Max Scherzer, DET (at BOS) – Scherzer was bailed out of a loss in his last outings after the A’s got to him for a 5 IP/5 ER dud and yet he still had a 2.50 ERA in six August starts which tells you how strong he was prior to that outing. Heading into Fenway isn’t easy and given the price associated with Scherzer, it’s probably best to look elsewhere, but I do still expect a strong effort. The Red Sox bats have been chilly of late with .295 wOBA against righties the last two weeks.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. CWS) – Kuroda was horrible in the final half of August with an 8.10 ERA in three starts in the homes of his division foes (BOS, TOR, TB). It’s an uncharacteristic lull for him and I’m not yet sure if it’s a signifier of something more serious or simply some tough starts against quality opponents. That he has a 2.89 ERA on the other side of it all shows you just how good he’s been on the whole this year, but his season ERA won’t help us tonight. The White Sox are a far cry from all three of the opponents that railed him and he returns home where he’s been amazing (1.54 ERA in 70 IP) so I’m willing to trust him here.
Robbie Erlin, SD (v. SF) – With only five MLB starts under his belt, there isn’t a lot to go off for Erlin, but he’s been excellent at home with a pair of gems back in June. He had a pair of implosions on the road in July that led to his demotion, but he returned last week with a 6 IP/1 ER in Arizona. The Giants don’t scare anyone offensively. Erlin is a strong budget-conscious option today and makes a tremendous secondary option in particular.
Bruce Chen, KC (v. SEA) – This one is similar to Miley except with a far less skilled pitcher hence his ranking down here. He started August off nicely with outings of 1, 0, and 0 ER before giving up 13 ER to the Tigers and Nats over two starts, but he bounced back with a 5.7 IP/1 ER outing in Minnesota. The Mariners haven’t been much better against lefties than the Jays of late with a .263 wOBA in the second half and .276 the last two weeks.
Erasmo Ramirez, SEA (at KC) – He somehow went 4-0 with a 7.06 ERA, but now he’s just 1-1 in his last three with a 2.33 ERA. He’s finally pitching how I expected when he was first promoted with a 2.8 K/BB ratio in those 19.3 IP over his last three outings. The Mariners are once again hitting a level where you worry about run support, thus I like Ramirez as more of a secondary option.
Yovani Gallardo, MIL (v. PIT) – He only made three starts in August, but they were awesome as he had a 0.93 ERA in 19.3 IP in two starts against Cincinnati and his most recent coming against Pittsburgh. He threw seven shutout innings in Pittsburgh and now gets the light-hitting Pirates at home. He’s been tough to trust this year, but he’s throwing some of his best ball of the season after a DL stint in early August.
Martin Perez, TEX (at OAK) – Perez had a huge 5-0 August with a 3.06 ERA in 35.3 IP of work, but it’s worth noting the competition, or lack thereof: LAA, HOU, SEA (2x), and CWS. Oakland offers the biggest challenge for him in a while as they’ve destroyed lefties since the break with a .346 wOBA and they’ve been especially hot of late with a .425 in the last two weeks.
USE CAUTION:
Homer Bailey, CIN (v. STL) – Bailey dropped 7.3 scoreless on the Cards last time out with seven strikeouts and just seven base runners allowed. It was the first good outing against STL for Bailey this year (10.2 IP w/11 ER in two earlier starts) and though he’s really good, I’m not sure I’d bet on another masterpiece like his last outing. The risk is high, but with his last start as evidence, so is the reward.
Jon Lester, BOS (v. DET) – He somewhat quietly chiseled his ERA down below 4.00 with a nice August (2.97 ERA in six starts), but he gets a Tigers team that has pounded lefties all year long. The Tigers are third in wOBA against lefties since the All-Star break and fourth in the last two weeks.
