Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers - Game 2 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +130 |
| Rangers Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 28 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
This evening, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will play Game 2 of this year’s World Series. Texas emerged victorious in a Game 1 thriller thanks to a walk-off home run from Adolis Garcia. On Saturday, Arizona will look to even things up with Merrill Kelly on the bump. Jordan Montgomery will toe the rubber for Texas. First pitch between these two teams tonight is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on FOX.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Rangers as -150 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly gets the ball for Arizona in Game 2
Merill Kelly has put together an erratic postseason so far in 2023. In his first start, he blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers over 6.1 innings. In his second trip to the mound, he allowed four earned runs in only 5.2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. Yet he bounced back against that same Philadelphia lineup later in the National League Championship Series, allowing only one earned run in 5.0 innings while striking out eight batters.
Through three outings, Kelly has a strong 2.65 ERA, but a 4.73 FIP indicates that he has been far luckier than good. His 11.9% walk rate is 2.3% higher than it was during the regular season, which is cause for concern. Kelly has also benefited from a .162 BABIP during these playoffs despite allowing significantly more hard contact than he did during the regular season.
Facing an elite Texas offense in Game 2, Kelly does not project well.
Arizona offense faces tough test on Saturday
Following the All-Star break, Arizona struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, ranking 24th in OPS and 27th in ISO. The only thing this offense did well against southpaws during that stretch was make contact, owning the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in all of baseball from July 12th to the end of the regular season.
During these playoffs, Arizona has continued to be mostly unimpressive at the dish, ranking last in runs scored, extra-base hits, batting average, and OPS of any team to make the League Championship Series.
There are a couple of high-quality hitters in this lineup, but the overall talent in this lineup is underwhelming to say the least.
Diamondbacks’ bullpen in poor shape
Zac Gallen lasted only five innings in yesterday’s Game 1, which forced manager Torey Lovullo to use six different relievers behind him – including each of his top-three high-leverage options. Ryan Thompson threw 17 pitches, Kevin Ginkel threw 28 pitches, and Paul Sewald threw 22 pitches on Friday, leaving the back end of this unit in extremely poor shape heading into Game 2.
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen was a concern even before their heavy usage last night. Going into tonight’s action, they have no quality arms that are rested, which is a problem considering the fact that Ginkel and Sewald have struggled mightily on zero days of rest since the All-Star break.
Texas Rangers
What to expect from Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery has performed well so far this postseason, posting a 2.16 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP across 25.0 innings of work. Other than a poor start against the Baltimore Orioles in the Division Series, he has been outstanding for the Rangers.
During the American League Championship Series, Montgomery made three appearances (two starts), tossing 14.0 innings and allowing only two earned runs. He gets a favorable matchup against a weak-hitting Arizona team on Saturday, which bodes well for his chances of putting together another strong showing.
Seager, Garcia propelling Texas offense
During the first three rounds of the playoffs, the Rangers offense led all postseason teams in OPS, runs scored, and hits. Only the Phillies hit more home runs. In Game 1 of the World Series, this offense scored six runs despite having only one hit with runners in scoring position.
Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia each hit pivotal home runs, with Seager tying the game in the ninth inning against Paul Sewald and Garcia delivering the walk-off blast against Miguel Castro in the 11th frame. Now that this lineup has shaken off some of the rust that comes with a five-day layoff, there are few red flags (if any) heading into Game 2 against Merrill Kelly.
Texas bullpen usage update
Texas will face an interesting challenge in the late innings tonight if they have a lead going into the final few frames. Yesterday, Nathan Eovaldi had his shortest start of the postseason, which forced manager Bruce Bochy to use five different relievers from his arm barn. The most notable decision Bochy made was using Jose Leclerc for two innings and 26 pitches to secure the first win of the World Series. Though the decision was necessary and paid off, it leaves him in a tough spot for Saturday’s Game 2.
It has been abundantly clear during the Rangers playoff run that Bochy has minimal trust in anyone other than Leclerc, Aroldis Chapman, and Josh Sborz in his bullpen. Leclerc, Chapman, and Sborz have each appeared in over half of Texas’ postseason contests, and Bochy has seemingly made every effort to avoid using his other options whenever possible.
The Rangers’ bullpen was able to effectively navigate the Wild Card round and Division Series due to the 3-game and 5-game series format, neither of which requires a team to play on three consecutive days. However, this unit proved much more vulnerable in the ALCS, with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in seven games against the Astros.
This will be an area to watch tonight and going forward in this series.
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers – Picks & Predictions
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been annoyingly-competitive during these playoffs, but there is still little doubt that they are the far less talented team in this World Series matchup. The Texas Rangers were outplayed in nearly every facet in Game 1 but still managed to secure a 6-5 victory.
Arizona had the better performance from their starter yesterday, stole four bases, and had more hits with runners in scoring position, but still came up short. Tonight, they do not have the starting pitching advantage. Neither do they have the better offense or any type of advantage in the late innings with their bullpen.
Texas should be able to take a commanding 2-0 series lead in this spot.
PICK: Rangers Moneyline (-150, Fanatics Sportsbook)