Last Minute Research: NFL Week 7
Week 6 was certainly entertaining. Injuries and absolute duds from marquee players headlined a week that was one to forget for myself. It’s time to brush off and move on to Week 7 though, and with it comes a number of intriguing matchups to be exploited. I hope you enjoy the last minute numbers crunch before finalizing your lineups.
As a reminder, the purpose of this article is to highlight some of our NFL Daily Research tools by introducing you to most of the tools as well as depicting different ways to use or interpret them.
Have a question about a specific research tool? Feel free to post in the comments or check the links beneath each section for FAQ-related answers
Last Week’s Target Report
Shown below are all receivers/tight ends with 10 or more targets in Week 6.
| Player | Wk4 | Wk5 | Wk6 | Seas | Last3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Blackmon | 9 | 20 | 14.50 | 14.50 | |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 15 | 11.80 | 11.00 | |
| Vincent Jackson | 11 | 14 | 11.00 | 12.50 | |
| Kris Durham | 4 | 8 | 13 | 5.30 | 8.33 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 9 | 12 | 6.20 | 9.00 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 6 | 12 | 8.70 | 9.00 |
| Brandon Marshall | 14 | 5 | 11 | 9.70 | 10.00 |
| A.J. Green | 15 | 8 | 11 | 11.50 | 11.33 |
| Antonio Brown | 13 | 11 | 10.60 | 12.00 | |
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 7 | 11 | 10.20 | 9.00 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 11 | 6.20 | 6.50 | |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 11 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Denarius Moore | 6 | 8 | 10 | 7.30 | 8.00 |
| Aaron Dobson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7.40 | 5.67 |
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 10 | 8.00 | 8.50 | |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 10 | 6.60 | 7.00 | |
| Josh Gordon | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10.80 | 8.00 |
| Timothy Wright | 6 | 9 | 3.40 | 7.50 |
NOTES:
- Tim Wright and his 9 targets in Week 6 is intriguing. In two starts with Glennon, Wright has 12 catches on 15 targets for 132 yards.
- Keenan Allen is the guy for the Chargers. His targets increased again last weekend and if he’s still reasonably cheap, you need to roster him.
- Kris Durham saw 13 targets even with Megatron in uniform. Broyles may be healthy, but Durham has won WR2 duties in Detroit
- Value plays here: Wright, Dobson, Rudolph, Edelman, Allen, and Durham
- Of all the players with 10+ targets in Week 6, none of them hit double digit looks in Week 5.
- Greg Jennings saw big targets again last weekend and faces a Giants defense that could be politely described as porous in the secondary. It’s tough to know who Freeman will target most though, and we could easily see Simpson emerge in a bigger role.
Red Zone Offense vs. Defense
Shown below are the 5 worst teams in terms of red zone touchdown percentages for the 2013 season so far
| Offense | Defense | RZ-Att/G | RZ-TD/G | RZ-TD% | RZ-Att/G | RZ-TD/G | RZ-TD% | Avg Att | Avg TD | Avg TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | San Diego | 2.5 | 0.8 | 33.33% | 2.3 | 1.3 | 57.14% | 2.4 | 1.1 | 45.24% |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 2.6 | 1.0 | 38.46% | 2.7 | 0.7 | 25.00% | 2.7 | 0.9 | 31.73% |
| New England | NY Jets | 3.7 | 1.5 | 40.91% | 3.3 | 1.5 | 45.00% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 42.96% |
| Tennessee | San Francisco | 3.0 | 1.3 | 44.44% | 3.0 | 2.2 | 72.22% | 3.0 | 1.8 | 58.33% |
| Green Bay | Cleveland | 4.0 | 1.8 | 45.00% | 2.8 | 1.8 | 64.71% | 3.4 | 1.8 | 54.86% |
NOTES:
- The Patriots have scored touchdowns on just 40.91% of red zone trips this season, compared to a 67.50% rate in 2012. The return of Gronkowski should help that rate significantly, as he was the most targeted TE in the red zone in 2012 (17 targets, 8 TDs).
- Brady is just 16-33 (48.5%) on pass attempts in the RZ this season, compared to 49-81 (60.5%) a year ago.
- No surprise the Jags are scoring on just 33% of trips inside the 20, but the sneaky value play here could be kicker Josh Scobee. He’s min priced and the Chargers are pretty weak defensively. If the Jags struggle to punch it in, he could see a lot of opportunities.
