Golf Betting Picks: The 2019 BMW Championship

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal online sports betting? Click the following link to bet golf props at Monkey Knife Fight. Our two favorite prop bets for Round 1 are Brooks Koepka Over 4.5 Birdies and Jon Rahm Under 69.6 Strokes.

Read more about golf betting strategies for Monkey Knife Fight in our PGA Golf Betting Tips Guide.

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The first of three legs for the FedEx Cup Playoffs are over as Patrick Reed came out ahead at The Northern Trust. Reed’s win pushes him to No. 2 in the FedEx Cup standings, behind only Brooks Koepka.

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Fifty-five of last week’s 125 golfers head home for a short break before the 2019-20 PGA Tour season begins. The remaining 70 players make their way to Medinah Country Club for the 2019 BMW Championship as they continue to battle for the $15M first-place FedEx Cup prize.

After Medinah, 30 golfers will be left for the final stage of the FedEx Cup Playoffs: The Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club.

But first things first. Let’s break down this week’s course and golf odds as we bring you PGA golf betting tips and golf betting picks for the 2019 BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.

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2019 BMW Championship Course — Medinah Country Club

If you’re a long-time golf fan, you’re probably familiar with Medinah Country Club and Europe’s historic comeback victory, also known as the Miracle at Medinah, from the 2012 Ryder Cup. If you’re a newer golf fan introduced to the game via sports betting and DFS, or if you’ve successfully erased 2012 from your memory, then there’s a lot to learn about Medinah Country Club as it’s not a typical staple on the PGA Tour calendar.

The last time Medinah Country Club hosted a stroke-play event was the 2006 PGA Championship. Medinah played host to four other majors before 2006.

A bit different from last week’s track, Medinah Country Club is a Par 72 stretching over 7,600 yards. Medinah has bentgrass greens, and while length off the tee is important to set up scoring opportunities on what should be receptive greens, golfers will also need to avoid the lush Kentucky bluegrass rough that will be over 4 inches long.

“That’s our real protector. It’s thick and it’s very gnarly. If the rough is up 4-plus inches, I would say my guess is probably going to be 15- to 17-under for four days.” - Marty Deangelo, director of golf at Medinah Country Club (via DailyHerald.com)

In terms of distance, Medinah is a lot longer than recent stops on Tour, but a lot of the distance comes from two Par 5s that are over 600 yards. The other two play at least 575 yards. 

Elsewhere you’ll find a quartet of long Par 3s, the shortest being 192 yards. Most of the Par 4s are right-to-left doglegs that force players to play strategic and lay up rather than trying to knock dimples off the golf ball.

For more on how Medinah might play, check out some of these quotes from 2012 that Rotoworld’s Josh Culp dug up: 

“I think with the way the holes dogleg, some of them, it takes driver out of your hand on some holes. I think I used a driver maybe six or seven times today. For a course that’s 7,500, there’s a lot of par 4s out there, you’re not hitting driver, you’re hitting 3 wood or 2 iron the way the holes angle. I really don’t think length is a huge factor.” – Luke Donald

“I’m not going to hit that many drivers because it won’t really allow me to. Most of the holes are doglegged. Obviously I’d have to take driver up over the top of these tall trees, and it doesn’t make any sense. Yeah, I’m going to use it a few times, definitely. But overall, just like it was back in ’99, I hit just a bunch of 2 irons and a bunch of 3 woods here. Just because that’s the way the golf course allowed you to play. You play to a lot of the corners and obviously fire from there.” – Tiger Woods

“The majority of the length comes from the long par 3s, and the long par 5s. And then the long par 4s always seem like you’re landing it on a downslope.” – Lucas Glover

Golf Betting Favorites at the 2019 BMW Championship

The best golfers on Tour are primed to succeed at Medinah. Those golfers include 
online sports betting favorites like Brooks Koepka +800, Rory McIlroy +850, Jon Rahm +1100, Dustin Johnson +1600 and Justin Thomas +1600 (FandDuel). Other favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook are Adam Scott +2200 and Patrick Cantlay +2200.

If you’re a regular reader of our Golf Betting Picks article, then you know I don’t typically bet on guys at the top of the board. The winners we’ve picked throughout the year have been 80-1 (Woodland at the U.S. Open), 66-1 (Reavie at the Travelers Championship) and 135-1 (Wolff at the 3M Open). However, I will be betting on Dustin Johnson +1600 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) this week.

