Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Predictions: Tuesday, April 12th
Ladies and gentlemen. Boys and girls. Baseball fans. Sports bettors. Daily fantasy enthusiasts. Your eyes do not deceive. The Home Run Derby is back in 2022. Our community-based, DFS-adjacent baseball contest is back.
It is so simple.
All you need to do is pick you think will hit a home run for that DFS slate from three different tiers. For every home run they hit that evening, your total goes up. Lead the community at the end of the month and you will receive prizes in the way of premium content or RotoGrinders swag.
So, step up to the plate this season. Read this article each day. Leave your picks in the comments.
Batter up!
Rules and Tiers
Articles for this contest will be up for the Tuesday and Friday main slates on DraftKings. I will keep a spreadsheet with total home runs for any players that enter the contest throughout the course of the season and update standings with each article.
Players must be selected in the comments of this article. Picks on Twitter – while I appreciate the follow – will not be accepted. Tallying the home runs is usually a relatively lengthy process. So, all of the picks being located in one spot helps me get that together pretty quickly.
Tiers will be developed from DraftKings pricing for that particular day’s main slate (typically 7:00 PM EST start time). Afternoon games are a bit too early and we want everyone to have a chance to pick their home runs before lock time. Please get your picks in before DraftKings lock time for that day.
Here are the tiers. You must pick one player from each tier to hit home runs for you that evening.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
So, for that night, one player from each tier. There is no limit to how many times you use a player throughout the course of the month or the season. Of course, if your player doesn’t make the lineup, feel free to reply to your comment with a switch for a later game.
So, what can you win?
Prizes
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt
Third Place – One week of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
We can (and will) all have a bad month during the summer. Every home run counts towards your overall total but every month resets for a chance at the monthly prizes.
Good luck! I look forward to the commentary throughout the course of the season as we root for the long ball.
Tuesday, April 12th MLB DFS Slate Notes
Each day, I am just going to mention a few notes about the slate prior to going over my picks for the night. Positive hitting environments. Gas can pitchers. Domes. Weather. Narratives. BVP… just kidding.
The Orioles will host the Milwaukee Brewers to continue their opening series at Camden Yards. If you have not read up on the changes, this MLB.com article does a good job of covering the changes made to left field. Camden Yards surrendered 1,149 home runs over the last five years – nearly double San Francisco’s Oracle Park. The changes won’t affect left-handed hitters, though, as Camden Yards was also the third-most friendly park for left-handed home runs in 2021.
The Yankees host the Blue Jays. Bombs away… This matchup will likely be a popular target for this contest throughout the course of the season. George Springer went yard in the opening game of the set on Monday night. Might we see fireworks with two lefties on the bump in Yusei Kikuchi and Nestor Cortes?
The MLB weather for this evening suggests that Yankee Stadium will be a good place to hunt home runs. Also, scan through our WeatherEdge tool for a bit more about historical conditions for each game this night and the impact weather plays on offense.
Tuesday, April 12th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Vladimir Guerrero – 1B – $6,100
I am not going to open the season and avoid the game noted above. No way! I would imagine we will see many people make picks from this game in each of the tiers. I am going to start with Guerrero to get a bit of exposure to the Blue Jays.
Making a case for Vladimir Guerrero feels pretty tedious. So, instead, I will just discuss the exploits of Yankees starter, Nestor Cortes. Last season, Cortes allowed more than 51% fly balls to right-handed hitters with an average exit velocity of 88.3 MPH. This game is going to be stack in several ways. The right-handed Blue Jays bats make plenty of sense.
Let’s open the season with Vlad as our expensive pick and hope he gets us on the board. You can wager on this home run at +210 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Promenade – Giancarlo Stanton – OF – $4,900
The plan is unveiled. I opened with Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. so I can get my Yankees exposure in this tier. Giancarlo Stanton opened the season in a big way. I am hoping he continues into this home series.
Stanton already has two home runs to his name in the nascent stages of the 2022 Yankees campaign. Like Vladdy, we shouldn’t spend much time trying to tout Stanton’s power exploits. Versus lefties last season, Stanton averaged a 97 mph exit velocity. You have seen the highlights of the many Stantonian lasers to left field. Do not be shocked when we see one or two of those leave the yard tonight.
For the Blue Jays, Yusei Kikuchi will take the bump. I say that his 91.5 EVavg against right-handed hitters last season bodes well for a power-hitting right handed lineup in New York. He does limit fly balls but I can’t imagine he will escape this start alive. Give me many Yankees this evening but for this contest, I will take Stanton.
You can add Stanton to your FanDuel Sportsbook home run picks for a price of +290. A SGP with both of our picks thus far will yield +1000.
Bleacher Seats – Rowdy Tellez – OF – $2,700
Ahhh, the cheap seats. The tier that usually makes the biggest difference in this contest month-to-month. Finding a home run in this tier can truly give you a leg up on the competition as at-bats can be tough to come by.
Our first bleacher creature this season is Rowdy Tellez. Tellez is on the road in the aforemention Camden Yards against Spenser Watkins. With a heart of the order spot and a few at-bats, we can do worse than a lefty in Camden Yards.
Tellez brings with him a solid ISO and fly ball rate against right-handed pitching. That said, his 92.4 EVavg against righties is promising against a pitcher that, well, is going to be hit around. Watkins’ PlateIQ page features a sea of red — an equal opportunity gas can against hitters of all kinds. Pitching in a ball park that has a track record of allowing lefty bombs and well, this one feels academic.
Assuming he makes the lineup, Tellez feels pretty strong. FanDuel Sportsbook does not have a price on his home run at the time of this writing. Player props for this game aren’t up yet. I will circle back and hopefully add this price and make a SGP+ out of these three on FanDuel for a cheap, fun Tuesday night sweat.
Thanks so very much for reading. This article was always very fun to write and brings fun interactions as we all get to know each other throughout the course of the MLB season. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. I look forward to a great season. We will be back on Friday for a recap of tonight’s action and a preview for Friday night. Good luck!