Japan vs. Mexico: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Japan vs. Mexico Odds
| Japan ML | -230 |
| Mexico ML | +195 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Mon, Mar. 20 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Monday, Japan and Mexico will meet in the semifinals of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, with the winner advancing to the finals on Tuesday against the United States. Tonight, Japan will hand the ball to Roki Sasaki, who will be opposed by Patrick Sandoval.
Oddsmakers are anticipating a Japan victory, pricing them as -230 favorites on the moneyline ahead of first pitch. The over/under on the total set at 8.5 runs.
Japan
Sasaki takes the mound
Roki Sasaki, the 21-year-old phenom from Japan, will toe the rubber this evening with a chance to send his team to the finals. In 2022, he posted a 2.02 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 35.3% strikeout percentage, and a 4.7% walk rate across 129.2 innings of work.
Sasaki has touched as high as 102 mph with his fastball. He also has a devastating sinker that makes life extraordinarily difficult for the opposition. During pool play, he totaled eight strikeouts in only 3 ⅔ innings of work against the Czech Republic.
What to expect from Japan’s offense
Through their first five tournament games, Japan has posted the highest OPS of any team in the Classic. They are the only offense in the tournament to have walked more times than they have struck out. Incredibly, Japan has walked 21 more times than the United States, which ranks second – and the United States has played one additional game.
Entering play on Monday, Japan has 10 different players who own a .770 OPS or better in this year’s event. From top to bottom, this is unquestionably an elite offense.
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Mexico
Sandoval gets the ball
During pool play, Patrick Sandoval made one start, tossing three innings. He allowed one run on two hits, walking two batters and striking out two batters. Last year with the Los Angeles Angels, Sandoval posted a 2.91 ERA, 3.91 xERA, and a 3.67 FIP across 148.2 innings of work.
Sandoval’s primary vulnerability is against right-handed bats. In 2022, he had a 2.13 FIP, .151 opponent batting average, and a 0.75 WHIP against left-handed hitters, compared to a 3.38 FIP, .271 opponent batting average, and a 1.52 WHIP against righties.
Fortunately for Sandoval, he will get to face a Japan lineup that is likely to feature at least five left-handed hitters on Monday, giving him a chance to keep this contest competitive.
What to expect from the Mexico offense
Mexico’s offense has proven itself to be five-deep through their first five games in this year’s Classic. Randy Arozarena has been the star of the show, with a .471 batting average, 1.566 OPS, and nine runs-batted-in while playing elite defense in left field.
Joey Meneses, Austin Barnes, Isaac Paredes, and Rowdy Tellez each enter play on Monday with an .824 OPS or better for the tournament as well.
Overall, Mexico’s offense ranks 10th out of 20 teams in OPS in five games played. Tonight’s matchup against Sasaki will prove to be their most difficult test to date at the plate.
Japan vs. Mexico – Picks & Predictions
Simply, Mexico is severely overmatched in this contest. Roki Sasaki, despite his young age, has already proven himself to be one of the most talented pitchers in the world. Sasaki possesses elite velocity and pinpoint command, which makes him a safe bet to limit the damage done against him each time he takes the mound.
Offensively, Japan leads the entire tournament in stolen bases, doubles, walks, on-base percentage, and OPS. Mexico has proven itself to have a top-heavy approach, getting little production from the bottom half of their batting order.
Expect Japan to roll in this spot. Trust them to cover the spread on Monday.
PICK: Japan -1.5 (-130, DraftKings)