DeAndre Hopkins Odds to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
Arizona online sports betting is set for September 9th, the first day of the NFL season! So is DeAndre Hopkins worth a bet to lead the league in receiving yards when things go live on Thursday? Our NFL betting analyst, Andy Means, takes a look at the odds. Make sure to claim over $525 in FREE BETS at sportsbooks in Arizona now!
Regular Season Most Receiving Yards Odds
- Calvin Ridley +750
- Justin Jefferson +850
- Stefon Diggs +850
- Davante Adams +900
- Tyreek Hill +900
- DeAndre Hopkins +1000
Despite finishing the 2020 season with the third most receiving yards in the NFL (1,407), Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins finds himself just sixth on the odds list to lead the NFL in receiving in 2021. So that begs the question: is there value on Deandre Hopkins +1000?
It makes sense to start with his competition. Calvin Ridley being the favorite certainly makes sense with Julio Jones now in Tennessee. Ridley had a 25.4% target share last season in his 15 games but was an absolute target hog without Julio around (Julio missed seven games last season). Below were the target shares for Ridley in each of those games Julio missed:
Week 3: 34.2%
Week 5: 28.6%
Week 12: 24.3%
Week 14: 37.5%
Week 15: 29.2%
Week 16: 26.5%
Week 17: 29.3%
That seems good! So yeah, I will repeat: hard to argue with Ridley being the favorite.
Justin Jefferson (1,400 receiving yards) finished a mere seven yards behind Hopkins in 2020. I mean, how impressive was that for a rookie campaign? Sheesh! And while I in no way want to imply that he can’t do it again (and more), Jefferson still finds himself in a Vikings offense that has a lot of mouths to feed. Dalvin Cook is still there. Adam Thielen is still there. Jefferson’s arrow is obviously pointing up, but I see more obstacles here for him than some of the other guys on this list.
Speaking of some of the other guys, enters last year’s league leader in receiving yards, Stefon Diggs (1,535 yards). It’s safe to say that Diggs’s first season in Buffalo was a success. He and quarterback Josh Allen developed instant chemistry, as the 29.9% target share for Diggs last season was surpassed only by Davante Adams (34%) and Michael Thomas (30.2%).
And the aforementioned Davante Adams might be the sneaky name on this list, if it is possible for Adams to be sneaky at anything revolving around “being good at catching footballs”. While he finished fifth in the league in receiving yards (1,374) last season, he also missed two games. If you look at yards per game, Adams (98.1) actually edged out Diggs (95.9).
The last place to touch on would be those two guys in Kansas City, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Kelce finished a surprising second in the league last season (1,416 yards) but still finds himself with the eighth shortest odds heading into 2021. Tyreek, who finished eighth last season (1,276 yards), is tied with Adams for the fourth shortest odds.
Can Hopkins Lead the NFL in Receiving?
Clearly, Hopkins has some stiff competition, but there are plenty of things working in his favor too. For one thing, he finished just a hair behind Diggs (29.9%) with a 29.5% target share. That was the fourth highest in the league. And even though you probably can’t project it, I don’t think it is outlandish to say that it could be higher this season.
As things stand now, it looks like Larry Fitzgerald and his 15.9% target share (third highest on the team last year) won’t be coming back to the Cardinals. Second on the team in target share last season was Christian Kirk (16.3%), and it appears he is heading into the season #4 on the WR depth chart.
It’s obviously not all that simple though, as the Cardinals brought in A.J. Green and also drafted Rondale Moore. With these two guys, you can pretty easily talk yourself into wildly different scenarios, one which would help Hopkins on this bet and one which would hurt him.
As it pertains to Green, he is now 33 years old and is coming off of easily his worst season as a pro. Now was that because he had guys like Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley throwing to him for a good chunk of games? Or are we seeing Father Time win out here? Considering Green wasn’t exactly going bonkers early last season while Burrow was still healthy, perhaps it is the latter. I suppose we will be finding out here soon!
As for Moore, everyone has already been raving about him in the preseason. And while that is all fine and good and neat, we should always head into these situations with at least a little bit of caution. After all, he is just a rookie, and he played a total of seven games the past two seasons for Purdue. The flip side to that argument is that talent usually wins out, and this is a guy who scored 14 TDs (12 receiving, 2 rushing) from scrimmage in 13 games the last full season he played in college. And since it looks like he is a perfect fit for Kingsbury’s horizontal offense, you can also see Moore eating into some of Nuk’s targets.
So where does that leave things as it pertains to Hopkins and this bet? Ultimately, I do think this is pretty good value to get on a guy who missed out on this title by just 128 yards last season. With guys like Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams (my preferred guys on that list if not betting on Nuk), Hopkins is going to have to go out and win it. There will be no backing into the most receiving yards in the league with talent (and opportunity) like those guys.
But ya know what? Hopkins has talent (and opportunity) too. Maybe A.J. Green is in fact dust. Maybe Rondale Moore struggles in his first season as a pro. And maybe Kyler Murray ends up pumping the brakes a little on the rushing, as he alluded to in the offseason. With another year under their belts to develop that much-needed chemistry, I could easily see Hopkins topping the charts in receiving yards in 2021.
Image Credit: Imagn