MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, July 12th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks last Friday. No sweat with the Tigers and Reds, as Reese Olson and Carson Spiers both pitched pretty well. That 5.5 line was such an outlier, given a fairly uninteresting matchup. Kyle Freeland cruised past his strikeout prop. He’s been shockingly competent since coming back from the IL.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 8-6-1
- Prop Picks: 9-6
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-138 on FanDuel)
Hunter Brown finally had a bad start last time out, with Minnesota beating him up for 7 ERs over 6 IP. That was as many earned runs as he had allowed over his past 8 starts. It was an incredible run due in large part to Brown adding a sinker and fading his 4-seam fastball. He posted a 1.99 ERA with a 27.8% K% across 10 starts prior to the Minnesota outing following the pitch mix tweak. Brown now draws a Texas offense that ranks 24th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past 30 days.
Andrew Heaney had a 6.26 ERA in April, but has since allowed 3 ERs or less in every appearance. He’d been at about a strikeout per inning in that span but has racked up 17 Ks in his last 2 starts. Heaney made an intriguing adjustment to his slider in those outings, throwing it about 2 mph harder. The pitch has looked more like the harder, tighter version Heaney threw in 2022 when he had a ton of success with the Dodgers. If 2022 Heaney returns, he could be on the verge of a massive run.
Houston is making a ton of contact against lefties (lowest K% in the league), but that’s about it. They rank 17th in wRC+ vs. LHP since the start of May. They’re still without Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez sat out last night with a hip issue. If Alvarez is out again, it’s suddenly a pretty good matchup.
Garrett Crochet Under 8 Strikeouts (PrizePicks)
Our first pick’em play of the season! PrizePicks still has this posted at 8 – definitely a number to take advantage of, given the situation.
This play has nothing to do with the abilities of Crochet. He’s awesome! He just might not face enough hitters to even have a shot at exceeding this number. Crochet leads the league in strikeouts and strikeout rate, but all signs point to an abbreviated outing today. He’s the top starting pitcher on the trade market, and he’ll have an opportunity to showcase himself for all 29 teams at the All-Star Game next week. He’ll be doing so on only 4 days of rest, so today’s start almost has to be shorter in order to accommodate that timeline.
Pittsburgh is a tremendous matchup. They’re striking out at the 4th-highest rate against lefties since the start of May. Crochet could certainly have 9 Ks in 4 IPs, but there’s basically no margin for error there. He just doesn’t have any innings upside tonight, and the floor is extremely low.
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