Primetime Parlay: Falcons vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Atlanta Falcons versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.
The London series kicks off in 2023 at Wembley Stadium. The Atlanta Falcons will square off with the de-facto home team in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars. A staple in England, the Jaguars look to earn a win in what should be a competitive game between two playoff hopefuls. Let’s look at the game’s betting odds, injuries, and statistics before building a same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Falcons vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay
The Falcons are three-point underdogs at Wembley Stadium with Jacksonville getting some form of “home field but not really” advantage from sports betting sites. Both teams are very much in playoff contention this season — playing in sub-par divisions. The Jaguars felt like a likely division winner after a playoff run last season, while the Falcons’ path gets a little bit less arduous with Derek Carr hurt in New Orleans.
SAO reports 82% of tickets and money rest on the Jacksonville side for this game. With a far more pronounced set of offensive players, this probably makes sense. The Jaguars will only go without Zay Jones on the outside for this game. Jacksonville will still bring a bevy of offensive weapons for Trevor Lawrence, with a resurgent Calvin Ridley joining Christian Kirk and Travis Etienne on the offensive side of the ball.
Atlanta only reports Cordarrelle Patterson as questionable. Patterson is now back to being an “offensive weapon” with Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson dominating the touches in Atlanta.
Bijan Robinson has impressed thus far as the Falcons’ first-round draft selection. The explosive running back is being used just how you would expect by a team that used so much draft stock to pick an offensive player. Tyler Allgeier remains a worthy component with just one fewer rush than the rookie. Robinson, however, leads the team in receptions — which is as much a commentary on his talent as it is on the Falcons’ offensive philosophy. If Atlanta gets going downhill on the Jaguars, Jacksonville could be in trouble.
The Jaguars have allowed 5.5 yards per play this season after getting trounced by the Texans on the defensive side of the football in Week 3. The offense is not far behind, only averaging 5 yards per play on offense this season. Rumors circulated that Doug Pederson took over play-calling last weekend. Pederson dismissed the rumors but was not kind in his assessment of the offense, claiming the efforts were “unacceptable.”
The Falcon defense has only allowed 4.7 yards per play on defense. Atlanta wants to play good defense and run the ball all game. They are averaging 30.3 rushing attempts per game.
Both teams are in the bottom third in the league in scoring. FanDuel Sportsbook posted a 43.5 over/under at the time of this writing. 56% of money and tickets lie on the under. The scoring in this game might befit the arena it is played in — with Wembley hosting soccer on its pitch. Let’s see what ParlayIQ thinks about the opening game in the London series.
Same Game Parlay Picks for London Series
- Atlanta +3
- Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
- Allgeier Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
- Kirk Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Atlanta +3
With both offenses struggling a bit to start the season and the Jaguars struggling on defense, I think getting Atlanta and the points makes sense. ParlayIQ expects this to hit in 56% of simulations — a number we all wish to attain as bettors.
Atlanta is going to continue to run the football with two capable running backs and a very mobile quarterback. If the game is close or the Falcons have a lead, expect to see a heavy dose of both running backs. The Falcons’ defense has been pretty solid to start the season and should give a struggling offense in the Jaguars fits throughout the game. In what should be a close game, give me the points every time.
Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
If our thesis is that Atlanta is going to win a close game, Bijan Robinson must be in for a productive game. In fact, ParlayIQ suggests Bijan will exceed this rushing prop in 69% of sims that feature an Atlanta cover.
This makes sense, as the Falcons drafted Robinson to be the guy. He has the most receptions on the team and leads the team in carries with 39 to start the season. Robinson is incredible with the ball in his hands and is a threat to score with every touch. Against a less-than-stellar defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Robinson lead the entire NFL in rushing across the Sunday slate of games as he did in Week 2.
Tyler Allgeier Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
So ParlayIQ thinks very highly of the Atlanta rushing attack this week.
Maybe ParlayIQ just projects plenty of work given the Falcons’ blueprint over the first few games. Allgeier has only one fewer carry than Robinson this season despite being far less effective. If Allgeier receives a similar split on Sunday morning, I expect the back to make a run at exceeding this total. ParlayIQ expects this over to happen as well given our script.
This is very good for us, as FanDuel is likely to give us a bit of a better price since the running backs correlate negatively with their production. I won’t be shocked if the odds on our ticket far exceed those that ParlayIQ suggests for this game.
Christian Kirk Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, the Jaguars will need to throw the football throughout this game. Calvin Ridley sees all the publicity on this team, but Christian Kirk continues to be the most targeted weapon for Trevor Lawrence.
Perhaps it’s the familiarity or maybe the matchups, but Kirk leads the team in targets after only seeing three targets to open the season. Kirk is always a deep threat and could see a couple of additional opportunities with Zay Jones sidelined. With A.J. Terrell likely keeping a close eye on Calvin Ridley, Trevor Lawrence could be incentivized to look Kirk’s way more throughout the game.
Falcons vs. Jaguars Parlay Odds
- Atlanta +3
- Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
- Tyler Allgeier Over 36.5 Rushing Yards
- Christian Kirk Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
ParlayIQ suggests the following price for our SGP:
Here is a look at our ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook:
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Parlay Odds: +925
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 4.62 units
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