Golf Betting Picks: A Military Tribute at the Greenbrier
After a short break, golf is back for the fall swing. That means new names on the golf betting board at online sports betting sites. More than one-fourth of the field is playing the Greenbrier for the first time, and many golfers are making their PGA Tour debut.
Not only are there new faces, but there’s also a new cut rule. Previously, the top 70 golfers made the cut, but PGA Tour decided to takes one out of the Euro Tour’s playbook, shortening the number to the top 65 and ties with no MDFs on Saturday. The change has a bigger impact on DFS than it does golf betting.
Last time we looked at golf betting picks we ended up sweating Chez Reavie at +10000 odds at the Tour Championship. In general, I prefer taking advantage of the inherent variance in golf and betting on longshots. Just look at last season’s winners:
Let’s try to start the season off right with another winner.
Course Preview — The Old White TPC
The Old White TPC can be found surrounded by the Allegheny Mountains of West Virginia, not far from White Sulphur Springs in Greenbrier County, W.V. Though the view features mountainous terrain, The Old White TPC is a classic golf course, and golfers will be hitting from flat lies throughout the 7,300-yard Par 70 track.
The field will only encounter two Par 5s, both of which come on the back nine. No. 12 is 568 yards and No. 17 stretches to 616 yards. Historically, the two holes have been the easiest on the course, welcoming their fair share of birdies.
As for the four Par 3s, three of them are over 200 yards with hole No. 8 and No. 15 at just around 230 yards. The course ends with a 177-yard Par 3 thanks as the 14th toughest hole. 85 sand bunkers and 9 water hazards will try to trip up a rather inexperienced field.
The last time golfers teed up at The Greenbrier it was Kevin Na who walked away with the win. Na shot 19-under for a 5-stroke margin of victory last July. Making a move on the PGA Tour schedule, this is the first time the Greenbrier has commenced a new PGA Tour season.
Preceding Na, winners included Xander Schauffelle (-14), Danny Lee (-13), Angel Cabrera (-13), Jonas Blixt (-13), Ted Potter Jr. (-16), Scott Stallings (-10), and Stuart Appleby (-22).
As you can see, this is not a course that gives a distinct advantage to bombers. Golfers have the luxury of hitting irons off the tee to ensure playing from the fairways on their approach shots. Hitting the fairway is crucial to scoring low at The Old White TPC. We want solid ball-strikers, especially golfers who excel from 125-150 yards, and golfers who hit their long irons with precision to set up birdie opportunities on these long Par 3s.
Golf Betting Picks — Favorites at the Greenbrier
Bryson Dechambeau and Viktor Hovland open as +1300 co-favorites at Draftkings and FanDuel. Hovland and Dechambeau are miles better than most of the field, but I want more value from golfers in the top-third of the betting board. Sunjae Im and Joaquin Niemann the first two to stick out.
Sunjae Im +3000 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) – Sunjae Im has impressed his peers on Tour. PGA Tour caddie Geno Boannalie praised praised Im after walking alongside the young golfer in August.” In my short three years caddying on the PGA Tour, we’ve had the fortune to play with some of the very best in the world…Sungjae Im is the most impressive player I’ve ever seen,” Bonnalie tweeted out after Joel Dahmen was paired up with him. Im’s schedule was brutal last season. Rarely taking a week off, Im made nine cuts in his final 10 tournaments, including two Top 10s and six Top 25s (plus a T26). It doesn’t look like the 21-year-old is slowing down anytime soon as Im is playing six of the next eight weeks on Tour. Im has all the potential in the world but plays with a recklessness of youth that gets him into trouble at times. Once he figures out a balance, in his aggressiveness on the course and in making his schedule, I think he’ll be one of the better golfers on Tour. +3000 at DraftKings is a great price relative to +2200-2500 at other online sports betting sites. Moreover, the coerced two-week break might actually serve Im well.
Joaquin Niemann +3000 – We get a similar value betting on Niemann at DraftKings. There’s some assuring course history to go off of with Niemann as well, even though Niemann is actually younger than Im. The young Chilean golfer has played at the Greenbrier twice, finishing 29th as a rookie and improving on that with a Fifth-place finish one year later. Niemann leads the field in total strokes gained thanks to his excellent ball-striking and off-the-tee game. The one knock on Niemann is that he hasn’t been great from 125-150 yards, but he was able to turn it on from that distance in his first two trips to West Virginia.
Golf Betting Picks — Midtier Odds at the Greenbrier
Scottie Scheffler +4000 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds) – Another young golfer is fully exempt for the 2019-2020 season after finishing with the most points at the end of the Korn Ferry Tour season (formerly known as the Web.com Tour). The University of Texas product missed the cut at the U.S. Open but made cuts at the Bryon Nelson and Texas Open last season. Scheffler comes in hot and has the pedigree to succeed. Like many recent winners, Scheffler quickly parlayed his collegiate success into professional success in the minor league of golf. Scheffler has already gotten the best of many of the golfers he’ll be competing with this fall.
Robert Streb +7000 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)- Missing the cut in nine of his last 12 tournaments, Robert Streb hasn’t entered the week in good form in a while. Despite his struggles, Streb seems to love the Greenbrier. Streb has two runners-up and most recently a T11 in 2018. Before his T11, Streb had missed three straight cuts, which should ease our minds a bit. At least Streb finished 3rd at the Barracuda two tournaments ago.
Golf Betting Picks — Longshot Odds at the Greenbrier
Andrew Landry +8000 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds) – Andrew Landry makes his first appearance in West Virginia and his game should set up well. Landry is No. 3 in proximity to the hole from 125-150 yards and leads the field between 150-175 yards.
Brendon Todd +12500 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds) – If you played DFS golf in the early days then you might remember Brendon Todd. If not, then you probably have no idea Todd has suffered through a few grueling years of golf, but it looks like he’s starting to figure out things. Todd has two Top 20s since May. In his three appearances at the Greenbrier between 2012-15, Todd finished 46th, 4th, and 6th.
Robbie Shelton +26000 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) – Shelton gained PGA Tour experience in 2016 and 2017 before winning two tournaments on the Web.com Tour in 2018. Given the field strength (or lack thereof), Shelton is worth a punt at this price.
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images