From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Wednesday, August 29th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
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Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Orioles -117 1.16 units to win 2.16
Nationals/Phillies 9 Under (-105) -1.04 units to win 2.04
Pirates/Cardinals 8 Under (-117) 1.16 units to win 2.16
Pirates +138 1 unit to win 2.38
Dodgers/Rangers 9.5 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03
Updates after 7pm ET will come from Twitter (@FreelanceBBall).
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7PM ET Update
No more plays for right now, but a couple of things to note. Several lines seemed to have moved against me since the last post, but that hasn’t happened yet specifically on DraftKings/SugarHill.
The other thing is that I’m seeing possible reverse line movement on the Rays as well, but there are too many factors I don’t like in that spot, including potential weather issues (which probably do hurt Atlanta more than TB). If there is a delay and Newcomb can’t continue, it might be something to look at in game.
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6 PM ET Update
A few more plays for a couple of 8pm games. One entirely based on line/money movement, one strategy based and one a combination of both. First the game in St Louis. Two contact prone, but weak contact prone pitchers in a negative run environment against marginal lineups with only a few quality bats. I like Under 8. Secondly, for some odd reason, the line has slightly decreased in this game despite the action seeming to lean heavily towards the home team, who are red hot. Are the Pirates under-priced? Not on DraftKings, where they’re several dollars below everywhere else, but in general, they seem to be. Lastly, Alex Wood dominates LHBs (.261 wOBA, 29.7 Hard%, 56.6 GB%), yet the Rangers balance their lineup with four LHBs. Mike Minor isn’t terrible either. The Dodgers should score a few runs, but they shouldn’t run over the total on their own. This is also a total that has decreased since open despite what looks to be a split on the action.
Pirates/Cardinals 8 Under (-117) 1.16 units to win 2.16
Pirates +138 1 unit to win 2.38
Dodgers/Rangers 9.5 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03
This may be the last update here for today unless something strange pops up. Any post-7pm lock updates will be posted on Twitter @FreelanceBBall, as has been the case the last couple of days.
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5:45 ET Update
Despite the favorable hitting conditions and two under-performing pitchers in this game, I think a few factors lead to an under in Philly tonight. Bryce Harper is out of the lineup and Jake Arrieta generally keeps RHBs grounded (55.7 GB%, .270 wOBA this year). He’s been knocked around in two of his last three starts, but has a hard hit rate below 20% in three of his last four. There’s also an umpire with a slight pitcher lean in this game. Gio Gonzalez has been bad and struggles with RHBs, but the Phillies only have a couple of guys who have really hammered RHPs this year. I think this total should be a run lower and Harper’s absence is significant here. Although, considering I’m now wagering on two of the worst pens in baseball so far, this could be another early buyout opportunity late in the game.
Nationals/Phillies 9 Under (-105) -1.04 units to win 2.04
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5PM ET Update
Alex Cobb has gone five straight starts of at least six innings with two runs or less. He has a 12.6 K-BB%, 49 GB% and -1.9 Hard-Soft% this month. The Blue Jays opened as -117 favorites, but now the Orioles are -117 favorites (on DraftKings, they’re a few dollars less everywhere else) despite not even getting half the bets in this game. The public probably still sees Cobb as a terrible pitcher and the O’s as a terrible team (which they are). I like Cobb in this game, but could find myself buying out once the bullpen gets involved.
Orioles -117 1.16 units to win 2.16
Was also leaning towards the Braves, but not liking what I’m seeing with line movement and money flow in that game.
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Yesterday’s recap:
Royals/Tigers 8.5 Under (100) 1.5 units to win 3 W +1.5
Nationals/Phillies 7.5 Over (+102) 1 unit to win 2.02 W +1.02
Two Team Parlay: Dodgers & Astros +110 1 unit to win 2.10 L -1
Nationals -118 1.18 units to win 2.18 W +1
Orioles +114 1 unit to win 2.14 W +1.14
Rays +114 1 unit to win 2.14 L -1
And three more added via Twitter last night.
Angels +106 1 unit to win 2.06 L -1
Rockies/Angels 8.5 Under (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14 W +1
Padres 100 1 unit to win 2 W +1
Day Total 6-3 +3.66
Grand Total 25-30-1 -2.44 units
Sides 13-15 2.28 units
Totals 13-14-1 -2.33 units
Parlays 1-3 -2.39 units
Baltimore was the only easy one early, probably not something often said this year. Most of the other early games were decided late, including the suck out with the Nationals and Over. Late games were close except for the easy win on the total, but they never switched leads from first score.
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First, a quick note to mention that there will be no day game plays today, as I’ll be out of contact for a few hours.
I briefly mentioned yesterday a possible detrimental effect of a DFS GPP mindset on playing totals. I’m not going to suggest that this epiphany led to a 3-0 sweep on totals on Tuesday because two of those were not looking good for most of the game, but I am considering some mistakes that may have been made in that mindset.
Being contrarian is a popular and often correct strategy for DFS GPPs. When you’re trying to beat thousands of other entries, a hive mindset may not get you very far. Here’s the thing though: you know that contrarian play is going to make you lose more often than you win. You expect it. But when you do win, it can be enough to put you in profit for a month or even a season.
There are benefits to being contrarian or fading the public in sports betting as well. This is generally more specifically with larger dogs, which you don’t have to win all the time. However, there are a couple of key differences and not fully realizing them may have led to some mistakes.
In GPPs, you’re attempting to beat a large field of players. In sports betting, you have one opponent: the book. As mentioned, when playing large dogs, you don’t even have to win nearly half of the time, but totals are a different story. Most of them come with a negative price tag. It’s fair to say, you need to be right a majority of the time to profit.
On Monday night, I loved the Phillies to score a lot of runs against a potentially injured Stephen Strasburg and struggling Washington bullpen. They did not. Why did I think Strasburg may have still been injured? His velocity was down while the Phillies smacked him around in his first start back from the DL. I played some Philly lineups in DFS too.
Was this the correct sports betting thought process though? If the Phillies hammer Strasburg again, I probably do well in GPPs because “nobody’s on them”. That’s probably correct from a DFS standpoint, but why should I care if anybody’s on the total for the Phillies or the game sports betting wise?
In order to make a profitable bet, I had to project that Strasburg is probably still injured and more likely than not to give up some runs again. This probably wasn’t the case. For GPP success, I’m comfortable projecting something to happen 10-20% of the time occasionally. Believing there’s a decent chance something might happen is not enough, especially when laying money on totals. It’s necessary to be able to confidently project it to happen more often than not and perhaps even much more often.
This now seems like such an obvious lesson that may have cost a few “units” to learn this year.