MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, August 2nd)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
I whiffed on both picks last week, one of them in spectacular fashion. Andrew Heaney had a subpar start, but his defense let him down. While Toronto scored 3 runs in the 1st inning, it could’ve easily been zero. Corey Seager fielded what should’ve been an inning-ending double play ball and tried to take it himself to 2nd base, and failed to beat the runner upon replay review. Tough luck there. Drew Thorpe got absolutely body-slammed in the 1st inning, allowing 8 ERs and recording just 2 outs. Needless to say, that first 5 innings under lost.
Time to bounce back!
Season Record
- Game Picks: 10-7-1
- Prop Picks: 10-8
Miami Marlins Under 3.5 Team Total (-122 on FanDuel)
Miami just doesn’t have much left on offense. They were already one of the weakest lineups in the league, and then they shipped out Jazz Chisholm and Josh Bell at the trade deadline. They have maybe three MLB-caliber hitters remaining, and that might be generous.
Miami’s projected lineup has just a .137 ISO and a .307 wOBA across 1,249 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. The Marlins have been the 2nd-lowest scoring offense on the year, ahead of only the White Sox.
The Marlins will have to deal with the red-hot Spencer Schwellenbach tonight. The rookie posted a 2.08 ERA in July, including three quality starts. He’s been above average in terms of strikeouts, walks, and hard contact prevention. Schwellenbach has been more of a fly-ball pitcher through 10 starts, which is fine, considering he ranks 87th percentile in barrel rate. Weak fly balls are typically turned into outs. Schwellenbach has a 4.06 ERA on the season, but his xERA (3.28), xFIP (3.47), and SIERA (3.39) all suggest he’s pitched better.
Schwellenbach will be relieved by one of the best bullpens in baseball. Atlanta’s unit ranks 2nd in ERA, WHIP, and runs allowed. Cleveland’s pen has been insane this year, but the Braves are easily the next-best group after them.
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 on FanDuel)
Consensus pick! Will Priester and the Prop Model are both on this pick for ScoresAndOdds, and I’m right there with them. Woo has dealt with nonstop injury issues this season and has serious workload questions tonight. The matchup is decent on the surface, but it actually might be pretty tough.
Woo began the year on the IL with elbow issues, was scratched from a start with vague arm soreness after coming back, then hit the IL with a hamstring strain. And those were just the official injuries, he had other instances of getting starts moved around or shortened for health reasons. His most recent issue was a recurrence of the hamstring problem, which caused him to be pulled from his last start after 4 innings and 70 pitches. Woo was cleared to start tonight, but it’d be surprising if Seattle pushed him too hard. He’s only topped 80 pitches once all season, and that was back in early June.
Philadelphia has the 8th-highest K% against righties since the start of July, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They’ve dealt with injuries to several key players and have only recently gotten back to full strength. They also added the low-strikeout bat of Austin Hays at the trade deadline and have said he’ll be an every-day player. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 21.6% K% vs. RHP this season, which would’ve ranked middle-of-the-pack in July.
Woo has a weak 17.8% strikeout rate this season, and it’s down to just 13.6% against left-handed hitters. Philadelphia typically has two above-average strikeout bats in the lineup, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. They’re both left-handed. If Woo can’t exploit the two most vulnerable bats in the lineup, it’s going to be an uphill battle for strikeouts.
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