Last Minute Research: NFL Week 9
Week 9 brings a whole bunch of bye weeks, including the high-powered Broncos and Lions offenses. For those of you who have been banking on Peyton Manning every week, you’ll have to find a new Quarterback this weekend so we’ll try and dig through some QB stats as well as the usual Last Minute Research topics in this week’s article.
Last Week’s Targets
| PLAYER | TEAM | POS | Wk6 | Wk7 | Wk8 | Last3 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Douglas | ATL | WR | 7 | 18 | 12.50 | 7.40 | |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | WR | 8 | 15 | 16 | 13.00 | 11.30 |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | TE | 6 | 9 | 14 | 9.67 | 7.30 |
| Vincent Jackson | TB | WR | 14 | 22 | 13 | 16.33 | 12.90 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | WR | 11 | 7 | 13 | 10.33 | 10.40 |
| Hakeem Nicks | NYG | WR | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| David Nelson | NYJ | WR | 1 | 7 | 12 | 6.67 | 5.50 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | PIT | WR | 6 | 2 | 11 | 6.33 | 8.10 |
| Pierre Garcon | WAS | WR | 15 | 8 | 11 | 11.33 | 11.10 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | WR | 5 | 9 | 11 | 8.33 | 8.60 |
| Stevie Johnson | BUF | WR | 13 | 11 | 12.00 | 8.90 | |
| DeSean Jackson | PHI | WR | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8.33 | 9.30 |
| Scott Chandler | BUF | TE | 4 | 3 | 11 | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| Terrance Williams | DAL | WR | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6.33 | 4.80 |
| Victor Cruz | NYG | WR | 5 | 7 | 10 | 7.33 | 9.60 |
| Dexter McCluster | KC | WR | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6.67 | 5.10 |
| Mike Wallace | MIA | WR | 10 | 10 | 10.00 | 8.70 | |
| Josh Gordon | CLE | WR | 9 | 6 | 10 | 8.33 | 9.80 |
| Cecil Shorts | JAC | WR | 1 | 13 | 10 | 8.00 | 10.80 |
| Wes Welker | DEN | WR | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Justin Blackmon | JAC | WR | 20 | 9 | 10 | 13.00 | 12.00 |
Shown above are all players with 10+ targets last weekend
Notes:
- Stevie Johnson had been Thad Lewis’ favorite target but loses a ton of value with Lewis doubtful for this weekend.
- Jordan Reed saw 15+ catches for the 2nd straight weekend and has cemented his place along side Pierre Garcon as the only receiving options RG3 trusts consistently.
- Both Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders were targeted 10+ times in Week 8 and Sanders may be a great GPP play in Week 9, while Brown draws Aqib Talib in coverage.
- Harry Douglas had 18 targets last weekend. Just sit and think about that for a second.
- Biggest surprise here were the 10 targets that went to Dexter McCluster. He’s ultra talented and if it looks like he’s going to be more involved in the offense, he makes for a great large field play. He has 65+ receiving yards in back to back weeks
- The Jags are on a bye but what the hell Justin Blackmon? Looks like Cecil is gonna see 15+ targets a game again.
Links:
Top-5 Defense vs. Quarterback Matchups: Week 9
| Def vs. QB’s | Opp | Opp-QB1 | PaYd | PaTD | INT | FPPG | DvQB Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | MIN | Christian Ponder | 333.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 23.3 | 32 |
| San Diego | WAS | Robert Griffin III | 294.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 21.2 | 31 |
| Buffalo | KC | Alex Smith | 285 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 20.6 | 29 |
| Minnesota | DAL | Tony Romo | 297.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 20.3 | 27 |
| Tampa Bay | SEA | Russell Wilson | 263 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 20.2 | 26 |
Notes:
- Christian Ponder is a big-time GPP play this weekend. The Vikings are big underdogs on the road and Ponder will be forced to pass a ton against a defense allowing 340 passing yards per game
- Alex Smith has been playing better of late and now hits the road to face a Buffalo defense that is the 3rd worst in the NFL against QBs
- Russell Wilson a huge favorite at home against the winless Bucs and may not get a ton of passing opportunities if the Seahawks get out in front.
