From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook Betting in New Jersey: Monday, August 20th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this. Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Monday’s plays:
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 over (-104) 2.06 units to win 4.06
White Sox/Twins 9.5 Under (-1.21) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Indians -103 1.02 units to win 2.02
Braves +114 1 unit to win 2.14
Two team parlay: A’s (-210) plus Dodgers (-180) 1 unit to win 2.31
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7:15 ET Update
I love the A’s to do a lot of damage to the Texas pitching staff tonight, but don’t like the prospect of paying -200 for Mike Fiers at all. The total for the A’s has just moved up to 5.5, but +114 on the Over. The total for the game is 9 (-107), which is the highest price on the Over that I’m seeing anywhere. The Texas offense could be good for a couple of runs, but the Oakland bullpen is tough.
Also, although I don’t want to pay this much, despite bets being split, the Dodgers have increased nearly $30 since open. When I like a favorite that runs that high, I sometimes like using them as part of a parlay, so this is what I’m going to do:
Two team parlay: A’s (-210) plus Dodgers (-180) 1 unit to win 2.31
If I add anything late on the Oakland total, it will be posted on Twitter.
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6:45 ET Update
There will be another update after 7 PM on west coast games whether they’re played or not.
The three games that were being looked at from earlier:
- Weather risk means we could get to bullpens earlier in Minnesota and there may be a pitcher favorable umpire in that game. The total just now moved up to 9.5 as well. – The Indians have dropped slightly to -103. – The Braves have moved around a bit, but are actually a bit lower at +114 now.
One unit on each play.
White Sox/Twins 9.5 Under (-1.21) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Indians -103 1.02 units to win 2.02
Braves +114 1 unit to win 2.14
Be back around before 8pm ET with updates on potential west cost action.
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5 PM ET Update
With Gausman now scratched, the line for the Pirates is now increasing, while Bryse Wilson may not necessarily be a downgrade for the Braves. He’s an interesting arm who has blazed a path through three levels of minors this season. Archer is vulnerable. Let’s see if the public can bet this line up. Wilson has even been going deep into games in the minors, but Atlanta has the better pen too.
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4:30 ET Update
Just a quick note to say that I’m hoping to see Cleveland turn into the dog here. Kluber hasn’t been the same pitcher as last season, but is still clearly the superior option to Porcello where there’s not enough difference in the lineup or bullpen (Cleveland has actually been the better unit over the last month) for Boston to be favored here. Bets seem split at this point, but the DraftKings Sportsbook currently has both sides at -108, which is around $5 higher than I’m seeing Cleveland anywhere else.
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4:15 ET Update
The Blue Jays may be correctly valued, but potentially even under-valued at about five runs against Cashner and this terrible bullpen. They may get this done on their own. However, as poor as the Baltimore offense is, they could contribute too, if necessary, against Estrada, who has an ERA and estimators around five this year. Despite an above average K-BB%, the Toronto bullpen is also just one of three above a five FIP over the last month. I really like this game to go over nine quite a bit. Even if the starters keep it competitive for a while, the pens could explode.
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 over (-104) 2.06 units to win 4.06
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4pm ET Update
I’m looking at Minnesota as a potentially interesting spot. Lucas Giolito has improved peripherals over the last month. The Twins have an implied run line above five and that could be a bit aggressive. Stephen Gonsalves makes his debut in a great spot. He’s seemed to overcome control issues at AAA over the last month. There’s always the risk, but he’s being put into a spot to succeed. The line for the Twins has actually dropped despite getting more than half the bets, which is a bit concerning. The overall total is nine though and rising in some spots to 9.5. The DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the under at 9 (-103). I’m waiting to see if it increases and do think the offenses here could be a bit overvalued. Kevin’s early forecast gives pitchers a slight bump too with moderate winds coming in from left. Let’s wait and see.
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Friday recap:
Red Sox 5.5 Over (+114) 1 unit to win 2.14 – W +1.14
Tigers/Twins 8.5 Under (-103) 1.02 units to win 2.02 – L -1.02
Day Total 1-1 +0.12 units
Grand Total 7-10-1 -1.44 units
Sides 2-4 +0.7 units
Totals 5-5-1 -0.14 units
Parlays 0-1 -2 units
On our way to an easy 2-0, the Twins and Tigers had scored just two runs through five and just four through six when Joe Mauer, of all people, hit a three run homer in the seventh. Still 5-3 in the ninth with two down and the eighth place hitter (441 OPS) down to his last strike before delivering the death blow against the bottom of the Minnesota pen, in to close. These bullpens are killing me. I’ve got to start incorporating first five inning plays.
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A situation I knew was imminent almost occurred for the first time last week. It eventually will and there may be questions about conflict of interest.
Everything we do in daily fantasy and sports betting is based on price. Daily fantasy is cost-intensive to a certain point, but sports betting is even more so. For example, we can know the top overall pitcher or hitter on a given day and opt not to use him if the price is too high. However, lineup construction permitting, players may still consider rostering a top overall player who is adequately or even overpriced. Ownership projections often have something to do with that and it may not be incorrect to do so.
Alternatively, this never should happen in sports betting. There is no reason anyone should ever bet an overpriced favorite. Or an underpriced dog for that matter.
Consequently, the situation is very likely to occur where I’ll write up a pitcher I believe to be a good or great value in a pitching article or even a lineup with some value bats in alerts, but then ultimately also end up wagering against that side in this article. It’s all about pricing. Players can provide potential value in daily fanstasy, while the sportsbook line can provide value in the opposite direction. It may sometimes seem confusing among first glance, seeing a write up one side in one article, but then the opposite side in another. It doesn’t necessarily mean a changing of the mind or hedging of bets.
A trap I can’t fall into either is bypassing a strong play (or my perception of one) because I positively wrote up players on the other side of it earlier in the day. Everyone has a price, no? When you take a team at plus money, it doesn’t necessarily mean you think they’re going to win that day. You do think they win often enough in that scenario to profit though. It’s certainly possible to like the pitcher from Team A in a daily fantasy sense, but think Team B wins more often than the line is giving them credit for.
The real conflict here is mostly in rooting interest once the game starts. You always want to do well for readers, whether you ultimately have much of a financial interest in the outcome or not, but when there’s value in both sides of a matchup, something usually has to eventually give. Sometimes it works both ways and you “catch a middle”, but usually not. You may ultimately want the daily fantasy pitcher to have a strong showing, but if he does too well, you then risk not cashing your bet.
This situation is bound to happen and hopefully this explains the reasoning behind it.