Michael Wacha, STL (at CIN) – My main point of caution with Wacha is the innings. He was inadvertently stretched out a bit last week in “Adam Wainwright(player-profile)”:/players/Adam_Wainwright-13385’s first of two straight duds against Cincinnati (what the heck was that?!) when he went four scoreless with seven strikeouts. He threw 65 pitches in that outing after spending most of the month in 1-2 IP relief outings. Another point of caution would be the fact that the Reds are crushing righties with a .359 wOBA the last two weeks, but that could be all Wainwright-induced given how badly they’ve pummeled him. Wacha is a decent secondary option, but he might not have the juice to go more than five, putting a win in doubt.
Matt Moore, TB (at LAA) – He hasn’t pitched in over a month and he gets a solid Angels lineup that actually leads baseball in first-inning runs scored. If he’s on a short leash pitch count-wise, he might only go five or six innings and if he gives up runs in the first, he’s facing an uphill battle right away. I just don’t see the upside.
Ricky Nolasco, LAD (at COL) – Nolasco is in the midst of a 16-inning scoreless streak, but has to try and maintain it in Coors Field which strikes me as a rather daunting task. He’s been excellent with the Dodgers allowing three or fewer runs in every one of his 10 outings, but everything changes in Colorado.
Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. LAD) – Chacin has actually done some nice work at home with a 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 2.1 K/BB ratio in 99.3 IP including a 6 IP/1 ER outing at home against the Dodgers. They’ve drilled him for 9 ER in 11.7 IP in two other outings in LA, though, so I’m left entering this one quite cautiously.
Gerrit Cole, PIT (at MIL) – He’s given up 20 hits in his last two outings, including 10 in seven innings to the Brewers his last time out. He’s had flashes of brilliance throughout his debut season and it’s easy to see how he can become an ace in the future if he puts it all together consistently, but the slog of a full six month season might be catching up to him a bit. Be careful and perhaps only consider Cole as a secondary option today.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (v. MIA) – I know he’s facing the Marlins, but opponent never really seems to matter with Jackson. He was blasted for 5 ER in San Diego two starts, but then held the Dodgers to 2 ER in LA his last time out. Earlier in the month he allowed 7 ER in Philly before holding the Cardinals to 1 ER at home. I realize the Marlins are wretched, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a secondary option today.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (v. HOU) – I’m still betting against Mr. Sub-1.0 K/BB ratio. These skills just cannot sustain a sub-2.00 ERA.
I’m fully out on the rest of the slate today, but if you have any questions on specifically why for any of them, let me know:
- Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. TEX)
- Carlos Torres, NYM (at ATL)
- Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (v. BAL)
- Pedro Hernandez, MIN (at HOU)
- Tom Koehler, MIA (at CHC)
- Todd Redmond, TOR (at ARI)
- Ethan Martin, PHI (v. WAS)
ADVANCED METRICS: September 3rd, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Sale | 0.186 | 2.08 | 0.309 | 3.26 | 0.249 | 0.681 | 0.288 | 3.11 | 0.226 | 108.68 | 67.0% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.318 | 3.43 | 0.266 | 2.31 | 0.253 | 0.691 | 0.274 | 3.50 | 0.242 | 99.56 | 63.8% | ||
