Last Minute Research: NFL Week 8

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-10-27 09:04:39

Week 8 kicks off in less than 24 hours and it’s time to start cutting down your list of players to target and finalizing your lineups. Hopefully some of these stats help get you there.

Have a question about a specific research tool? Feel free to post in the comments or check the links beneath each section for FAQ-related answers

Last Week’s Double Digit Targets

Shown below are all wide receivers and tight ends who saw 10 or more targets in Week 7. (Max-S) is that players highest target number for the season

NOTES:

• Brady force-fed Gronkowski in a number of bad spots in Week 7 and it led to a career high 17 targets. Look for that number to drop back down to 8-10 this week.
• Dez and Calvin will square off in Detroit on Sunday and if it’s anything like last week, both should see looks early and often.
• Amazing that Cecil Shorts continues to rack up targets, but disappoint fantasy owners. I have to think that turns around eventually as he’s now been targeted 10+ times in all but one game (and he left on the first series in that one.)
• Decker and Welker both saw 12 targets against the Colts, but Demaryius was close with 9. The ‘odd-man out’ was Julius Thomas with 6 targets.
• Jason Avant was thrown to 12 times as well, and now has 4 games this season with 7 or more targets
• Brian Hartline continues to see a good amount of targets and could explode this weekend against the Patriots who are dead last in the NFL against WR #2s
• Hakeem Nicks was somehow the Giants most targeted and least effective receiver in Week 7

Risky Receivers

All receivers shown below have a standard deviation from the mean of their fantasy scores of 10 or higher

NOTES:

• These 5 WRs are have the largest standard deviations in their scoring for WRs and are the biggest “risk/reward” GPP-style plays so far this year
• All have posted scores of 25 or higher at some point, and 5 or lower (except Antonio Brown who’s minimum is 8.3)
• Anquan Boldin has scored no more than 17 fantasy points since breaking out for 30 in Week 1. He also has 5 games under 10 FP
• Megatron has games with 6 and 4 FP, along with 21, 26 and 32 point performances
• Victor Cruz has now gone three consecutive games without breaking the 10 FP marker
• 20, 30, 7, 4, 22, 21, 3 – That’s Djax’s line by week. He’s clearly tough to predict, although if he keeps this pattern of 2 good, 2 bad then he’s in trouble this weekend vs. NYG

Running Back Battles

NOTES:

• Spiller is doubtful for Buffalo and Hillman is out for Denver, so both of those RB battles should be simpler this weekend
• Chris Ivory took over as the featured back against a depleted NE front-seven and ran crazy. Pay close attention to if he keeps that lead role this weekend
• We might have to remove the Rams from a running back battle. It’s Stacy’s job to lose
• Fozzy Whitaker actually played pretty well for Cleveland but has little fantasy value and just steals snaps from McGahee
• Bolden playing 63% of snaps shows you how pass-focused the Patriots were last weekend. Look for them to tone that down against the Dolphins

LINKS:

• Running Back Snap Count Percentages

Defense vs. Position: Most Notable Awards

It’s the half-way point of the season so let’s point out some of the best and worst of defense vs. position stats:

• The Cardinals are ATROCIOUS vs. Tight Ends, allowing over 100 yards receiving per game. The next worst team is only allowing 83 (CHI)
• Philadelphia is the only team still averaging multiple touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers
• Minnesota’s defense against pass-catching backs is 12 yards per game worse than any other team, at 73 yds allowed per tilt
• Only 3 teams are allowing QBs to average over 300 yards per game this season – Denver, Philadelphia and Dallas
• The Broncos are the only team in the NFL to be in the bottom-4th of Defense vs. Position rankings at every position
• New England, New Orleans, Kansas City and Tennessee all ranked in the bottom-10 against QBs last year and rank in the Top-10 this season
• Houston is allowing the least receptions per game to opposing wideouts, at just 7.7. They are also tops against TE’s at just 2.9 per game allowed

LINKS:

• NFL Defense vs. Position Stats

Most Involved Red Zone Receivers/Tight Ends

Shown below is the receiver or tight end with the highest ‘involvement percentage’ in the red zone for each team. Involvement percentage includes receptions, carries or targets inside the 20

LINKS:

• Inside the 20: Wide Receivers
• Inside the 20: Tight Ends

Vegas Odds: Highest Over/Unders

Shown below are all games with an over/under of 50 or more points this weekend

NOTES:

• The NFC East does not play much defense. All 4 teams in that division are in a game with an O/U of 50 or higher
• The Broncos have had an O/U of 50 or higher in every game this season since Week 1.
• The (-3) spread in the Cowboys/Lions game could indicate a back-and-forth type shootout
• If the Saints hold true to the -12 spread, Buffalo could be forced to pass a lot to play catchup
• There are three games you know will be heavily targeted this week, but most people will shy away from full game stacks. I’d consider stacking any of the top 3 scoring games this weekend.

LINKS:

• Vegas Odds and Props

Offensive Line Rankings

Shown below are some O-Line rankings for various stat categories and an aggregate O-Line ranking for the Top-10 offensive lines so far in football

NOTES:

• No surprise Eddie Lacy has been able to break out this season. The Green Bay O-Line has been much improved and Aaron Rodgers has been able to stay on his feet more often. In 2012, the Packers O-Line allowed the 7th MOST QB hits in the NFL
• There’s a reason why Joseph Randle was able to step in for DeMarco Murray and succeed, the banged up Dallas O-line has put together some solid rush blocking this season
• San Diego has been a pleasant surprise offensively, and that’s due in big part to an O-Line that ranks 2nd overall in our metrics and 3rd in rush blocking according to ProFootballFocus

LINKS:

Advanced Player Stats: Running Backs

Weekly Cheat Sheet Targets

We’ll keep this short and sweet. Shown below are the targets for Week 8 based on players facing the bottom-5 ranked defense at their position

Good luck this week Grinders!