Jaguars vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Picks and Player Props
Thanks to a fantastic few weeks of NFL action, time feels like it’s flying as fast as ever. Somehow, someway, we are gearing up for the Thursday Night Football kickoff of Week 4. Tonight’s battle pits the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars against the explosive young Cincinnati Bengals. Nick Galaida is busy looking at more traditional bets for the Jaguars vs. Bengals, but we are especially excited to construct a Same Game Parlay on PointsBet for Thursday Night Football, as we have already made a bunch of money on this new format.
A Same Game Parlay basically just means a parlay consisting of multiple correlated wagers from one specific game. It provides bettors with good options to bet a game—and piece together parlays—beyond just the standard spread, moneyline, and over/under totals.
Here’s an example of my Same Game Parlay for Sunday Night Football, which I recommended to readers Sunday morning:
- Green Bay Packers Total: OVER 21.5 (-140)
- ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: Aaron Jones (-110)
- ANYTIME SCORER: Davante Adams (+100)
- George Kittle to Get 75+ Receiving Yards (-230)
Total Odds: +834 | Bet: $100 | Total Payout: $934
If you played this custom-made parlay, you would have woken up $834 richer Monday morning.
It’s quick, it’s simple, and it’s a super fun way of betting one specific game—and building a big potential payout—without being confined to the typical lines and spreads.
Let’s dive into our favorite Same Game Parlay bets for Thursday Night Football, and make some more money!
Jaguars vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay
- Total: OVER 46 (-110)
- Tri Bet 10.5: Either Team Under 10.5 Points (-135)
- Half Time/Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals/Cincinnati Bengals (-165)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Ja’Marr Chase (+100)
- Quarterback Passing Yards: Joe Burrow Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Total Same Game Parlay Odds: +1655
To Bet: $60 | To Win: $993 | Total Payout: $1,053
Total: OVER 46 (-110)
We always like to lay the foundation of our parlay with solid, trusty picks. This season, betting the OVER in primetime games has been as solid as concrete with rebar. Seriously, the over has hit in eight of nine evening games this year. Sportsbooks will catch on eventually, but until then, let’s take the free space on our bingo card and toss this one into the parlay.
The Jaguars rank 28th in points allowed this season, and 29th in total yards surrendered. And the Bengals are middle-of-the-pack in passing yards allowed (14th), but below average in opposing third-down conversion percentage (42%, 21st). I think second-year Bengals QB Joe Burrow has a get-right game at home against the Jags, and Jacksonville rookie Trevor Lawrence at least takes a step forward against Cincy.
Even if the QBs are not great, we could still see a ton of points. Jacksonville has turned the ball over nine times in three games, often giving opponents quality field position (or worse, defensive TDs). Cincy has turned the ball over five times in the last two weeks, and has four takeaways on the year as well. So, crisp game or not, this game should exceed 46 total points.
Stay Away from the Spread—and also the Moneyline!
Let this be an in-column public service announcement: don’t bet a heavy moneyline as a Same Game Parlay leg. When I tried to add Cincy’s -351 moneyline into this parlay—to push it from a five-leg parlay to a six-legger—the total odds of the parlay (+1655) and total payout ($1,053) remained the same. So, screw that! Why add a condition, effectively increasing the risk, without also increasing the potential reward?
On the surface, or in a vacuum (or any of those stupid idioms), Cincy’s -351 moneyline looks unappealing. At -351 in a straight bet, you’d have to spend $100 to make $28 in profit. Too much risk, not enough potential gain. The same can be said for adding it to your parlay—so just scroll right on past the moneyline for the home favorites, at least this week.
While we’re here, I generally advise friends to avoid the spreads in Thursday games, especially large spreads early in the season. Underdogs often cover in short-week contests. So, while I expect the Bengals to win at home, I won’t be touching their -7.5 spread with a ten-foot pole.
Tri Bet 10.5: Either Team Under 10.5 Points (-135)
This is the cool part of building your own parlay with lots of different props. As I said before, I like Cincy to win outright, but don’t want to tango with a 7.5-point spread either way. So, to make up for the value I lost by avoiding the spread, I can play a tri bet at -135.
