Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction and Odds for NLDS Game 5
Dodgers vs. Giants Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -104 |
| Giants Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 14 |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Thursday evening, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will battle in the National League Division Series at Oracle Park. After splitting the first four games of this hard-fought series, these two clubs will decide who advances to the National League Championship Series in Game 5. Tonight, the Dodgers will send Julio Urias to the hill. He will be opposed by Logan Webb. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Giants securing a win in the series finale, pricing San Francisco as -112 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 5 of the NLDS.
Update (3pm ET): The Dodgers announced Corey Knebel will start in place of Julio Urias
Los Angeles Dodgers (-104)
🚨 Corey Knebel is starting tonight’s game for the #Dodgers 🚨
— The Commish (@DelphiCommish) October 14, 2021
Since August 28:
- 0.71 ERA
- 1.67 FIP
- 29.8 K%
- 6.4 BB%
- 0.79 WHIP
- 3.3% barrel rate
- 23.3% hard-hit rate
- 63.8% first-pitch strikes https://t.co/cbe7V0kLiy
The Los Angeles lineup features big names such as Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Bellinger. However, this group underperformed expectations by a wide margin this summer and were only slightly better than mediocre at the plate for the majority of the campaign. Still, this offense started to come alive over the final month of the regular season—ranking seventh in OPS and third in ISO after September 1. Inconsistency remains an issue, as the group has been shutout twice in this series, but also has two games in which they have scored seven or more runs. This is still a collection of talented hitters capable of generating a number of run-scoring opportunities, but they have become an unpredictable option for bettors.
Manager Dave Roberts is not going to be concerned about overuse in this pivotal win-or-go-home matchup. That being said, Blake Treinen has pitched in two of the last three days, which is never ideal. Fortunately, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Alex Vesia, Phil Brickford, Brusdar Graterol, and Corey Knebel have all thrown 14 pitches or less over the last three days. This relief corps is as rested as they have been in weeks. Everyone is available for this talented unit this evening.
San Francisco Giants (-112)
Webb has been tabbed by advanced statisticians for years as a breakout candidate, and it finally manifested on the field in 2021. Across 148.1 innings of work, Webb posted a 3.03 ERA, 3.22 xERA, and a 2.72 FIP. He ranked in the 66th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, whiff-rate, and chase rate. He was at his best when pitching in the comfort of his home ballpark—delivering a 2.35 FIP, 30.6 strikeout percentage, and a 0.95 FIP at Oracle Park this year. In his first career postseason outing, he held the Dodgers scoreless across 7.2 innings while striking out 10 batters. There are few concerns about his ability to pitch well in Game 5.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, the Giants ranked 10th in OPS, ninth in ISO, first in walk-rate, and 10th in strikeout percentage. This offense is paced by two familiar names—Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford, in addition to trade deadline acquisition Kris Bryant. This lineup is not short on talent, but they have struggled in this series, scoring only nine runs in four games. This group is likely to struggle to put runs on the board once again with an all-hands-on-deck approach from the Dodgers talented bullpen in Game 5.
Similar to the Dodgers, the Giants have done a good job managing their bullpen usage in this series. Entering play on Thursday, only Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers have thrown in two of the last three days. Zack Littell, Jarlin Garcia, Dominic Leone, Camilo Doval, and Kervin Castro are all rested and available for Manager Gabe Kapler tonight. Expect aggressive usage of his relievers at the first sign of trouble from Webb in this contest.
Dodgers vs. Giants Prediction
At first pitch on Friday, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-60s with the usual heavy air that is seemingly always present in the Bay Area. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Oracle Park has produced the third-fewest offense of any venue in Major League Baseball in night games, including a home run rate that is 24 percent below league average. Urias and Webb have been two of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break. Both of these offenses are missing arguably their best hitter from the regular season, due to injury. Bettors should expect a low-scoring affair in this one. Take the under.
PICK: Under 7 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn