FanDuel NFL Single-Game Strategy: Chiefs/Bears DFS Preview
Update – Damien Williams and Mecole Hardman were cleared to play, making the Demarcus Robinson / Byron Pringle calls below less enticing. I still think Robinson is a viable punt option and the best option of this trio
FanDuel has a nice single-game contest going on for the Sunday Night game featuring the Chiefs and Bears. Let’s quickly look at some of the game factors and touch on some possible roster construction options for our daily fantasy football lineups.
Be sure to check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS news and alerts before you lock in your teams!
The Game Environment
Vegas has this game with a 44.5 over/under, which would qualify for the 5th lowest total on the entire Week 16 slate. To put this into perspective, the Rams/49ers game has the same 44.5 over/under, while even the Bengals/Dolphins has a slightly higher over/under at 46.5. The big driver here is that the Bears are implied by Vegas for just 19.25 points, also the 5th lowest total out of any team this weekend. The Chiefs are solid six point road favorites and if Vegas is right, they should have a positive game script against this struggling Bears team.
The Situation
The Bears have been eliminated from the playoff hunt after a loss to Green Bay last week, leaving the 7-7 Bears with nothing left to play for. Coach Nagy did go on record saying he will continue to play the starters to evaluate personnel, so for now we have to take him at his word and assume the Bears treat this like a normal game. From an evaluation standpoint, I would think Mitchell Trubisky and David Montgomery are the two that the organization would want to continue evaluating.
The Chiefs have clinched a playoff spot and still have a shot at a 1st round bye, although they would need help from some other teams. Given a 1st round bye is on the table for them, we should expect them to continue playing hard.
The Injuries
Both teams are banged up, but the one injury we have to monitor is that of running back Damien Williams. Williams has missed the last three games with a rib injury and has practiced in limited fashion all week. We should have clarity this weekend on his official status and I’ll be sure to post at the top of the article an update once Kansas City comes out and gives us his injury designation. For now, I’m considering him questionable. With Williams out these past few weeks and Darrel Williams on I.R., Lesean McCoy, Darwin Thompson and Spencer Ware have been in a timeshare. Last week against the Broncos, Ware led the trio with a 40% snap share, while Thompson was at 35% and McCoy at 25%. Thompson, Ware and McCoy had 8, 7 and 6 carries, respectively, with nobody finding the end zone. It’s safe to assume that if Damien Williams is back, he should take back the lead running back duties and would be a major upgrade over all three of these backs.
It’s also worth noting wideout Mecole Hardman popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a glute injury. It could be nothing, but if he gets ruled out, that would be a boost for Demarcus Robinson and maybe Byron Pringle.
On the Bears side, Taylor Gabriel remains sidelined with a concussion and has been ruled out. Line backer Danny Trevathan was also placed on I.R. with an elbow injury. The loss of Gabriel has elevated Anthony Miller into a massive role on the offense, where he played on 94% of the team’s snaps last week and has now seen a total of 52 targets over his last five games, including three games with double-digit targets. Miller has also scored touchdowns now in back-to-back games and has given Allen Robinson a Robin to his Batman role.
The Plays
Patrick Mahomes – From a raw points standpoint, Mahomes projects as the highest scoring option from both teams and would be my choice as MVP if forced to make just one choice. The Bears do have the 7th ranked Pass DVOA and 10th ranked Run DVOA so this is not a good matchup on paper for any of the Chiefs, but I trust Mahomes more than I trust anyone in this Chiefs run game (even if Williams is back). Mahomes has struggled a bit in the touchdown department lately as he has just five passing touchdowns (and one rushing touchdown) over his last four games, but he did have to face the top ranked Patriots pass defense and a solid Denver defense in that stretch.
Tyreek Hill – The most obvious stacking partner with Mahomes is Hill, who continues to run as the clear #1 option in this offense. Hill dropped a 5-67-2 line last week and leads the team in receiving touchdowns (7), making him a solid option on FanDuel where it’s just a half-point per reception, making touchdowns more important. I will point out that that Hill did have a three-game scoreless streak prior to his game last week so it does feel like there’s some boom/bust potential here, which leads us to our next option.
Travis Kelce – I have no problem if you want to try and jam in both Hill and Kelce, and hope the majority of the Chiefs’ production gets soaked up by these two. Kelce has a team-high 122 targets, and to put this into perspective, Sammy Watkins is next on the team with just 83 targets. Kelce is coming off a massive game where he caught 11 of his 13 targets for 142 yards and comes with the safest floor out of all these pass catchers. If you’re expecting the Chiefs to just come out here and smash the Bears, I have no problem with the expensive Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack.
Demarcus Robinson / Byron Pringle (Only if Mecole Hardman gets ruled out) – As mentioned in the injury section, Mecole Hardman popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a glute injury. By the time you’re reading this he may be cleared as probable, but it’s worth monitoring. Hardman played on 21% of the snaps last week and should he miss the game, that may give Robinson and/or Pringle a few extra snaps. Robinson played on 56% of the snaps last week while Pringle was only at 9%. I’m listing them here only because these single-game contests have massive entrants, and you’ll often need to find a way to be different. A 3% owned Robinson or 1% owned Pringle who happens to catch a long touchdown from Mahomes is never out of the possibility and just one way to YOLO your lineups.
Anthony Miller + Mitchell Trubisky – I’m pairing Miller and Trubisky together because it makes sense to stack them as they correlate well together. If you play a Miller + Trubisky stack, you’re likely not playing a Mahomes + Hill stack or Mahomes + Kelce stack because the pricing won’t work. Just by playing a Trubisky stack with one of Miller or Allen will already make you different as I suspect most DFSers won’t side with Chicago. This stack works if you assume a negative game script for the Bears and Trubisky and company are playing from behind. If that’s the case, then it makes sense to either bring it back with a lower owned Mahomes + Watkins stack (I doubt Watkins will gain as much ownership as he hasn’t found the end zone in 10 straight games) or you’re hoping the Chief running back(s) are the ones scoring the touchdowns, in which case you’d want exposure to that part of the offense.
Thanks for reading, and good luck on Sunday. May variance be on your side.