NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: DraftKings Picks for Giants-49ers
NFL Showdown season continues with the Giants vs. 49ers on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
Both teams are coming into this game with some winning momentum, as the Giants had one of the biggest comebacks in their team’s history against the Cardinals last week, coming back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win 31-28. The 49ers had a back-and-forth game with the Rams, but pulled away late to win 30-23, and now are tied with Miami as the third highest scoring team of the year. The RBs are the biggest stories this game, as Saquon Barkley sprained his ankle last week and will be out Thursday. Christian McCaffrey is making an early case for MVP with over 300 total yards on the year already, including 2 TDs, and he and Ekeler are the only RBs averaging over 100 rush yds/game. Brandon Aiyuk is also pretty iffy this game as he deals with a shoulder injury, and for now, I’m working under the assumption that he and Barkley will be out this game, or at best active and not close to 100%.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Giants vs. 49ers Week 3
Currently, this game is sitting at a 44 total with the 49ers favored by 10 points. This line is screaming for another McCaffrey blowup game, as the 49ers should have the lead for the majority of the time, and may need to lean on the run game more if Aiyuk sits. The Giants have also allowed the second-most rushing TDs on the year (5), the 8th highest YPC (4.6), and the 7th most rush yards (273). This isn’t to say that Purdy, Samuel, or even Kittle could be top plays, but McCaffrey is the clear #1 play for cash games. The Giants are a bit more interesting as they’ll need to rely on the passing game against a tough 49ers run D, so the Jones/Waller combo should be very busy, while all of Hodgins/Slayton/Campbell/Hyatt are looking at more targets with Barkley out.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy has yet to attempt 30 passes in a game this year, which has led to FP outputs of just 17.8 and 14.74. As big home favorites, I’m worried the game script will lead to a similar output for Purdy, so he isn’t a must-play in cash games for me. If you’re doing MME, I would certainly make some Purdy/Samuel/Kittle stacks if Aiyuk is out, and especially on any lineups you build without McCaffrey. I also don’t mind doing some Purdy/CMC stacks in GPPs, as we know those short dump offs to McCaffrey can go for long TDs.
Daniel Jones is a must-play in cash games for me, as he will likely have to throw 40+ times this game playing from behind. He also brings a pretty high floor with his rushing ability, and that will also have to increase with no Barkley, so make sure to have plenty of Jones across GPPs and some captain spots, along with your cash game lineup in a flex spot, assuming CMC is your captain there.
Running Back
I’ve pretty much covered how high I am on Christian McCaffrey this game, as he will 100% be in my captain spot for cash games. There just isn’t anyone like him in football right now, as he’s averaging 24 touches per game and over 150 total yards per game, and his floor/ceiling combo can’t be matched by any skill player in this game outside of maybe Samuel if Aiyuk sits. CMC is going to be the highest-owned player in GPPs, so make sure to have at least a few lineups without him that go heavier on the 49ers passing game, along with at least one or two lineups with Eli Mitchell just in case.
With Barkley out, Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell will be tasked to carry the RB load, but neither are priced cheap enough for me to consider in cash games, but both can certainly be sprinkled on a few GPP teams, with Breida the higher upside play as the starter.
Wide Receiver
Assuming our main build has started with CMC at captain and Jones in a flex spot, this leaves us with $5,000/flex spot remaining, so we’re going to need to start searching for the right value plays. Aiyuk is off my radar at $8,600, while Deebo Samuel at $8,800 is going to be hard to fit on any CMC/Jones builds unless you use CMC in a flex spot. I prefer using Samuel on lineups that include Purdy but don’t include CMC for max leverage along with optimal salary allocation, as there just aren’t any players I’m interesting in for under $3k outside of maybe Shepard or Bellinger in a GPP lineup if you’re doing MME. Jauan Jennings ($4,800) has only seen 4 total targets this year, but if Aiyuk is out, I would definitely use him on a couple GPP teams with Purdy, as he should still be very low-owned.
The Giants’ most expensive WR is Isaiah Hodgins ($6,400), while Parris Campbell ($4,400) is their cheapest playable cash game WR. Darius Slayton ($5,600) is between them in price and has seen the most targets (11) on the year, but for the price, I’m leaning towards Campbell as my favorite WR to pair with Jones, as he has seen 10 targets on the year and will make it much easier to fit in CMC at captain. Jalin Hyatt ($5,200) is also in a similar price range, but with just 3 targets on the year, I’m only considering him as a GPP play, along with Shepard ($1,000). Basically, these NYG WRs are going to be hard to trust/predict all season, so I will usually favor the cheapest of the top three if I need to fill a final flex spot in cash games, while mixing and matching a couple of them with Jones in GPPs is a fine strategy if you’re building a lot of lineups.
Tight End
Darren Waller ($7,400) is the seventh most expensive player, and by far my favorite pass-catcher to pair with Jones in cash games. Waller leads the team in targets (13), and if the Giants have any shot of keeping this game competitive, I’m expecting Waller to be the main reason. The pass rush of the 49ers should lead to more quick, short throws for Jones, which is Waller’s bread and butter, and I’d even have some Waller captain lineups in GPPs.
George Kittle ($6,600) has been quiet to begin the year with lines of just 3-19-0 and 3-30-0 the first two weeks, so I will only be using him in GPP lineups as a stack with Purdy. Even if Aiyuk is out I think Kittle is just a bit too expensive to trust for cash games, especially with the potential game script of the 49ers dominating and just running the ball a bunch.
Defense/Special Teams
Jake Moody and the 49ers DST are both looking like great ways to save salary in cash games, as I’m expecting around 10 FP floors for each and about 20 FP ceilings. Moody is my favorite between the two at just $4,200, as SF should be in FG range almost every drive, and Moody has the leg for 55-60 yard attempts. We saw what the Dallas D did to the Giants in Week 1, so I’d make sure to have at least a couple of lineups with the 49ers D in the captain spot if you’re doing MME.
The Giants DST is cheap at $3,200, but with games of -1 FP in each of the first two weeks, it’s hard to expect much better against one of the top offenses in football. The same goes for Graham Gano ($4,000), who has just 4 total FP through two weeks and is off my radar.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
If you’re going heaviest on CMC, Jones, Waller, and Moody, it’s actually looking like a lot of 4-2 NYG stacks and 3-3 splits are builds that fit the available salaries. Moving CMC to a flex spot will open up more potential SF 4-2 stacks along with higher-priced players in the 3-3 builds, but I just think he has too high of a ceiling not to captain him in cash games. GPP strategy should be to have a variety of NYG WR combos with Jones, along with some lineups with the Purdy-CMC stack and the Purdy-Samuel-Kittle stack if Aiyuk is out. I also like mixing in some Jones, Waller, Samuel, and 49ers DST in the captain spots if you’re doing MME.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Christian McCaffrey – Can’t overstate how much of a smash spot this is for him, and he will rightfully be the highest owned player in all formats.
2. Daniel Jones – By far the best NYG player for cash games with no Barkley, and his rushing ability gives him a great floor/ceiling combo.
3. Darren Waller – Too cheap at $7,400 as the top pass catcher for Jones, who should see a bump in targets with Barkley out.
4. Jake Moody – Excellent salary saver at $4,200 with b2b games of 14 FP. Should have plenty of long opportunities and extra points.
5. Parris Campbell / 49ers DST – Both are great ways to save salary in lineups, with Campbell my favorite NYG WR for the price.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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