From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Tuesday, August 28th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Royals/Tigers 8.5 Under (100) 1.5 units to win 3
Nationals/Phillies 7.5 Over (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02
Two Team Parlay: Dodgers & Astros +110 1 unit to win 2.10
Nationals -118 1.18 units to win 2.18
Orioles +114 1 unit to win 2.14
Rays +114 1 unit to win 2.14
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6:45 ET Update
Adding a few more games mostly from what I’ve been seeing from line movement, or lack of it. I’ve been watching these lines for most of the day and despite more bets coming in on the favorite, the line either hasn’t increased or has moved slightly the other way for the Orioles and Rays. Both teams in Baltimore are starting rookie lefties with one combined major league starts and a combined three batters above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year. The Baltimore pen is atrocious, but they are also the dog here at home with what looks to be minor reverse line movement. Also, the red hot Rays are in Atlanta, taking the short end of it, yet with no line movement. I’ve also been staring at Max Scherzer at -118 all day. In the first matchup, I won with Nola as a fairly sizable dog. Scherzer is the better pitcher though and isn’t much more than a pick’em here.
Nationals -118 1.18 units to win 2.18
Orioles +114 1 unit to win 2.14
Rays +114 1 unit to win 2.14
Like last night, any further updates on west coast games will be posted on Twitter @FreelanceBBall
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5:30 ET Update
This is a bit difficult for me to understand, but it does make some sense. You have Nola against Scherzer. You’ve got a large majority of the action, understandably, coming in on the Under, yet the line is moving upwards. Why might that be? Premium subscribers may have noticed an extreme hitter’s umpire in that game (and if not, that’s your bonus info for reading this article). Kevin’s forecast also labels this as one of several games with ideal hitting conditions. The Nationals also have one of the worst pens in the majors over the last month, not that they should see much action, but those could be some reasons the line is moving opposite the bets here.
Nationals/Phillies 7.5 Over (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02
I hate playing high priced favorites, but when I find two I really like, I’m not against a small parlay. The Dodgers are breaking all the scales tonight. They have a major advantage in every area over Texas. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton has a wide range of potential outcomes, but most of them are superior to Edwin Jackson.
Two Team Parlay: Dodgers & Astros +110 1 unit to win 2.10
Will be back with one more update before early games lock whether or not there’s an additional play.
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5 PM ET Update
It’s taken a while to update today, not because I haven’t found anything I’ve liked, but because none of the things I’m interested in are at prices I’m interested in them at so far. Here’s the first one. Jakob Junis has a 26.1 K% and 3.5 SIERA over the last month. He’s very home run prone, but hasn’t allowed one in four starts and is facing a weak lineup (< 9 HR/FB vs RHP). Matt Boyd is a top contact manager, as I’ve written in a couple of places on this site today and the Kansas City lineup is atrocious. They send out seven batters at or below a 75 wRC+ and .115 ISO vs LHP this year. The bullpens are a bit scary here, but again and could cause me to buy out if it’s close late, but again, these lineups are atrocious.
Royals/Tigers 8.5 Under (100) 1.5 units to win 3
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Yesterday’s recap:
Phillies 4.5 Over (+115) 1 unit to win 2.15 L – 1
Nationals/Phillies 9 Over (-105) 1.04 units to win 2.04 L – 1.04
Phillies +102 1 unit to win 2.02 L – 1
Blue Jays/Orioles 9.5 Over (-109) 1.09 to win 2.09 L – 1.09
Athletics +170 1 unit to win 2.70 L -1
Angels +120 1 unit to win 2.20 (added via “Twitter”:https://twitter.com/FreelanceBBall/status/1034258241130258433) W +1.2
Day Total 1-5 -3.93
Grand Total 19-27-1 -6.10 units
Sides 10-13 1.14 units
Totals 10-14-1 -5.85 units
Parlays 1-2 -1.39 units
With the Orioles scoring seven, we needed just three runs by the Blue Jays against David Hess and the worst bullpen in baseball. They scored none. Bombed on all three counts with the Phillies. It seems that much like in life, they’re going to be my bane in this endeavor. At least Oakland jumped out to a 4-0 lead…then they gave up 11 without scoring again. The Angels had a late lead, blew it by way of an eighth inning grand slam, but then scored five of their own in the bottom of the inning to win it.
I had thought that totals were going to be the DFS player’s strength early in the transitioning to sports betting. I have a suspicion that my GPP mindset could be a detriment in this area and want to explore that further in a future article.
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Yesterday, Sugar House was introduced (use promo code: GRINDERS), the newest online sportsbook in New Jersey and today we’ll continue the review and comparison to the DraftKings sportbook.
While I had hoped that competition meant the ability to line shop, it looks like both books are using the exact same feed. All lines for all sports, right down to the vig appear the same, as well as live lines once games start, as mentioned yesterday. While this is a minor disappointment, perhaps it was a necessity of getting up and running earlier than other sites. I’d expect future sites, of which there should be many, to offer competitive lines.
One appeal that I’ve found for Sugar House, quite by accident in fact, is that players don’t need to be logged in to see lines. This is a welcome feature as the state seems to require that players need to be logged out after a certain period of inactivity. It’s a small thing, but not having to sign in constantly to see line updates is a definite plus.
Another minor feature that’s a very useful addition is that of a search box. When you know exactly what you’re looking for, the ability to type it in and go straight to it rather than click around looking for it can be a time saver when you’re placing last minute or live bets.
During line betting, I’ve also noticed that they list the number of game props available right next to the main line and when lines change, they have a red arrow to show when a line decreases and a green arrow for increases.
Custer service is quick to respond via chat. The wait time was minuscule and the chat box carries through to whatever screen you’re on, so you can continue with whatever action you like while chatting with support.
In fact, the only minor nuisance I’ve found so far is that there’s a drop down menu to go from Moneyline to Total to Run Line or Spread. All three are not available in the same view.