DFS NBA Picks Tonight: DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleeper Picks
On the heels of Tuesday night’s 2-game appetizer, we’ve got the real NBA DFS main course on tap for Wednesday with a 12-game smorgasbord of a slate.
At first glance, roster construction should be interesting given the lack of high-end options. With the exception of Luka Doncic, we don’t have any of the true superstars going tonight. None of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Joel Embiid is in action tonight, while Luka himself is actually questionable for the Mavs’ season opener with a calf injury.
This slate should also feature no shortage of value. Below, I’ll give you a bird’s-eye view of tonight’s 12-game NBA DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Will Luka Play?
The Doncic news is likely the most important situation we’ll have to follow heading into lock. He missed quite a bit of time during the preseason with that calf issue, though he’s reportedly no longer feeling any soreness. Assuming he came out of yesterday’s practice feeling fine, I’d expect him to suit up tonight when the Mavs take on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.
If the team decides to let Luka rest, Kyrie Irving will gain a lot of appeal as a spend in all formats. Kyrie didn’t spend much time in Dallas last season, but he did post a usage rate just south of 30% with Doncic on the bench. I’d expect that number to rise even more this season, especially now that another high-usage player – Christian Wood – is a Laker.
Tim Hardaway and Seth Curry would look a little more appealing as value plays if Luka is out, though I’d hesitate to call either of them a core play in that scenario.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Optimizer Value
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PF/C Obi Toppin ($3,000)
After spending his first few NBA seasons buried on the Knicks’ bench behind Julius Randle, Obi Toppin will get a fresh start in Indiana this year. The former lottery pick started all of 5 games a season ago, but he’ll start this term as the Pacers’ starting power forward next to Myles Turner up front.
Toppin averaged a respectable 0.88 DK FP/min across his 62 appearances for New York last season. Most importantly, he averaged just under 16 minutes per game. We have him projected to play nearly double that tonight (30) for an Indiana squad that ranked third in the league in pace factor in 2022-23.
Tonight’s matchup against the Wizards is a favorable one, and the Pacers’ 121 implied team total is actually the highest on the slate. There is admittedly a bit of uncertainty with the minutes, especially considering the Pacers have a promising rookie, Jarace Walker, who also happens to play power forward. For $3,000, though, it’ll be hard for Toppin to hurt you in any format, even though he’ll likely be the most popular player at any position in DK tournaments.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Optimizer Value
PF/C Xavier Tillman ($5,900)
Things look a little tighter from a salary standpoint on FanDuel. As a result, the $5,900 Xavier Tillman looks like one of the better point-per-dollar plays. The Grizzlies have already lost Steven Adams for the year, which means Tillman will likely reprise a familiar role as the team’s starting center moving forward. Remember, Tillman got significant burn last year after Adams went down with another season-ending injury in January.
Tillman contributed a solid 0.99 FD FP/min with Adams on the bench last season, which is impressive considering his usage rate hovered around the 14% range. The issue was the minutes. We’d occasionally see the Grizzlies run him out there for 30-plus, while he’d also see 15-20 minutes on occasion depending on game flow.
Minutes shouldn’t be a problem tonight given the state of the Memphis frontcourt. In addition to Adams, they’ll also be without Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama. That leaves Jaren Jackson and Kenneth Lofton as the only other bigs capable of masquerading as centers. Against the Pelicans’ jumbo frontcourt, I feel very confident in our current 32-minute projection for Tillman.
NBA DFS Sleepers
It’s hard to go overlooked on a 2-game slate, so even the lower-owned plays were still decently popular. With 24 teams in action tonight, we should have little trouble finding some off-the-board plays that could prove to be difference-makers in tournaments.
C Daniel Gafford ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
Daniel Gafford is one that stands out. Center is arguably the best position on tonight’s slate, so it would be quite a surprise to see the Wizards’ big man crack 10% ownership on either DraftKings or FanDuel. Given the salaries, Gafford looks like a natural pivot away from the more popular Tillman.
Gafford was productive a season ago, averaging better than a fantasy point-per-minute. He only averaged about 20 minutes per game, however, in a frontcourt that also featured Kristaps Porzingis. KP is now in Boston, which leaves Gafford as the undisputed starting center for Washington moving forward.
Gafford upped his production to 1.05 FP/min in the minutes he played without Porzingis a year ago. More importantly, the minutes should be much more secure. As of now, he’s popping as a useful value around the industry in a 27-minute projection tonight against Indiana.
PG/SG Anfernee Simons ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD)
The Blazers shipped Damian Lillard to Milwaukee a couple of weeks ago, which means Scoot Henderson will begin the year as the Blazers’ new starting point guard. Scoot enters the league with plenty of fanfare, but Lillard’s departure should also clear the way for a potential breakout season from Anfernee Simons.
Simons’ usage jumped by over 6% with Dame on the bench last season to a team-high 31.7%. Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe could eat into that usage a bit, but Simons should still be Portland’s No. 1 offensive option this season. This is a role he’s never played on a full-time basis before, but we’ve seen him thrive when given chances to shoulder a bigger offensive load in the past.
Simons may be an $8,000 player before long, yet we’ll get him at a useful discount around the industry tonight when the Blazers face the Clippers in LA.