Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Predictions: Friday, April 15th
A momentous Tuesday closed with 20 home runs across Major League Baseball. Twenty five RotoGrinders community members stepped up to the plate and tried to call their shots. Well, mixed results would be the polite way of characterizing our collective effort.
Marcell Ozuna and Salvador Perez both smacked two home runs. Two community members, yisman and mpuntsch included Ozuna in their selections. The effort vaulted them to the top of our opening leaderboard. With a full slate on Friday, we should see far more home runs. Who is going yard?
Batter up!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt
Third Place – One week of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Friday, April 15th MLB DFS Slate Notes
Friday night features an 11-game slate, beginning at 7:05 PM EST. The slate features plenty of offensive opportunities, likely rife with home run opportunities.
The winds will be blowing out for the Chicago White Sox tonight as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa is a tough offense to target for this contest when they play at home. Guaranteed Rate Field — with some wind help — is a much better spot for the Rays.
The Yankees head to Baltimore for a weekend set with the Orioles. The Oriole will trot out Jordan Lyles and the Yankees bring an implied run total north of five runs. Potentially a good stacking environment, we need to consider a few of these hitters.
The contest will get its first crack at Coors Field as the Cubs continue their series against the Rockies. Noted groundball hurler, Marcus Stroman will pitch for the Cubs, so can he mitigate the lack of air in Colorado?
The Rangers and Angels play in Texas with a 10-run total with a couple of pitchers with potential to give up some bombs. The Cardinals travel to Milwaukee to play the Brewers in Miller Park. Both teams are loaded with plenty of power bats that might go overlooked given the context of the slate.
Friday, April 15th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Shoehei Ohtani – 1B/OF – $5,700
Ohtani joins a massive group of sluggers in our top tier this evening. The luxury box is quite luxurious this evening with several Yankees drawing matchups in Baltimore, Vladimir Guerrero at home… Speaking of Vladdy, let me be the RotoGrinders community member that congratulates him on his three-homer night — the night AFTER we all picked him in the contest.
Hopefully, Ohtani takes advantage of the friendly confines in Texas with a winnable matchup and power for days. How does a .297 ISO sound? What about a 40.7 FB%? A 92.8 mph EVavg? Ohtani makes for a really, really strong home run call any night — but this evening feels perfect. On the road and hitting leadoff, we are likely looking at four at-bats.
At the time of this writing, Ohtani is +225 to go yard at DraftKings Sportsbook. I will shop around a bit as more prices get released later in the day.
Promenade – Joey Gallo – OF – $4,200
A steady hand is required for this place. Will Joey Gallo strike out tonight? Probably. Does Jordan Lyles make that less likely? His 17.0 K% last season against left-handed hitters suggests that this would be a good time to fire Gallo up and hope he turns on one.
The changes to Camden Yards don’t impact the plight of lefties looking for home runs. Despite his K numbers being a primary focus as of late, Gallo still finished the 2021 season with a .284 ISO, 49.4 FB%, and 91.0 mph EVAvg against right-handed pitching.
Gallo is a very frustrating watch and can potentially strike out 1,000,000 times this season. Yet, all it takes is one or two swings to get the job done, tonight.
Gallo features a +400 price on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of this writing. Let’s hope the Ohtani price improves on FanDuel so we can match them together for a parlay.
Bleacher Seats – Cody Bellinger – OF – $2,800
The cheap seats. Cody Bellinger does not care the same esteem as he did a few years ago for the Dodgers. That’s okay, he offers a cheap option to try and sneak a home run through this evening.
Opposing pitcher, Vladimir Gutierrez faced 226 lefties last season. Surrendering 42.6% fly balls, a .247 ISO, and a 46.2% hard-hit rate puts him in the conversation as a great target for a cheap home run.
Hopefully, Bellinger makes the lineup and goes yard for us. A +390 price on FanDuel Sportsbook at least suggests he is as likely to hit a home run as Joey Gallo. We’ll go with that! Good luck, tonight.
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Tuesday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.