A tri bet prop basically lists three final score scenarios involving one number, and you must pick which one of the three will hit. In this case, I could bet Cincy to win by 10.5 at +125, the Jags to win by 10.5 at +900, or neither team to win by 10.5 at -135. I’m electing to bet that neither team will win by 10.5 points, as primetime games almost always manage to end competitively. Of course, that wasn’t the case with Davis Mills and the Texans last week versus Carolina. But more often than not, we don’t see double-digit sock-rockers in nationally-televised games.
The average margin of victory in Bengals games this season has been 6.66 (devilish!), while the average margin of victory in Jaguars games has been 12.6. The average of those averages—mind-blowing analysis here—is 9.6. With Cincy not rushing the passer well all season, and the Bengals secondary banged up, I like this one to at least not be a runaway.
I’m projecting the final score to be something like Bengals 30-23. That would crush the masses that bet Cincy -8.5, but we would be fine as long as the Jags don’t lose by more than 10. I feel safe here—this is my safe place.
Half Time/Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals/Cincinnati Bengals (-165)
Even if the final score doesn’t make it look like a runaway, I still think Burrow bests TLaw relatively easily from start to finish. I’m not worried about the absence of second-year wideout Tee Higgins, because running back Joe Mixon and wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd can help Burrow get things done. And Cincy’s secondary may be banged up, but Lawrence has struggled with lesser defenses—he has the league-worst completion rate (50.4%), an NFL-worst seven INTs, and a 60.3 QB rate (hey, he’s not dead-last in that last cat—thanks, Zach Wilson!).
The Jags have been in over their heads with longtime college coach Urban Meyer at the helm and No. 1 pick Lawrence under center. Hell, they lost in Week 1 to the Texans, widely regarded this preseason as the worst team in the NFL. Maybe this will be the week this Jacksonville team figures it out, and we will regret betting against them in any capacity. But I doubt it. The Bengals are a super safe bet at home—with their multiple offensive weapons and better all-around defense—I’m probably giving the Jags too much credit by avoiding Cincy’s -7.5.
Cincy just beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and came close to beating the Bears in Chicago. In contrast to those two defenses, the Jaguars are a college football team. Like I said, this is a get-right game for Burrow. It may not be pretty from start to finish, but I think the Bengals will outscore the Jaguars in the first half and second half—just like they led at halftime and the end of the game in their two wins. And that’s all we need for the green checkmark on this leg.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Ja’Marr Chase (+100)
Full disclosure: I am big, big, big into Ja’Marr Chase. For me, he’s the football version of LaMelo Ball. He’s already tinkering on superstardom three games into his NFL career, showcasing his great hands, explosive burst, and elite playmaking ability. And his familiarity and past rapport with former LSU teammate Burrow have clearly paid dividends.
With Higgins (shoulder) out for the second-consecutive game Thursday, Chase once again serves as the young WR1 for this Bengals team. Everything about this dynamic rookie’s numbers should make you excited to pick him here—he has 16 targets in three games, good for a 21.3 percent target share. He has caught 68.8 percent of the passes thrown to him, despite his QB starting the season poorly. He has moved the first-down chains eight times, and scored four touchdowns. You’re nuts if you aren’t rooting for him, or at least putting money on him.
Quarterback Passing Yards: Joe Burrow Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-115)
On to the final leg of the parlay, our quarterback prop (side note: yes, we do realize we opted to not bet on a single Jaguar-related prop. We say ‘no thank you’ to high volatility). Like I’ve said throughout this column, tonight will be Burrow’s get-right game, a chance for him to go mano-a-mano with a fellow No. 1 pick and show the world he’s fully recovered from his November 2020 ACL tear.
If you really break down the Bengals’ game footage, Burrow hasn’t even been all that bad. Erase the three-interception game in Chicago from the season, and you’ve got a QB with five touchdowns, one pick, a 75.9 percent completion rate, and a 125.9 QB rating. Sure, that’s cherry-picking, but that’s what journalists do to help prove a point. It’s shameless, I know.
The most important factor for Burrow on Thursday evening is protection—if his line gives up five or more sacks like it did in Weeks 1 and 2, he’s not going to blow open the yardage roof. But if the line holds up, like it did last week in Pittsburgh when it allowed zero sacks, I think he’s a good bet to easily surpass 246 air yards. He had 261 passing yards in Week 1 against Minnesota, and he went over 246 in six of his nine full games as a rookie before suffering the injury. Go with Joe to help make you that dough.
Image Credit: Imagn