Hawks vs. Bucks Game 5 Prop Bets, Picks (Thursday, July 1)

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-07-01 14:46:53

Feeling a little gun-shy when it comes to betting NBA spreads and moneylines, weary that the next major injury could be looming any minute? Welcome to the club. Admittedly, I’m treading very lightly with Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks, which could feature both Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined in street clothes. Instead of tossing a bunch of money on a crapshoot game with multiple injury implications, I’ll be leaning heavily into the wild world of player props.

For the sake of hypothetical clarity (wait, is that an oxymoron!?), I’ll be navigating the props as if both Young and Antetokounmpo are both out Thursday. It’s the easiest way for me to attack these odds with consistency, and to avoid suggesting a prop that might be removed 10 hours after we publish.

Let’s grit our teeth, keep our fingers crossed for no more injuries, and dive into the game and player prop pool to reveal my best bets for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. And remember, it doesn’t always have to be pretty to make you money.

Bucks vs. Hawks Player Props & Picks

Khris Middleton, Double-Double (-107)

I love myself some Khris Middleton props. With Giannis out due to a hyper-extended knee, I’m tempted to bet the OVER on Middleton’s points total (27.5, -109) and made three-point field goals total (2.5, -127). But in my opinion, the best overall value lies with the double-double prop at -107.

Middleton has double-doubled in six of Milwaukee’s 15 playoff games this year, after registering just 10 in the regular season. Khash Khris gets up for the big games, and he should be extremely active this evening. The two-time All-Star averaged 18.9 shots per game in contests the Greek Freak did not suit up for this season, and he came within two boards of a double-double in five of those eight games.

Middleton logged a career night in Game 3, finishing with a postseason career high 38 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. He should be all systems go in the pivotal Game 5 this evening.

Atlanta Winning or Tied at End of First Quarter (-112)

The Hawks have a lot of moxie, or as Austin Powers would say, mojo. With or without Young, these players believe in each other as a unit. And they always seem to get off to great starts, another gold star on the record of my favorite coach, Nate McMillan.

Look at the outcomes of Atlanta’s first quarter scores the past couple games: +3 in Game 4, and +5 in Game 3. It also had first quarters in the semifinals against Philly in which it finished +15 and +7. I’ll take the hot-shooting young Hawks to start strong again on Thursday.

Alternate Game Score: Hawks +4.5 (-150)

If Antetokounmpo does not suit up—which we fully expect to be the case—Atlanta should come out swinging at Fiserv. The Hawks have exhibited great tempo with veteran point guard Lou Williams running the offense in Young’s absence, and they are brimming with confidence.

Atlanta has hit 28 three-pointers in its past two games, and would be up 3-1 if not for Middleton going nuclear in the second half of Game 3. I know, that’s playing the ‘what if’ game, but still—the Hawks have good reason to believe in themselves. I may not love ATL to go into Cream City and pull off the upset, but I sure do love the Hawks with a four-point handicap.

Lopez, OVER 20.5 Total Points, Rebounds, Assists

With Giannis out, the veteran Lopez will be called upon to step up on the interior Thursday. The 33-year old is still quite capable of contributing points in the teens and rebounds in the double-digits, so I think 20.5 total points, rebounds, and assists will be a layup. He beat that total in six of the nine games Giannis missed this season, and averaged 21.2 points, rebounds, and assists across those nine games. Book it.

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