DraftKings Week 9 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
After a fun week of weather games, it’s time to run through our Fantasy RSI numbers to see where the value lies in Week 9 NFL DFS.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Corey Davis – $5900
Among the WRs who have seen at least 30 targets this season, Davis surprisingly ranks 13th in DraftKings points per game. Even those who are incredibly bullish on Davis will admit that he is far from the Titans’ WR1, and his scoring this year has seen some padding from the two games he played without A.J. Brown in the lineup. With his price trending toward WR1 territory, this is a fantastic opportunity to fade the 4th-year WR in a Week 9 matchup vs. Chicago. Low total games like this upcoming contest (46.5 over/under) have generally led to poor results for Corey Davis in the past, who has only averaged 9.1 DraftKings points in games with a total under 47 in his career.
Eric Ebron – $4500
The Steelers TE caught 4 of his 5 targets for 48 yards and 1 TD on Sunday and is now the 2nd-most expensive he’s been all season at $4500. Like many Tight Ends, Ebron is primarily touchdown-dependent, making him a much riskier play in Week 9 as the slate’s 6th-most expensive TE. With the plethora of receiving talent at the Steelers disposal, Ebron is at risk to get lost in the shuffle, and with five cheaper TEs on the Week 9 main slate who have earned more targets on the year, Ebron is an ideal ‘sell high’ candidate.
Allen Robinson – $6900
The world’s #1 victim of lousy QB play, Robinson ranks 2nd in the NFL in targets, but 9th in targets PFF deems ‘Catchable.’ While Robinson could easily be a top-5 fantasy WR on most other teams, the completely erratic play of QB Nick Foles makes a rather bearish case for the Bears’ veteran. At this point in the year, rostering ARob means putting your faith in Foles, a QB who ranks 28th in passer rating, 25th in completion %, 31st in yards per attempt, and 28th in PFF passing grade. I’m a believer in Robinson, just not the person who’s throwing him the ball.
Nelson Agholor – $4700
The 6th-year Agholor posted a 2 target, 0 catch performance against Cleveland on Sunday and saw his price remain stagnant heading into Week 9. Coming off three consecutive double-digit fantasy outings, Agholor saw 8% ownership in Week 8’s Millionaire Maker despite being the (at best) #3 receiving option on a team playing in disastrous weather. With most of Agholor’s value residing in his big-play ability, he’s shaping up as a great fade candidate in Week 9.
Agholor isn’t the primary deep option on his own team, with only 4 targets of 20+ yards compared to 8 for Henry Ruggs. In terms of QB play, Derek Carr doesn’t tend to reward deep-threats, posting the league’s 25th highest average depth of target. Finally, with rookie WR Bryan Edwards likely returning from injury in Week 9, the hit to Agholor’s playing time should be the final nail in the coffin for anybody looking to roster the Raiders WR.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper – $6600/$5600
With Andy Dalton expected to return in Week 9, both of these Cowboys are woefully underpriced. Saying anything good about Dallas is undoubtedly risky, but there is a strong bullish case to be heard. With the defense allowing 33.2 points and 384.9 yards per game, Dallas is always in a ‘score now’ mindset, demonstrated by their league-leading 21.5 seconds per play, which is 3.5 seconds ahead of 2nd place. For reference, the gap between 2nd and 32nd is just 5.1 seconds per play, so Dallas is getting plays off light-years faster than any other team in the league.
Just as important, this is a career-low salary for Zeke and the 4th cheapest Amari Cooper has ever been as a Cowboy. Facing the Steelers in Week 9 is far from an ideal matchup, but both players are simply too talented to see top-tier usage at these prices and not have a big game soon.
Josh Allen – $7000
Allen has seen a $900 salary decrease since Week 5 as his play and MVP hopes have fallen back down to earth. With a game against Seattle lined up for Week 9, you couldn’t dream of a better ‘buy-low’ spot for the 3rd-year QB. Assuming the Seahawks continue to put up points at will, Allen will need a massive game to give Buffalo a chance to win outright. While his recent passing numbers are certainly a concern, Allen offers the guaranteed floor of his 5.1 rush attempts per game and has actually avoided as many tackles as Lamar Jackson this season. With Seattle allowing a league-leading 358.7 passing yards per game, this is the perfect opportunity for Allen to show us more of what we saw in Weeks 1-4.
Marvin Jones Jr. – $5100
There was a decent case to be made for Jones before we knew Kenny Golladay would be out this week, but now we can safely view Jones as the top WR value of Week 9. Jones should absorb a good portion of Golladay’s 6.4 targets per game, which comes at the perfect time ahead of a matchup with the dismal Vikings secondary. Golladay also tied Jones for the team-lead in targets of 20+ yards, which sends some precious high-value targets back in Jones’ direction. While any Matt Patricia coached team can never be fully trusted, Jones is in a premier spot as the Lions’ WR1 this week.
Tyreek Hill – $7100
Hill was featured in last week’s column and followed up with his best game of the season in Week 8, so let’s run it back. Facing a Carolina coverage unit graded 27th on the year by PFF should provide plenty of open looks to Hill, who has 54 targets in the league’s most prolific passing offense. Hill is also 2nd in the NFL in targets of 20+ yards, averaging over 2 per game. We know Patrick Mahomes will find an open Tyreek Hill, so expect fireworks given the 19.4 DraftKings points Hill has averaged in his career when the Chiefs have an implied team total of 30+.