Johnson showed signs of life early last week, shooting a 63 and a 67 in the first two rounds at The Northern Trust. Unfortunately for Johnson, he followed up with rounds of 74 and 73. The good news? We still get him at +1600, a price he’s only been three times over the past two seasons according to golfodds.com. Johnson has eight victories over that same span. 

Johnson’s last victory came in February at the WGC Mexico, but if he can stop giving strokes away on the green — something he’s done in each of his last six tournaments — then I like Johnson to take advantage of these long Par 5s to put himself in contention come Sunday. Don’t be fooled; Johnson is still one of the top three golf talents in the world. 

The other golfer I’d consider in this range is Patrick Cantlay +2200 (FanDuel). Since mid-May, Cantlay has one victory and has finished outside of the Top 15 only twice in nine tournaments. Cantlay is top-notch in approach shots from 175-200 yards, a focal distance on Medinah’s doglegs.

The 2019 BMW Championship Mid-Tier Odds

I hate taking golfers who just won, and not necessarily because of the “victory hangover,” but because their value typically plummets right after they win. Last week, Patrick Reed was around +5000, and now he’s +2800 at DraftKings. That won’t stop me from hoping for a back-to-back winner this time. 

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Reed +2800 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) has been known to get streaky. He might be one of the most hated guys on Tour, but he’s also one of the most competitive. With seven wins under his belt and $15M in front of him, I’m hardly afraid of a hangover. 

Moreover, Medinah’s right-to-left doglegs set up great for Reed’s draw off the tee. Nine golfers are ahead of Reed at DraftKings while he’s +2200 and No. 7 on the board at BetStars. I don’t mind waiting to see if this number drops a bit once cash starts coming in on other golfers in the field, though. 

Speaking of hated golfers, let’s talk about Bryson DeChambeau +5000 (DraftKings). DeChambeau finished T24 at The Northern Trust after fellow golfers called the 25-year-old out for his slow play. DCchambeau gained strokes tee-to-green but couldn’t get ahead of the field when it came to putting. DeChambeau had a runner-up and an eighth-place finish in the weeks leading up to his missed cut at The Open. +5000 is a solid price at DraftKings, but I also don’t mind waiting to see where his odds move as I can see him being as unpopular with bettors as he is with his peers.

The final mid-tier golfer I like is Xander Schauffele +4500 (DraftKings). Similar to Dustin Johnson, this is the best price we’ve seen for Schauffele all season even with the field nearly cut in half! Sure, his form isn’t great after a missed cut last week, but it was less than two months ago that Schauffele finished third at the U.S. Open. Schauffele has a knack for showing up in big events. This week isn’t a major, but he’s sitting 7th in the FedEx Cup leaderboard, and there’s $15M on the line.

Golf Betting Longshots at the 2019 BMW Championship

We’ll go back to a couple of longshot bets I liked a week ago while adding one more to the fold.

I’ll stick with Gary Woodland +7500 (DraftKings). A few days before The Northern Trust, Woodland said he was hitting the ball the best he has since winning the U.S. Open, but he finished a disappointing T52. I’ll take the same odds we were getting at The Northern Trust in this shortened field. 

As we pointed out before the U.S. Open, Woodland has a filthy stinger that he can utilize off the tee. He’ll put it to use on these Par 4s. No. 17 in proximity from 150-175 yards and No. 6 from 175-200, the course should set up nicely for the new father of twins. There’s plenty of incentive for Woodland who currently sits in ninth place on the FedEx Cup leaderboard.

Yes, you guessed it. We’re going back to Corey Conners +17500 (use our BetStars promo code to get these odds). I don’t know how many weeks in a row I’ve included him in our longshots, but I know it’s a lot. You already know how great Conners is nearly everywhere but around/on the green. It’s slightly alarming that he didn’t gain strokes off the tee last week. Conners is no longer +25000, but he does have two Top-25 finishes in a row. I’ll be damned if I don’t bet a little bit on him and he finally pulls the rabbit out of his hat.

Finally, let me welcome the newest member of the club, Ryan Moore +8000 (BetStars). Moore has back-to-back T18s despite losing 2.5 strokes with his putter last week. He gained 8.8 strokes tee-to-green at The Northern Trust and 7 strokes at the John Deere. Moore is No.6 in field proximity from 175-200 yards and has the upside to make a weekend run for the BMW Championship.

And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is the Editor of Sports Betting Content for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball, football and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.

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