DraftKings Week 12 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Looking towards Week 12, we have arguably the most exciting week of football we’ve had all season courtesy of the three-game Thanksgiving day slate. Unlike previous weeks, we will venture outside of the main slate and include all Thanksgiving players in our Week 12 DraftKings salary analysis.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Duke Johnson – $5700
Texans’ RBs have had the unfortunate consistency of projecting well on a week-to-week basis, but underperforming in nearly every game this season. On Sunday, Duke Johnson saw 15% ownership in the $4444 Fourth Down Conversion but managed to score just 6.5 DraftKings points on 13 touches and a 77% snap share. New England’s 4.3 yards per carry allowed was middle of the pack headed into this matchup with Houston, but they managed to hold Duke Johnson to an abysmal 1.5 yards per rush. Playing behind PFF’s 28th graded run-blocking offensive line does Johnson no favors, and at this point it’s reasonable to disregard any Texans RB until their DraftKings price more accurately reflects their wretched production.
Justin Herbert – $7200
The clear-cut favorite for ROY after an unfortunate injury to Joe Burrow, Herbert has excelled as a fantasy QB since being named the Chargers’ starter, averaging 26.7 DraftKings points per game. Herbert’s immediate concern is that he has played his best in situations that aren’t very predictive of future success, passing under pressure and passing on 3rd down. The rookie QB has the NFL’s best passer rating under pressure and the 2nd best passer rating on 3rd down.
For fantasy purposes, an elite passer rating under pressure is virtually meaningless, as it has just a 0.15 correlation to future passer rating under pressure. At the same time, 3rd down passing is too small of a sample to be valued highly. Herbert’s Week 12 matchup against Buffalo may look strong on paper. Still, the Bills’ bottom-5 run defense should encourage the Chargers to attack them on the ground, which is bad news for a QB in an offense that already throws the ball in neutral situations at a below-average rate. As the main slate’s 4th-most expensive QB, we need to be wary of chasing his previous performances now that his price has caught up to his fantasy output.
Jarvis Landry – $5200
The veteran WR has played in every Cleveland game this season and averaged a career-low 9.2 DraftKings points in those contests, while never eclipsing the 16-point mark in any individual game. Odell Beckham’s season-ending injury should have led to increased volume for Landry, who has seen just 6 targets per game as Cleveland’s presumptive WR1.
With the Browns throwing the ball just 48% of the time (3rd-lowest) and Baker Mayfield ranking 22nd among starting QBs in yards per attempt, it doesn’t look like Landry will have a chance to be relevant for DFS tournaments in Week 12 with Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite.
Giovani Bernard – $5700
Lead back Joe Mixon heading to IR should have meant an every-down role for Gio in a pass-happy offense. Still, Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury pushes all Bengals skill-position players to borderline fantasy irrelevance. Sure, Bernard has seen double-digit touches in his last 5 games and posted a couple of 20+ point DraftKings outings, but with the Burrow injury and backup RB Semaje Perine nipping at his heels with a 45% snap share in Week 11, it doesn’t look like Gio will see the volume necessary to be playable in arguably the league’s worst offense moving forward.
Alexander Mattison and Latavius Murray – $6000 and $5900
Don’t play backup RBs for $6000.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Tom Brady – $6600
Brady is shaping up as the top QB option of Week 12 in what should be the slate’s highest total game vs. Kansas City. Fantasy players don’t have to be told that teams facing the Chiefs will need to air the ball out to have a chance, and given the WR talent on Tampa Bay, no team may be better equipped to do so than the Buccaneers. TB’s neutral situation pass rate of 61% ranks 6th in the NFL, and Brady’s 9.4 average depth of target (ADoT) is 7th among starting QBs, making Tampa Bay an ideal team stack in Week 12 tournaments thanks to their downfield aggressiveness and pass-happy nature.
Hayden Hurst – $3900
Dipping under $4000 for the first time all season, Hurst will have a strong opportunity to bounce back from his W11 goose-egg in a high-total matchup with the Raiders in Week 12. With strong ‘buy-low’ spots being a theme of this article, Hurst is one of the all-around best ‘buy-low’ opportunities that we’ve seen in Fantasy RSI all season. Before Week 11, Hurst was the overall TE8 in DraftKings points while seeing a remarkably consistent 5.8 targets per game. With lead WR Julio Jones health in question for Week 12, Hurst should see additional target volume and get back to his steady role in the Falcons offense. This game’s total of 55.5 offers an added boost for Hurst, as TEs playing in games with a total greater than 53 have averaged 12.6 DraftKings points over the last 5 seasons. Barring complete disaster, Hurst won’t be this cheap again.
Demarcus Robinson – $3700
Assuming WR Sammy Watkins continues to miss time, it’s been Robinson, not Mecole Hardman, who’s been asked to fill in Watkins’ role. Robinson has played 75.4% of the Chiefs snaps in Watkins’ absence over the last 6 weeks while averaging 10.3 DraftKings points. To put it bluntly: a starting pass catcher in the most extraordinary passing attack of all-time is available for under $4000 and what should be relatively low ownership in Week 12. Even better, Robinson has the 3rd-highest ADoT and 3rd-most end zone targets on the team, so he runs deep enough routes and sees enough end zone looks to post a tournament-winning score. Ahead of a massive game against Tampa Bay that’s all but guaranteed to be a shootout, Robinson is a player that we simply can’t overlook.
Kareem Hunt – $5700
A frequent name on the Fantasy RSI overvalued list; this is the first time all year we’ve seen Hunt make his way to this half of the article. After a pedestrian Week 11 outing against Philadelphia, Hunt saw an $1100 price decrease, one of the largest one-week reductions we’ve seen for a player this season. While Nick Chubb’s return from injury will surely suppress Hunt’s Week 12 ownership, this past game suggests Hunt will earn significantly more valuable looks. We already know Chubb is a non-factor in the passing game, and Hunt earned all 8 of the Browns’ red zone carries on Sunday. Even if Chubb out-touches Hunt in what should be a run-centric game against Jacksonville this week, Hunt’s pass game and red zone work lift him to borderline RB1 status, a luxury at a reduced salary of $5700.