Links:
Quarterback Salary Ranks by Site
| Quarterbacks | FD | DS | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD | AVG | ST.DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 9.43 | 3.95 |
| Tom Brady | 10 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 14.29 | 3.5 |
| Jake Locker | 18 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 13 | 13.86 | 3.29 |
Shown above are the 3 quarterbacks with the biggest standard deviations in salary rank by site
Notes:
- Matt Ryan can be had for a steal on DraftStreet or DraftDay, compared to FanDuel and DraftKings where he’s a Top-6 QB
- The only two sites that continue to believe in Tom Brady are FanDuel and StarStreet. At DraftDay and DraftKings he’s in the bottom half of QBs
- Jake Locker is a good value on FanDuel and StarStreet this weekend
Links:
Rushing Yardage Allowed Breakdown
| Team Defense | 0-75 Yds | 75-125 Yds | 125-175 Yds | 175+ Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | 12.50% | 12.50% | 62.50% | 12.50% |
| Miami | 28.60% | 14.30% | 57.10% | 0.00% |
| Jacksonville | 0.00% | 25.00% | 50.00% | 25.00% |
| Tennessee | 14.30% | 42.90% | 42.90% | 0.00% |
| Tampa Bay | 42.90% | 14.30% | 42.90% | 0.00% |
Shown above are the 5 teams who have allowed the most games where an opponent rushes for between 125 and 175 yards
Notes:
- The Patriots have been gashed by running backs and are reeling with injuries in their front seven. Le’Veon Bell is a terrific upside pick for Week 9.
- With Zac Stacy now probable, you have to love his odds against this Titans rush defense. Especially if Kellen Clemens can’t move the ball through the air.
- Everyone wants to give up on Beast Mode after last weekend’s absolute dud but his matchup is great and Marshawn plays much better at home
Links:
Vegas Lines: Week 9
| Date | Time | Road | Home | Rd Sprd. | Hm Sprd. | Total Points | Rd. Proj. Score | Hm Proj. Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | San Diego | Washington | 0 | 0 | 51 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| Mon | 8:40PM ET | Chicago | Green Bay | 10.5 | -10.5 | 50.5 | 20 | 30.5 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Minnesota | Dallas | 9.5 | -9.5 | 48 | 19.25 | 28.75 |
Shown above are the three highest projected scoring games in the NFL this weekend
Notes:
- It’s the first week this season where there haven’t been 3 or more games with 50+ projected points
- The most intriguing has to be this San Diego-Washington game. The line is the highest of the week and the spread is dead even. It could be a shootout between RG3 and Rivers.
- Both Green Bay and Dallas are heavy favorites in high scoring games. I like to target RBs on those teams and target Quarterbacks on their opponents, so consider Ponder and McCown who should both throw a ton this weekend
Links:
Running Back Battles: Snap Counts
| RB #1 | Wk8 | RB #2 | Wk8 | RB #3 | Wk8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 32.0% | Brandon Bolden | 44.0% | ||
| Willis McGahee | 43.0% | Chris Ogbonnaya | Foswhitt Whittaker | 15.0% | |
| Zac Stacy | 76.0% | Isaiah Pead | 0.0% | Daryl Richardson | 24.0% |
| Bilal Powell | 66.0% | Chris Ivory | 18.0% | ||
| C.J. Spiller | 0.0% | Fred Jackson | 72.0% | Tashard Choice | 27.0% |
| Darren Sproles | 23.0% | Pierre Thomas | 64.0% | Khiry Robinson | 19.0% |
Shown above are running backs who have been splitting snaps AND are playing this weekend
Notes:
- How Stevan Ridley continues to get less than 1/3 of the Patriots snaps is mind-boggling. Josh McDaniels needs to get him more involved, as he’s been their most productive back and didn’t play a single snap in the 1st quarter of last week’s game.
- With no Spiller, Jackson took 72% of snaps last week. With Spiller likely to return and facing a tough KC defense, don’t expect that same output from Fjax.
- I said this last week but it’s worth reiterating, Zac Stacy is dominating the STL run game and can be trusted for 20+ weekly touches
- Pierre Thomas has knocked Darren Sproles off with his ability to run and catch out of the backfield. Khiry Robinson is even approaching Sproles in snaps per game recently.
- Two weeks ago, Chris Ivory played almost 70% of downs, and last week it was back to Powell. Based on the 10 point spread in favor of NO this weekend, I’d look for Powell to be more involved again in a pass-heavy game.
Links:
Good luck this weekend Grinders.