- Be careful with Steelers offensive weapons this week, the Ravens have been one of the best red zone defenses and the Steelers are one of the worst going the other direction.
LINKS:
Offense vs. Defense
Shown below are the Top-5 projected highest scoring offenses this week, based on the average of team points per game and opponent points allowed per game
| Offense | Opp | PPG | P-Att | P-Yd | P-TD | Rec | INT | Ru-At | RuYd | RuTD | Pass | Rush | Rec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | IND | 30.3 | 35.8 | 283.2 | 2.25 | 24.1 | 1.0 | 29.3 | 123.7 | 1.08 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 53.9 | |
| Dallas | PHI | 30.2 | 40.1 | 289.8 | 2.25 | 26.8 | 1.7 | 23.3 | 95.3 | 0.67 | 18.9 | 13.5 | 55.9 | |
| Minnesota | NYG | 29.9 | 36.5 | 245.0 | 1.67 | 23.3 | 1.7 | 28.4 | 119.9 | 1.12 | 14.7 | 18.7 | 46.1 | |
| Chicago | WAS | 28.7 | 35.2 | 266.2 | 2.00 | 23.2 | 1.1 | 26.3 | 115.9 | 0.93 | 17.6 | 17.2 | 50.2 | |
| San Diego | JAC | 28.5 | 35.3 | 264.5 | 2.33 | 24.1 | 1.1 | 29.4 | 126.5 | 0.67 | 18.8 | 16.7 | 52.5 |
NOTES:
- Minnesota being projected as a top-5 scoring team this week based on Offense vs. Defense averages is a clear reflection of how bad the Giants have been defensively.
- Freeman might be new to Minnesota, but he had success last year with Vincent Jackson on the outside. Greg Jennings plays a similar role and could have a big week against a horrific NYG secondary.
- Chicago’s offense is no longer the weak-spot of the Bears team. They’ve been carrying CHI under a new scheme and Jay Cutler has been a Top-5 fantasy QB of late.
- San Diego’s running situation is a mess, but taking a shot on Mathews or Woodhead could pay off in GPPs this week. They are #5 in OvD rush yard average.
Rush Yardage Allowed Percentages
Shown below are all teams who have allowed 175 yards or more on the ground in over 20% of games this season
| Rush Defense | 0-75 yds | 75-125 yds | 125-175 yds | 175 yds + |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 16.70% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 33.30% |
| St. Louis | 16.70% | 33.30% | 16.70% | 33.30% |
| Washington | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
NOTES
- The ability to post a big game is just as important as an opponent’s ability to allow a big game. These three teams are the only ones to give up over 175 yards on the ground in 20% or more of their games in 2013
- Houston’s defense has been abysmal against the run, getting torched by Seattle and San Fran for over 175 yards a piece. Their opponents haven’t been unstoppable either. They allowed STL to 99 rush yards and TEN to 119.
- Jamaal Charles has huge upside and could be in for a monster game on Sunday.
- St Louis has games of 153, 193 and 219 rush yards allowed this season. DeAngelo Williams isn’t a top tier back but he does have good upside for the Panthers.
LINKS:
Defense vs. Position: Most FPPG-Allowed
_Shown below are the 5 worst defenses, in terms of FPPG-allowed, against each position.
| Bottom-5 vs. QB’s | Bottom-5 vs. RB’s | Bottom-5 vs. WR1’s | Bottom-5 vs. WR2’s | Bottom-5 vs. TE’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | Minnesota | Philadelphia | Seattle | Arizona |
| NY Giants | St. Louis | Buffalo | New England | Miami |
| San Diego | Miami | Denver | Denver | Dallas |
| Philadelphia | Washington | Atlanta | Atlanta | Green Bay |
| Minnesota | Jacksonville | Washington | San Diego | Minnesota |
NOTES:
- New England’s struggles against WR2’s could become struggles against all wideouts with the loss of shutdown corner Aqib Talib this weekend.
- The Giants/Vikings are all over this chart, meaning Monday night could be a fantasy point explosion. Or it could be a matchup of two disappointing teams who continue to disappoint.
- San Diego ranks in the bottom-5 against QBs and Chad Henne is still reasonably priced in a game where he should be throwing a lot from behind.
- The Chargers are also bottom-5 against WR2’s, meaning Cecil Shorts could have a nice day. If he can’t go, look for Ace Sanders to step in.
