Thursday Night Football Picks: Jaguars vs. Bengals Odds & Predictions
Jaguars vs. Bengals Odds
| Jaguars Odds | -7.5 |
| Bengals Odds | +7.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 30 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals will battle on Thursday Night Football this week at Paul Brown Stadium. Oddsmakers are expecting Cincinnati to continue their hot start to the season, pricing the Bengals as greater than a touchdown favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest when it comes to NFL betting picks.
Read more: Jaguars vs. Bengals Same-Game Parlay
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-110)
Through three weeks, the Jaguars have firmly cemented themselves as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Jacksonville is winless entering Week 4, having lost each of their first three contests by double-digits. Experiencing significant issues on both sides of the ball, this group is unlikely to find the win column on Thursday in Cincinnati.
Trevor Lawrence is one of the most-hyped prospects to enter the league in recent memory. Yet, after being the top overall selection in this past summer’s draft, Lawrence has looked completely overmatched in his first professional action. He has thrown multiple interceptions in each of his first three career games and is yet to have a QBR above 70.1, despite playing two very beatable opposing defenses, the Houston Texans and the Arizona Cardinals. James Robinson showed flashes of good production in Week 3, but he is unlikely to be a difference-maker, playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Jacksonville perfectly illustrates why it is useless to have talented skill players without strong protection up front. Expect this group to continue to struggle as the calendar prepares to flip to October.
Defensively, safety Andrew Wingard has played well in the early part of the season. However, he has been the only player for this defense with above average production through three weeks. Jacksonville failed to record a sack last week against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Myles Jack and Damien Wilson form one of the least effective linebacker tandems in football. Tyson Campbell, Chris Claybrooks, and Shaqull Griffin have not done much well either this year. Expect the Bengals’ talented group of wide receivers to have a big night against this weak Jaguars’ secondary.
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-110)
After finishing a disappointing 4-11-1 in 2020, the Bengals are in a position to move to 3-1 with a victory on Thursday. Yet, bettors should be cautious about buying long-term stock in Cincinnati, considering that their first three opponents all have a losing record through three weeks, and are all likely to have a sub-.500 record at the end of the season.
Still, Joe Burrow has been excellent so far in 2021, erasing any concerns that were present regarding his surgically repaired knee. In an admittedly small sample size, Burrow looks to have dramatically improved his deep-ball in his sophomore campaign. Part of this could be due to the addition of emerging star Ja’Marr Chase at wide receiver. Running back Joe Mixon continues to be supremely talented, but will continue to have his production limited by a porous offensive line.
On the defensive side of the ball, D.J. Reader, Logan Wilson, and Vonn Bell have all been standouts this fall. Cincinnati has done a phenomenal job stopping the run so far this year. The secondary has good numbers through three weeks, but part of that is unquestionably a benefit of playing Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, and Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 and 3. Kirk Cousins, the only talented quarterback that Cincinnati has faced in 2021, threw for 351 yards and two touchdowns in a high-scoring Week 1 affair. Nonetheless, Lawrence’s ability for tonight’s game projects much more closely to Dalton, Fields, and Roethlisberger, than it does to Cousins. Bettors should expect a strong performance from the Bengals’ defense once again this evening.
Jaguars vs. Bengals Picks
Bettors interested in backing the Bengals tonight will have to do so on the wrong side of seven-points. On a short week, there should be little interest in backing Cincinnati as such a heavy favorite, considering that they are yet to prove themselves against a high-quality opponent.
The total for this game opened at over/under 49 points, was bet down to 45, and can be found as of this writing at 46 at multiple sportsbooks. Against two bad offenses in Week 2 and 3, Cincinnati’s final game score totaled 37 points and 34 points respectively. Jacksonville’s game totals the last two weeks have totaled 46 and 50 points respectively—and last week would have been 43 points if not for an irresponsible 68 yard field goal attempt by the Cardinals that was returned 109 yards for a touchdown to end the first half.
Buy a point to get on the right side of 47—the fourth most common total in the NFL since the extra point was moved in 2015—in this matchup, and take the under in this one.
PICK: Under 47.5 (-140)
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