FanDuel SportsBook MLB Plays: Wednesday, July 3rd
Most of you are either already well on your way to a long weekend or wrapping up those last few hours in the office, and what better way to spend those last few hours at the office than by jamming in some MLB bets.
We have just five days of action left before the All-Star break, so enjoy the action while it lasts. Let’s dive into the MLB odds and see where the value is!
Seattle Mariners ML +102 – Let me touch on one before we get too deep into this. In years past it would have been a big plus for Mike Leake to face a right-handed heavy lineup, but he’s actually been somewhat of a reverse splits pitcher to this point in the year. He’s allowing over 40% hard contact to righties, but the big plus for him is that he really limits the free passes – he’s walked just three RHBs in 47.2 IP against them with a 52.9 LOB% that is sure to regress positively. The Cardinals struggles with right-handed pitching have been documented all over the place over the last month and those issues are ongoing – St. Louis’ projected lineup owns a lowly .133 ISO against RHP. I’d expect the middle of the Mariners order to give Adam Wainwright some issues, so I’ll hop aboard the AL team in this one at plus money. It also doesn’t hurt that the Seattle side looks like the sharp side to be on with just 33% of the tickets on them but 51% of the total money.
Houston Astros ML -136 – The total in this one is insane (although warranted) and we’ll surely see lots of offense here, but the Astros side is the one I’ll be on. It has a lot to do with the weather – conditions appear to be about as good as we can hope for regarding offense. Peter Lambert has shown some upside, but he has leaned more fly-ball heavy and in these conditions, that’s going to be a major problem. Wade Miley does a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and while he hasn’t pitched in this park much, I’ll side with the better starter (and bullpen) here. Miley owns a ground ball rate of over 51% against both sides of the plate and he’ll get to see a few lefties in this lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +116 – Pittsburgh has taken the first two games of this series and will look to take down Yu Darvish on Wednesday night. The Pirates offense has really turned it on against RHP and given that they are a really tough team to strikeout, this could spell trouble for Darvish, who relies more heavily on strikeouts than most arms. He’s still going to deal with control issues and there are a few potent LHBs here – namely Josh Bell – who should pose trouble. It’s not all that comfortable to back Chris Archer with his command against the Cubs lineup, but at plus money I’m willing to roll the dice that he can avoid the big inning.
Los Angeles Angels ML -132 – The Angels obviously have a lot on their minds outside of baseball, and you can certainly argue that they have some added motivation to play well. As of this writing, the Rangers actually have more public tickets on them, but it’s the Angels that have a little over half of the total money. Griffin Canning gives the Halos the advantage in the starting pitching department and now that this lineup is starting to get healthy, I think they are still being a little undervalued by the public. Ariel Jurado has very little ability to miss bats, and that combined with the weather should be a major issue against Los Angeles. This is one of the scarier MLB lineups at this point.