MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 5)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We had a split for the debut article last week. Both the Guardians and the Athletics went quietly in the 2nd inning so that one cashed comfortably. Oakland will be a target all season, given the state of their lineup.
The margin for error with the George Kirby pick was as thin as possible, aaand he walked the first batter of the game. So immediately lost that one. Kirby ended up having a good start and then got crushed by Cleveland on Wednesday. It’s probably just an early-season blip, but something to keep an eye on.
I’ll be tracking the results for the year below.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 1-0
- Prop Picks: 0-1
Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-146 on FanDuel)
There is an excellent pitching matchup here, and the hitters should have a tough time in this one.
Logan Gilbert was phenomenal in his 1st start, firing 7 innings of 1-run ball with 8 strikeouts against Boston. He limits walks (95th percentile in BB% last season) and strikes out enough guys to be effective.
Freddy Peralta posted a nearly identical line in his 1st start, with 8 strikeouts and 1 ER over 6 innings. He gave up just 1 hit, but it was a solo HR to Starling Marte. Peralta is routinely above the 90th percentile in K%, and he’s cut the walks down to a reasonable level.
The Brewers offense was punchless vs. RHP last season. The Mariners did damage, but they also struck out at the 2nd-highest rate. Runs should be at a premium.
Zack Littell Under 16.5 Outs (-125 on BetMGM)
Our MLB analysts over on ScoresAndOdds are all over this game, given the weather. Winds are blowing out to center at 25 MPH with gusts as high as 30-40 MPH. That’s on top of the normal offensive benefits that come with playing at Coors Field. Littell is a decent pitcher, but this is a terrible spot. Winds are blowing out, plus Coors Field is an impossible combo for pitching.
The only way to potentially navigate this spot is missing bats, and Littell doesn’t do that. He was 23rd percentile in K% and 13th percentile in whiff rate last season. Littell’s best attribute is control (99th percentile in BB%), and that helped keep his ERA in check. The contact metrics are all below average, though. The ball should be put in play a ton here, and that could be disastrous in this situation.
Colorado is one of the weakest offenses on the road, but they’re a top-10 unit at home. The Rockies ranked 7th or better in SLG, OPS, and wOBA vs. RHP at home last season. Surviving 5 innings would be a huge win for Littell and the Rays here. Anything beyond that seems unlikely.
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