Mexico vs. United States: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Mexico vs. United States Odds
| Mexico ML | +265 |
| United States ML | -350 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Date | Sun, Mar. 12 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Sunday, Mexico and the United States will meet for the fourth time in World Baseball Classic history. First pitch is at 10:00 p.m. EST on FS1 at Chase Field.
Yesterday, Mexico lost 5-4 in extra innings to Colombia. The United States won 6-2 against Great Britain, but struggled mightily with runners-in-scoring-position and ultimately underperformed expectations by a wide margin.
Ahead of tonight’s affair, oddsmakers have priced the United States as -350 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with the over/under on the total set at 10.5 runs.
Mexico
Sandoval gets the start on the mound
Patrick Sandoval took a major step forward in 2022 in the big leagues, finishing with a 2.91 ERA and a 3.09 FIP in 148.2 innings of work. However, he still experienced difficulty against right-handed batters, who batted .271 against him.
In total, Sandoval had a 2.13 FIP, 0.75 WHIP, and a .151 opponent batting average against lefties, compared to a 3.38 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, and a .271 opponent batting average against righties.
Facing a United States lineup that is likely to feature seven or more right-handed hitters, Sandoval could be in trouble early in this contest.
What to expect from Mexico’s offense
Against Colombia on Saturday, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, and Alex Verdugo each had at least one run-batted-in (RBI) for the Mexico offense. However, the bottom of the lineup did little to contribute, with the 5-through-9 hitters combining to go 4-for-25 at the plate.
Against the United States, this lineup will see better pitching and will be playing a much tougher defense. The bats could struggle in this spot.
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United States
Martinez gets the start for USA
Nick Martinez returned to the MLB in 2022 following five years overseas, and was excellent. In 106.1 innings of work, Martinez had a 3.47 ERA, 3.83 xERA, 4.43 FIP, and a 1.29 WHIP. His primary struggles came against right-handed hitters, who had a .251 batting average against him, making contact at much higher rates compared to left-handed hitters.
Mexico had six right-handed bats in the lineup in their pool play opener against Colombia. Martinez will need to be sharp in the early portion of this contest, avoiding the long ball to limit the damage done against him.
What to expect from the United States lineup
Last night, the United States scored only six runs against Great Britain, a team that was making their first appearance in the World Baseball Classic. The United States lineup was clearly pressing at the plate, going 3-for-14 with runners-in-scoring-position, leaving 12 men on base.
On Sunday, this group will get to face better pitching, which may allow them to relax mentally more than they were able to against far inferior competition on Saturday. Bettors could see fireworks from this offense at Chase Field tonight.
Mexico vs. United States – Picks & Predictions
This line is likely a market overreaction to the fact that the United States won by only four runs against Great Britain. Mexico is coming off of an extra innings loss to Colombia, a team that lacks high-end offensive potential.
The United States lacks nothing in their lineup, with no shortage of elite bats available to stack how they see fit. Facing Patrick Sandoval, expect the United States to get off to a hot start with their stack of right-handed hitters. Trust this group to bounce back after an underwhelming performance to begin pool play on Saturday.
PICK: United States -2.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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