Best Chargers vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets for NFL Wild Card Saturday
What kind of performances can we expect on Saturday evening from Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Austin Ekeler? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his three favorite NFL prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
On Saturday night, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence will each be making their playoff debut when the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in the wild-card round. As kickoff approaches, the value on the side and the total has been stripped of its initial value, but the player prop market remains ripe with opportunity. Below, we have three spots for bettors to consider for this highly-anticipated matchup!
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Chargers vs. Jaguars – NFL Wild Card Player Props
- Justin Herbert u281.5 passing yards
- Trevor Lawrence u22.5 completions
- Austin Ekeler u93.5 rushing + receiving yards
Justin Herbert u281.5 passing yards (-110)
According to Dan Popper, Justin Herbert ranked third among all qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback this season when both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were on the field at the same time. When only Allen was on the field, Herbert ranked 25th among qualified signal callers in EPA per dropback. Herbert was only 4-for-13 to the over at this market number from Week 5 to the end of the regular season. Expect him to struggle in his playoff debut without Williams on the field, even against a beatable Jacksonville secondary unit – take the under.
Trevor Lawrence u22.5 completions (+100)
Per Pro Football Focus, Trevor Lawrence had a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 75.4% completion rate, and ranked eighth out of 25 qualified quarterbacks in passing grade when he threw the ball in less than 2.5 seconds. When he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer, he had an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 52.8% completion rate, and ranked 21st out of 25 qualified signal callers in passing grade. Notably, his splits are similar to those of Tua Tagovailoa, whom the Chargers held to 10 completions in Week 14.
Much of Jacksonville’s offense relies on rhythm and timing, with the ball coming out of Lawrence’s hands quickly. Similar to their matchup against the Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles is likely to try to disrupt the timing of those plays with press coverage at the line of scrimmage. As a result, Lawrence is unlikely to have a number of easy completions in this matchup.
Entering play, Lawrence has fallen short of this number in four of his last six contests. The under has value in this spot.
Austin Ekeler u93.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Following their Week 11 bye, the Jaguars were one of the best run defenses in the NFL, ranking sixth in rush EPA – a tough assignment for the Chargers, a team that struggles to run the ball effectively between the tackles. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun graded as better than league average in coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus, and is likely to limit Austin Ekeler’s involvement as a pass-catcher out of the backfield as well. This is a large number for Ekeler, even without Mike Williams healthy. Take the under and live with the result here.
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