DraftKings Millionaire Maker Trends Through Week 13
Sometimes we need to think about other ways to win in DFS other than simply playing the best plays. Looking at trends of top lineups is one route to take to do just that. One of the easiest tools to become a better tournament player is studying the trends of lineups that win or nearly win.
I’ve been keeping track of some trends for the DraftKings Millionaire Maker for the first 13 weeks and wanted to share some of those here in a simple format for you to understand. These are all trends from the top 10 lineups each week.
If you want to follow these yourself with a little excel work, you can create your own trends to follow by either downloading the CSV from DraftKings, or just make it easy on yourself by using ResultsDB here on RotoGrinders to gather information.
Flex Usage
Over the past few weeks. we have seen RBs dominate the flex positions of the top lineups, and with 9 of the Top 10 lineups once again using RBs in the flex, we continue to see one of the strongest trends of the season hold up. RBs now account for 68.5% of Flex Spot usage for the Top 10 lineups on the season and with a season-high 73% of lineups in the Milly Maker this week using RBs, we can see the crowd shifting towards this trend.
Average Ownership by Position for Week 13
With Spencer Ware and his 60% ownership appearing in 6 of the Top 10 lineups this week, we easily set a new season high in Total AO with the number coming in at 165.77% compared to Week 4, which was the previous high water mark at 143.8%. D/ST ownership of the Top 10 lineups was under 6% for just the third time all season, as all three of the highest owned D/ST’s had under 10 points and busted compared to the field that had 11 of 26 D/STs score double-digit points. With all the late week value that opened up this week, I would easily expect this week to hold up as the highest AO of the season.
Average Ownership Through Week 13
Here are the totals of the AO each of the first 13 weeks of the season. We can see the strong trend of the high owned RBs dominating this year with not only RB holding a high ownership level but also looking towards the Flex position, as it is now the roster spot with the second-highest AO on the season.
Stacks for Week 13
Stack size was spread out this week for the first time in nearly a month, but the reoccurring theme throughout them was starting with Patrick Mahomes, as he appeared in 8 of the Top 10 lineups this week. You also needed to have Travis Kelce to sniff a good payout this week after he put up 42.8 FPTS and was on all of the Top 10 lineups.
Stacks Through Week 13
Team Stacks outnumber Game Stacks 71-48 on the season, with 11 non-stack teams making the Top 10 all season. You never know which combo of Team/Game stacks will be the optimal roster construction each week, so I like to make a variety of the stacks you see here that are doing well over the season.
Bust Rates of Top 3 Highest Owned at Position Through Week 13
Week 12 only had three busts at all of the positions, which was easily the best week of the season for the field; it proved to be an anomaly, as this week we had nine busts across the positions. Jared Goff (11.89%) busted at QB as the third-highest owned at the position along with players like Adam Thielen (23.45%) and Tyreek Hill (19.66%) also underperforming. I labeled Spencer Ware as a bust this week, which was one of the harder decisions I had to make all year in terms of defining a bust. He had 12.2 FPTS at 60% ownership, and while he appeared in 6 of the Top 10 lineups this week, he certainly was not an optimal play when it was all said and done. Let me know if you think Ware was a bust this week down below.
Low Owned Plays (Sub 5%) Per Lineup
Week 13 saw low-owned plays bounce back up to the season averages, as we saw 22 low owned plays spread amongst the Top 10 lineups. Tarik Cohen at 4% ownership and 37.64 FPTS was one of the keys to winning along with Zay Jones at 0.2% ownership with a stunning 24.7 FPTS. Both of these players ended up on the winning lineup. Low owned D/STs reigned supreme this week, as the Texans/Jets/Colts all made appearances in the Top 3 lineups at sub 4% ownership as well.
Week 13 Winning Lineup
Congratulations to adamlegbert, who won $1,000,000 on a SINGLE ENTRY into one of the most shark-filled Milly Makers in history due to the $100 entry fee. Mahomes to Kelce was a great start paired with two highly owned stud RBs and some low-owned plays elsewhere to take it down. Tarik Cohen at 4% looking back was a play we should have been on more, as the check-down nature of the Bears offense under Chase Daniel played itself out for the second consecutive week.
Hopefully this can help you look at the way you make your teams in a different light and help you make lineups more correlated with what the top lineups are actually doing.