Best Jaguars vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets for NFL Divisional Saturday
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday afternoon from Trevor Lawrence, Travis Kelce, and Patrick Mahomes? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite NFL prop bets for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs will meet for the second time this season when they play on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium. In the first matchup, Kansas City emerged victorious by a final score of 27-17. In the rematch, oddsmakers have the Chiefs priced as 9-point home favorites on the spread.
As kickoff approaches, much of the value on the side and total has been stripped of its initial value, but there remains plenty of opportunity for bettors on the player prop market. Below, we have three of our favorite spots for this afternoon’s divisional round contest!
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Jaguars vs. Chiefs – NFL Divisional Round Player Props
- Trevor Lawrence to throw an interception
- Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception
- Travis Kelce to score a touchdown
Trevor Lawrence to throw an interception (-145), DraftKings
Including the wild-card round, Trevor Lawrence has a 7.7% turnover-worthy-play percentage this year when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. Among qualified quarterbacks, only Matt Ryan has a worse turnover-worthy percentage than Lawrence.
From a clean pocket, Lawrence owns a 25-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio this year, but only a 4-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under duress. The Kansas City Chiefs finished the regular season ranked fifth in sacks per pass attempt, fifth in pressure percentage, and seventh in hurry percentage. Expect Lawrence to be uncomfortable on Saturday, which is likely to lead to at least one ill-advised throw resulting in a turnover.
Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (+100), DraftKings
Lawrence is not the only AFC starting quarterback on Saturday who has struggled with ball security under pressure this year. Per Pro Football Focus, Patrick Mahomes had a 29-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket during the regular season, but only a 12-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. Among qualified signal callers, only Mac Jones and Matt Ryan threw more interceptions when under pressure this fall.
This afternoon, Mahomes will have to contend with a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that forced 11 turnovers, led the league in pressures, and had the ninth-best defensive DVOA of any team in the league across their final five regular season contests. At even-money, this is a worthwhile wager for bettors.
Travis Kelce o6.5 receptions (-115), MGM
In last year’s postseason, Travis Kelce caught 23 passes on 27 targets in three games, falling short of this market number only once. The year prior, Kelce caught 31 passes on 41 targets in three games, with at least eight receptions in each contest. During the 2019 postseason, Kelce had 19 catches on 22 targets in three games, with only one game of fewer than six receptions. Simply, Kelce has proven himself over and over again as capable of performing at a high level during the month of January. Facing one of the worst linebacker corps in the entire NFL on Saturday, expect Kelce to be busy once again as he and the Chiefs look for their fifth consecutive trip to the AFC championship game.
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