| Tillman | 0.307 | 3.47 | 0.323 | 3.88 | 0.248 | 0.723 | 0.268 | 4.51 | 0.239 | 105.70 | 63.6% | ||
| Jimenez | 0.314 | 3.76 | 0.345 | 4.23 | 0.271 | 0.777 | 0.294 | 4.10 | 0.237 | 98.73 | 61.1% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.249 | 2.93 | 0.328 | 3.79 | 0.230 | 0.670 | 0.287 | 3.57 | 0.229 | 102.74 | 62.0% | ||
| Martin | 0.360 | 2.77 | 0.410 | 10.22 | 0.253 | 0.711 | 0.328 | 6.00 | 0.274 | 84.00 | 60.7% | ||
| Wacha | 0.228 | 1.04 | 0.349 | 6.75 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.295 | 3.19 | 0.233 | 56.40 | 65.4% | ||
| Bailey | 0.339 | 3.89 | 0.248 | 3.29 | 0.284 | 0.766 | 0.297 | 3.13 | 0.239 | 103.41 | 67.2% | ||
| Torres | 0.268 | 3.05 | 0.298 | 2.62 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 0.275 | 3.49 | 0.244 | 30.15 | 67.8% | ||
| Medlen | 0.329 | 3.72 | 0.333 | 3.53 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.304 | 3.82 | 0.265 | 93.67 | 65.9% | ||
| Scherzer | 0.279 | 3.08 | 0.215 | 2.70 | 0.282 | 0.807 | 0.252 | 2.73 | 0.193 | 105.85 | 66.2% | ||
| Lester | 0.322 | 4.17 | 0.326 | 3.96 | 0.273 | 0.782 | 0.295 | 3.83 | 0.252 | 107.04 | 63.5% | ||
| Koehler | 0.333 | 5.64 | 0.345 | 4.05 | 0.244 | 0.707 | 0.301 | 4.27 | 0.267 | 76.71 | 61.5% | ||
| Jackson | 0.358 | 5.89 | 0.326 | 4.20 | 0.232 | 0.619 | 0.316 | 3.72 | 0.270 | 95.38 | 60.7% | ||
| Ramirez | 0.351 | 5.86 | 0.318 | 4.29 | 0.257 | 0.687 | 0.290 | 4.64 | 0.260 | 93.22 | 64.1% | ||
| Chen | 0.350 | 3.81 | 0.265 | 2.43 | 0.231 | 0.661 | 0.254 | 3.91 | 0.226 | 53.07 | 65.7% | ||
| Cole | 0.303 | 4.04 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.306 | 3.41 | 0.263 | 89.36 | 64.9% | ||
| Gallardo | 0.335 | 4.44 | 0.333 | 4.38 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.265 | 97.46 | 59.9% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.242 | 2.19 | 0.445 | 7.50 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.320 | 5.39 | 0.307 | 75.33 | 61.4% | ||
| Cosart | 0.248 | 1.16 | 0.335 | 2.37 | 0.238 | 0.695 | 0.250 | 3.84 | 0.219 | 105.38 | 57.7% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.321 | 3.84 | 0.281 | 2.70 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.286 | 3.42 | 0.243 | 98.64 | 62.8% | ||
| Chacin | 0.322 | 3.59 | 0.276 | 2.69 | 0.271 | 0.728 | 0.280 | 3.17 | 0.240 | 95.69 | 64.8% | ||
| Redmond | 0.286 | 3.49 | 0.382 | 5.25 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.289 | 4.22 | 0.235 | 77.17 | 62.7% | ||
| Miley | 0.313 | 4.10 | 0.327 | 3.46 | 0.244 | 0.685 | 0.290 | 4.07 | 0.255 | 98.63 | 63.2% | ||
| Moore | 0.285 | 2.65 | 0.288 | 3.75 | 0.243 | 0.714 | 0.256 | 3.69 | 0.207 | 98.62 | 60.6% | ||
| Vargas | 0.346 | 1.67 | 0.328 | 4.35 | 0.280 | 0.764 | 0.298 | 4.05 | 0.264 | 100.39 | 63.8% | ||
| Perez | 0.369 | 3.52 | 0.304 | 3.64 | 0.245 | 0.735 | 0.279 | 4.30 | 0.255 | 94.00 | 63.6% | ||
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.12 | 0.281 | 2.78 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.294 | 3.35 | 0.267 | 92.04 | 68.4% | ||
| Bumgarner | 0.216 | 2.43 | 0.281 | 3.11 | 0.254 | 0.734 | 0.246 | 3.18 | 0.198 | 103.78 | 63.6% | ||
| Erlin | 0.336 | 6.35 | 0.344 | 5.82 | 0.255 | 0.670 | 0.301 | 4.64 | 0.278 | 74.43 | 64.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 3rd, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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