- Miami’s ranking against RB’s has come from some serious struggles stopping pass-catching RB’s (remember Sproles’ big night on MNF?) If Spiller can get involved in the passing game, he has big upside this weekend.
- Dallas has been ravaged by TE’s and Philly has Zach Ertz emerging for more and more snaps each week. He could be a tremendous value.
LINKS:
Running Back Battles: Snap Count Percentages
Shown below are running backs in positional battles and their respective snap counts from Week 6.
| TEAM | RB #1 | Wk6 % | RB #2 | Wk6 % | RB #3 | Wk6 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Stevan Ridley | 43% | LeGarrette Blount | 19% | Brandon Bolden | 36% |
| SD | Ryan Mathews | 53% | Danny Woodhead | 37% | ||
| DEN | Knowshon Moreno | 73% | Ronnie Hillman | 16% | Montee Ball | 9% |
| CLE | Willis McGahee | 38% | Chris Ogbonnaya | 57% | ||
| STL | Zac Stacy | 81% | Isaiah Pead | 0% | Daryl Richardson | 12% |
| CIN | Giovani Bernard | 58% | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 41% | ||
| NYJ | Bilal Powell | 57% | Chris Ivory | 16% | ||
| BUF | C.J. Spiller | 25% | Fred Jackson | 57% | Tashard Choice | 19% |
Notes:
- Stevan Ridley returned to form and posted the big stat-line against NO. Bolden still managed over 1/3 of the snaps though.
- Mathews came out of nowhere and stole over 50% of snaps in the Chargers offense. Not sure if he can do it again, but if so he’s a tremendous play.
- In a game expected to be more of a blowout, Moreno played more than expected.
- I was a little surprised to see that Ogbonnaya took more snaps than McGahee last week, especially when McGahee had been trending up rapidly.
- Zac Stacy is officially the man in STL. 81% of snaps essentially shoves Pead and Richardson to the corner.
- C.J. Spiller may never get any love in Buffalo. Jackson continues to be the more-used RB and Spiller is inching closer to Tashard Choice than he is F-Jax.
LINKS:
Week 7 NFL Vegas Odds
Shown below are the 5 highest projected scoring games, based on Vegas total over/unders
| Date | Time | Road | Home | Rd Sprd. | Hm Sprd. | O/U | Rd. Proj | Hm. Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 8:30PM ET | Denver | Indianapolis | -6.5 | 6.5 | 55.5 | 31 | 24.5 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Dallas | Philadelphia | 2.5 | -2.5 | 55 | 26.25 | 28.75 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Chicago | Washington | 0 | 0 | 50 | 25 | 25 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Cincinnati | Detroit | 2.5 | -2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | 24.75 |
| Mon | 8:40PM ET | Minnesota | NY Giants | 3 | -3 | 46.5 | 21.75 | 24.75 |
NOTES:
- Peyton returning to the house he built, no surprise Vegas has that juggernaut booked as a sizeable favorite in a high scoring affair. Luck on the other hand should have to throw a ton to keep up.
- Dallas and Philly is right behind, with both defenses struggling, you’re safe targeting anyone in a game with a close spread and high Over/Under
- I’m a bit surprised the line on the Detroit/Cincy game is so high. Expect some big games from Bush/Bernard and then watch a potential fireworks display between A.J. Green and Megatron.
- This is a lot better than last week, where none of the top-5 games started before 4 PM EST. At least there will be more to root for when lineups lock on Sunday
Chasing Peyton
Shown below are QB Stat-Lines this season when facing Peyton Manning
| Opposing QB | Pa-Att | PaYd | PaTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 42 | 303 | 0 | 12.82 |
| Tony Romo | 36 | 503 | 5 | 44.94 |
| Michael Vick | 27 | 248 | 0 | 14.02 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 28 | 281 | 1 | 18.84 |
| Eli Manning | 49 | 362 | 1 | 17.48 |
| Joe Flacco | 62 | 362 | 2 | 23.48 |
| Averages | 40.67 | 343.17 | 1.50 | 21.93 |
Notes:
- It’s clear that chasing Peyton and Denver’s offense has a positive effect on number of opportunities for QB’s. Whether that leads to big fantasy outputs is another thing, but the attempts are really high.
- The only 2 QB’s to throw less than 30 passes against Manning are run-first QBs (Vick and Pryor)
- All of this leads to my point that Andrew Luck could be a big play this weekend. Von Miller coming off suspension is scary, but Luck will need to post big numbers and pass a TON to keep up.
Have a great weekend Grinders!