New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright?
Yep. Cincinnati controlled the game, outplaying Buffalo once again. They pretty much have their number at this point. Assuming Ja’Marr Chase’s injury isn’t too bad, this team is poised to make another deep playoff run.
Split the props. Thank goodness we grabbed the alternate line on Chicago’s point total, as it landed right at 17. Jonathan Taylor got plenty of work, but was largely inefficient. Decent process there, just didn’t get the production.
How about the public?
Our guy
Chuck_Wright5</a> moved to 5-3 last week with Miami's easy cover. <br><br>Week 9 article: <a href="https://t.co/ADsu7Zvw90">https://t.co/ADsu7Zvw90</a><br><br>Is Charlie Wright?</p>— RotoGrinders (RotoGrinders) November 3, 2023
Well done! Back to .500 for the people.
Records after Week 9
- Charlie: 6-3
- Prop Picks: 10-8
- The Public: 3-3-1
Week 10 Pick: Dallas -16.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
Reason: Dallas only plays blowouts.
The Cowboys obviously have a massive advantage facing off against Tommy Devito and what’s left of the Giants’ offense. The key is whether the team in this position is capable of dominating, not just winning comfortably. We’re frequently annoyed by a handful of top teams who are often big favorites, but don’t cover (looking at you, Chiefs).
Baltimore against Arizona in Week 8 is a good example. The Ravens thoroughly outclassed the Cardinals and were never in danger of losing, but didn’t dominate to the degree necessary to cover the big spread. Sure, if Nelson Agholor recovers that onside kick, Baltimore covers. That’s the point, though. We’re looking for teams that don’t even allow it to come to an onside kick.
Dallas played a tight one against Philadelphia last week, one of the only times all season they’ve had a close game. Their average margin of victory is 24.2 points, while their average margin of defeat is 16.3 points. Fox dropped a preposterous stat during Sunday’s broadcast, pointing out that Dallas had just one lead change through seven games, which feels impossible.
This team typically wins big when they win, and loses big when they lose. They’re going to beat the Giants, and they’ve proved that they’re the type of team that can cover a double-digit spread.
Would make sure to grab this at 16.5 where available, instead of 17 or 17.5, just in case.
PICK: Dallas -16.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
NFL Player Props for Week 10
Brock Purdy Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Purdy just endured the worst stretch of his career, losing three straight while throwing five interceptions. He managed just one touchdown in each game. But San Francisco is coming off a bye, should have Deebo Samuel back, and gets an excellent matchup. Jacksonville is 30th in passing yards allowed per game. Only two teams have allowed more attempts (Baltimore and Philadelphia), but they’ve played one more game. Tight spread too, so Purdy should see plenty of volume in a good matchup.
Rachaad White Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-120 on BetMGM)
Think we’re getting a light number here due to Tennessee’s solid numbers against running backs in the receiving game, but there’s a significant volume factor there. The Titans have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to RBs, but they’ve also seen the 3rd-fewest targets. Tennessee is just outside the top 10 in highest yards allowed per reception, so they’ve been vulnerable when they’ve allowed catches, there just hasn’t been many of them. White has averaged 5+ targets over the past four games. If he sees that here, he should have a solid day in the receiving game.
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