Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 18
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 18. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial drafting decisions. Curious about Neil Orfield’s preferred roster construction? Or perhaps you’re wondering about Davis Mattek’s favorite late-round target at each position? Find out below!
Expert Survey: NFL Playoff Best Ball ahead of Week 18
Which draft slot do you prefer? Who would be your ideal selection in that slot?
Neil Orfield: #1 spot. I like having back-to-back picks, and starting with Puka Nacua is always fun.
Davis Mattek: The first 3 slots are 100% the most valuable on all postseason draft platforms. It has become too hard to get Josh Allen + James Cook together, and you can get Puka Nacua + Davante Adams + Matthew Stafford from the #1 slot now.
Dan Back: My favorite draft spot is #1, #2, or #6. I’ve seen a few drafts where you can get James Cook and Josh Allen together drafting from the #2 spot, which I think is the optimal start. But getting the advantage of back-to-back picks when stacks/correlation is everything…I really prefer #1 or #6.
Billy Ward: #1, with my ideal start being Puka Nacua and another Ram (Matthew Stafford if available, but one of Davante Adams or Kyren Williams works as well).
Which early-round pick has the biggest bust potential?
Neil Orfield: Josh Allen
Davis Mattek: Josh Allen
Dan Back: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Who is your favorite late-round target at each position?
Neil Orfield: QB – Lamar Jackson; RB – Derrick Henry; WR – Zay Flowers; TE – Tyler Higbee
Davis Mattek: QB – Jordan Love; RB – Woody Marks; WR – Luther Burden III; TE – Oronde Gadsden
Dan Back: QB – Lamar Jackson; RB – Ty Johnson; WR – Brandin Cooks; TE – Mark Andrews
Billy Ward: QB – Justin Herbert; RB – Derrick Henry; WR – Ladd McConkey / Quentin Johnston; TE – Brenton Strange
What is your preferred roster construction?
Neil Orfield: A primary stack that includes at least the QB, top RB, top WR, and top TE, with two or three secondary stacks from the opposing conference.
Davis Mattek: 2 QB, 2-3 RB, 4-5 WR (and then 1-2 TE on DK)
Dan Back: One strong team stack and other players from two teams in the opposite conference.
Billy Ward: One main stack and two or three secondary stacks from the other conference.
Which team stack will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Patriots
Davis Mattek: Bears
Dan Back: Eagles
Billy Ward: Ravens
Which team stack will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Seahawks
Davis Mattek: Bills
Dan Back: Broncos
Billy Ward: Seahawks
Which big name will you be overweight on?
Neil Orfield: Christian McCaffrey
Davis Mattek: Christian McCaffrey
Dan Back: Jalen Hurts
Billy Ward: Christian McCaffrey
Which big name will you be underweight on?
Neil Orfield: Josh Allen
Davis Mattek: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Dan Back: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Billy Ward: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
What do you think is the optimal strategy for NFL Playoff Best Ball?
Neil Orfield: Ultimately, I want to be able to field a full roster in the Super Bowl round, ideally with an extra piece or two for more potential combos. I’d like to draft teams that could potentially have every player still active for the Conference Championship round (i.e. players from no more than 2 AFC teams and 2 NFC teams). To achieve this is not always straightforward though, as it is very dependent on the draft room. It is important to stay agile and accept that you might have to sacrifice some late-round pieces in order to advance.
Davis Mattek: This is pretty clear – the only thing that matters is fielding an optimal Super Bowl lineup. Anything that takes away from that is costing you money. A big shift in my thinking for these games this season is drafting more versions of optimal lineups for rarer Super Bowl matchups. For example, doing a Caleb Williams Bears stack instead of taking 3 crappy Bills players at the end of a draft.
Dan Back: I think it’s time to start drafting Ravens. They walk into their final game vs. the Steelers as favorites, and if they make the playoffs, they could make a run. You can get all the pieces for cheap, so I love them as a secondary stack with Rams/Eagles from the NFC.
Billy Ward: With all but one spot in each conference locked up, there’s not too much opportunity to get players with a real shot at making it to the Super Bowl for cheap, with the exception of the Ravens. I want to pair them with two other stacks from the AFC (which I view as more wide open) and one of the favorites from the NFC, ideally the Rams or 49ers.
With the varying roster requirements and scoring differences, how does your strategy differ between DraftKings and Underdog?
Neil Orfield: On DraftKings, I am more likely to add one-off pieces that are unlikely to make it deep into the playoffs. There is 1 additional starting spot for a TE but 2 extra roster spots, making it easier to fit in an “early-round advancement” piece.
Davis Mattek: I have started to take 3 TEs on a lot of my DK rosters. Luke Musgrave over Dontayvion Wicks / Matthew Golden, Oronde Gadsden over Keenan Allen, Dawson Knox as my last Bill, etc. I think this is a hidden edge in the game.
Dan Back: My preference is DraftKings because I like the deeper lineups and rosters. This allows you to take a few real off-the-board shots that could pay off if your stacks make the Super Bowl. Tight end becomes a lot more important too, as it’s a separate position on DK.
Billy Ward: The biggest difference for me is taking a shot at three stacks in one conference on Underdog, since starting one less player means we don’t need as many flex players. On DraftKings, my plan will exclusively be a primary stack with two teams from the other conference.
Which potential No. 1 seed is most likely to disappoint?
Neil Orfield: Seattle – The defense is great, and they pulled off the upset against the Rams in Week 16, but I still don’t trust Sam Darnold to win when it matters most.
Davis Mattek: The Broncos are already preparing their excuses for when they lose in the Divisional Round.
Dan Back: I’m still going to be very short on the Seahawks and Broncos. I have very little faith that either of those teams are good enough to make the Super Bowl, and missing that first round game is going to hurt advancement.
Billy Ward: Seattle – While some books now have them as Super Bowl favorites, it’s hard to get teams through with Seattle players presumably getting a first round bye, and it’s not worth the risk outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who can disappear in the wrong game script thanks to Seattle’s defense and extremely low pass rate over expectation.
On DraftKings, how much do you prioritize getting the TE1 with your QB1? Do you frequently reach ahead of ADP?
Neil Orfield: I definitely prioritize the TE with my top QB. It always depends on which team and how the draft room is shaking out, but I frequently do reach on a handful of picks for my QB-TE stack.
Davis Mattek: I prioritize it the same as you would with a WR1. You just have to ask yourself: will this guy project well in a given Super Bowl? Jordan Love + Luke Musgrave is probably not going to win, but Josh Allen + Dalton Kincaid might!
Dan Back: I think it depends on the stack. We are seeing guys like Colby Parkinson and Dalton Kincaid go a lot higher than I think we need to take them. I wouldn’t prioritize them on DK as much as guys like George Kittle and Hunter Henry because I think those two are much more critical in those team stacks. Late-round fliers on Dawson Knox and Terrance Ferguson could still pay off for those Rams/Bills stacks.
Billy Ward: That answer is highly team dependent. I will reach a bit for a premium tight end (someone like George Kittle), but I won’t go out of my way to force it when stacking teams that don’t involve their tight end heavily.
For NFL DFS content and access to all of our data and tools, head to the NFL Content Schedule. To sweat your lineups and bets with us, go to our RotoGrinders Discord and find the NFL channel!
Image Credit: Imagn